Beating the VAR: Improving Swedish GDP Forecasts Using Error and Intercept Corrections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model for GDP, relative to a comparable vector error correction model (VECM) that recognizes that the data are characterized by co‐integration. In addition, an alternative forecast method, intercept correction, is considered for further comparison. Recursive out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated for both models and forecast techniques. The generated forecasts for each model are objectively evaluated by a selection of evaluation measures and equal accuracy tests. The result shows that the VECM consistently outperforms the VAR models. Further, intercept correction enhances the forecast accuracy when applied to the VECM, whereas there is no such indication when applied to the VAR model. For certain forecast horizons there is a significant difference in forecast ability between the intercept corrected VECM compared to the VAR model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于DEM的民航地空VHF通信有效覆盖仿真研究

针对起伏地形环境下求解民航地空甚高频(very high frequency, VHF)通信有效覆盖范围冗余较大、精度较低的问题,采用改进的最大斜率法进行了仿真研究。首先,考虑遮蔽角计算存在计算冗余,提出"高程清洗"方法,降低计算量。其次,考虑求解最大斜率遮蔽角存在误差,采用改进的反距离加权插值法对原始数字高程模型数据进行插值提升分辨率,提高了切点逼近点位置精度。然后,为确定遮蔽区域具体点位,提出"切点截止法"进行求解。最后,为得到准确覆盖率,采用"网格法"分析计算。实验表明,改进的最大斜率法可有效减少计算冗余,提高信号覆盖求解精度,覆盖率相对改进前分别降低9.58%、4.10%和1.26‰。改进的VHF有效覆盖范围仿真程序可为VHF地面通信站选址、飞机航线规划提供支撑。     

关于超越整函数的一个性质

利用整函数f(z)在圆|z|=r上最大模M(r)的一个性质及Hadamard三圆定理,证明了超越整函数不同于多项式的一个新特征,即limn→∞M(r)M(kr)=0,其中k>1。     

关于λ-修改的Wiener指数

令（n，△）是具有n个顶点，最大度为△的树的全体．1．△（n）是具有n个顶点且每个顶点的度是1或△的树的全体．对于任意λ≠0，本文分别在（n，△）和。1.△（n）中确定了具有最大的五一修改的Wjener指数的极值图．     

Prediction of sites under adaptive evolution in flavin-containing monooxygenases: Selection pattern revisited

Flavin-containing monooxygenase (FMO), like cytochrome P450 (CYP), is a monooxygenase that uses the reducing equivalents of NADPH to reduce one atom of molecular oxygen to water, while the other atom is used to oxidize the substrate. Recently, it was shown that some CYP isoforms have been subject to positive selection. However, it is unknown whether the highly conserved phase I detoxification enzyme, FMO, has undergone similar positive Darwinian selection. We used maximum-likelihood models of codon substitution, evolutionary fingerprinting, and cross species comparison to investigate the occurrence of adaptive evolution in FMO sequences. We used recent genomic data from a range of species, including vertebrates and invertebrates. We present the evidence for the occurrence of adaptive evolution in mammalian FMO 3, 4, 5, and fugu FMOs but not in mammalian FMO 1, FMO 2, frog FMOs, other fish FMOs and invertebrate FMOs. The sites under adaptive evolution were significantly associated with the insertion domain in mammalian FMO 5. We identified specific amino acid sites in FMOs 3–5 that are likely targets for selection based on the patterns of parallel amino acid change. The most likely role of adaptive evolution is the repair of mutations that permitted optimal NADP+ binding and improved catalytic efficiency. The occurrence of positive selection during the evolution of phase I detoxification enzymes such as FMOs 3–5 and fugu FMO suggests the occurrence of both high selection pressure acting on species within their unique habitats and significant changes in intensity and direction (forms of xenobiotics and drugs) resulting from changes in microhabitat and food.     

Vegetation effects on mean daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures over China

Changes in the daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) surface air temperatures and the associated temperature extremes have severe consequences on human society and the natural environment. In this study, we assess vegetation effects on mean Tmax and Tmin over China by computing a vegetation feedback parameter using the satellite-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed temperatures for the period 1982–2002. In all seasons, vegetation exerts a much stronger forcing on Tmax than on Tmin, and thus has a substantial effect on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over China. Significant positive feedbacks on Tmax and the DTR occupy many areas of China with the feedback parameters exceeding 1°C (0.1 NDVI)–1, while significant negative effects only appear over the summertime climatic and ecological transition zone of northern China and some other isolated areas. Also, the vegetation feedbacks are found to vary with season. In areas where significant feedbacks occur, vegetation contributes to typically 10%–30% of the total variances in Tmax, Tmin, and the DTR. These findings suggest that vegetation memory offers the potential for improving monthly-to-seasonal forecasting of Tmax and Tmin, and the associated temperature extremes over China. Meanwhile, the limitations and uncertainties of the study should be recognized.     

滑坡涌浪的数值计算及试验研究

本文从非恒定流方程出发,导出了滑坡涌浪的基本方程,建立了求解滑坡涌浪的数值模型,并通过物理模型的试验研究,论证了数值模型的合理性.试验结果表明,初始断面最大涌浪高主要与滑坡体在单位时间内入水的体积成正比,涌浪高随涌浪传播距离的增加而迅速哀减,河道糙率对其的影响并不突出,涌浪遇壁爬高及反射主要与壁面坡角及水深有关.本文建立的数学模型可用来对可能的滑坡涌浪进行一维和二维近似计算,模型试验结果可用来估算滑坡涌浪.     

高速公路车辆群模型与控制

本文提出了一个新的高速公路车辆群动态离散非线性模型,应用极大值原理推导了控制方案,并且针对我国大陆上第一条最长的高速公路——沈大公路进行了系统仿真,其结果对高速公路的管理提供了参考方案。     

刚性线型夹杂顶端的非局部应力场及破环准则

本文通过引入小范围非局部假设,将求解刚性线型夹杂顶端渐近应力变形场的问题化成了一个位移边值问题,从而直接利用经典的位移场得到了非局部的位移场.通过非局部本构关系获得了刚性线型夹杂顶端的有界的渐近应力场.利用最大剪应力准则给出了夹杂面上材料发生脱离的临界条件.结果表明材料的破坏仍由经典的应力强度因子及 J 积分控制.