土壤水力侵蚀能量力学机理的理论分析

根据力学和物质与能量原理，对土壤水力侵蚀这一自然地理现象从哲学的高度进行分析，认为水动力作用是土壤水力侵蚀的根本原因；物质与能量守恒是土壤水力侵蚀的基本法则；侵蚀与沉积并存是土壤水力侵蚀的普遍规律。提出基于能量力学机理的3个土壤水力侵蚀的新理论，即侵蚀平衡理论、最大梯度理论和水流侵蚀力理论。指出按这种思想建立的数学模型能揭示土壤水力侵蚀的规律，因而具有重要的理论和应用价值。     

可再生能源可以“再生”吗？

文章深刻分析了可再生能源的定义,仔细研究了“再生”在《辞海》和网络上的含义,并对再生的每一个含义进行了分析,最终得出可再生能源是不可以“再生”的。用“可再生能源”来概括太阳能、水能、风能、生物质能、海洋能和地热能等这类能源是不正确的。认为把“可再生能源”改为“可更新能源”更适合。     

竞争环境下新能源汽车嵌入技术服务的定价策略

构建上游技术服务商和下游新能源制造商合作创新的两级供应链,考虑两个制造商的竞争关系和权力结构,研究不同竞争模式对产品定价、产品利润的影响,为技术服务商和新能源汽车制造商的决策提供参考。结果显示,技术服务商在同等条件下会提供技术给具有竞争关系的制造商以优化利润;制造商之间的权力结构会影响技术服务商的利润,并且在“权力对等”竞争模式(FLC)下的利润最大。从制造商角度,竞争强度和技术产出贡献度均会影响产品价格。在技术产出贡献度较小的情形下,垄断模式(M)下的产品定价最高,“制造商1领导”竞争模式(SLC)和“制造商2领导”竞争模式(TLC)下的定价较高,FLC模式下的定价最低;反之亦然。算例分析进一步指出,当技术产出贡献度较小时,M模式下的产品利润大于竞争模式(C)下的产品利润;反之亦然。此外,制造商之间的权力结构会影响C模式下的产品利润,因此,制造商在C模式的占优策略是通过FLC模式实施定价或在SLC和TLC模式下取得定价领导权。     

Shift-contagion in energy markets and global crisis

This paper presents an analysis of shift-contagion in energy markets, testing whether linkages between returns in energy markets increase during crisis periods. The research presented herein demonstrates how common movement between energy markets increases due to (i) shift-contagion across energy markets, reflected by structural transmission of shocks across markets and (ii) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-market interdependences. A regime-switching model was developed to detect shift-contagion across energy markets. In the approach adopted herein, the occurrence of shift-contagion is endogenously estimated rather than being exogenously assigned. The results show that shift-contagion has been a major feature of energy markets over the last decade. Evidence is presented which demonstrates that the linkages between energy markets do not appear to be stable. These results are remarkably accurate for forecasting Brent and natural gas for horizons for up to 50 days. Conversely, for WTI (West Texas Intermediate oil) and coal, the model performs well only for forecasting very short horizons (up to 20 days). For all products, the model shows significant biases for long horizons.     

An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Paradigm for Nonstationary and Nonlinear Energy Price Time Series Forecasting

For forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear energy prices time series, a novel adaptive multiscale ensemble learning paradigm incorporating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least square support vector machines (LSSVM) with kernel function prototype is developed. Firstly, the extrema symmetry expansion EEMD, which can effectively restrain the mode mixing and end effects, is used to decompose the energy price into simple modes. Secondly, by using the fine‐to‐coarse reconstruction algorithm, the high‐frequency, low‐frequency and trend components are identified. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average is applicable to predicting the high‐frequency components. LSSVM is suitable for forecasting the low‐frequency and trend components. At the same time, a universal kernel function prototype is introduced for making up the drawbacks of single kernel function, which can adaptively select the optimal kernel function type and model parameters according to the specific data using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of all the components are aggregated into the forecasting values of energy price time series. The empirical results show that, compared with the popular prediction methods, the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of energy prices, with high accuracy both in the level and directional predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于SHPB试验的高速铁路CRTSⅡ型CA砂浆动态性能

采用分离式霍普金森压杆(Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar,SHPB)试验研究了高速铁路CRTS II型水泥乳化沥青砂浆(CA砂浆)的动态力学性能,并建立了CRTS II型CA砂浆的动态本构关系模型.结果表明:随着应变率的增大,CRTS II型CA砂浆峰值强度逐渐增加,但增加速率随应变率的增大而减小,当应变率从44.17增加至54.79 s-1和从54.79增加至108.47 s-1时,峰值强度分别增加了初始峰值强度的52.28%和7.5%,弹性模量随应变率的变化规律性较差;应变率越大,破坏时的贯通裂纹越多,碎裂程度越大;CRTS II型CA砂浆的比能量吸收随着应变率的增大而增大.所建立的动态本构模型拟合曲线与试验曲线具有较好的一致性.     

能源互联网与能源路由器

日益紧张的能源供需矛盾和环境压力等要求可再生清洁能源应该在未来能源体系中承担主要能源供给任务.能源传输技术、存储技术、信息通信以及高性能计算技术的发展为有效利用分布式、间歇性可再生能源提供了技术支持.针对类似于信息互联网式的能源互联网愿景,本文探讨了以能源路由器为核心交换装置的能源互联网实现模型,从能源路由器的实现目标,已有支撑技术和实现部署方式等方面分析了涉及的关键技术,并结合已有研究成果说明了该领域亟需突破的研究方向.     

智能电网基本理念阐释

由于可再生能源开发利用的快速发展,世界各国面临着可再生能源如何接入及充分利用等一系列问题,而智能电网则是应对这些挑战的有效战略措施.智能电网具有强大的功能、显著的综合效益和广阔的发展前景,是世界电网发展的趋势.但是智能电网不是一个单纯的技术问题,它涉及许多重要的基本理念.厘清这些理念对于科学高效地实施智能电网、对于技术创新和产业发展至关重要.为此本文从智能电网的特点、智能电网的总体设想和技术内涵、与智能电网相关的技术、智能电网的近期与远期目标以及在实施智能电网时需要注意的事项等方面阐释了智能电网的基本理念.     

基于模拟退火算法的风-光热打捆发电系统成本优化

以风-光热打捆发电系统为研究对象,完全消纳风电为研究背景,提出一种以互联系统单位发电成本最小为目标,系统正常运行为约束,模拟退火算法优化光热电站出力为手段的优化控制策略.仿真结果表明,在允许条件下,所提出的优化控制策略可以有效降低风-光热打捆发电系统的单位发电成本.     

一类Cantor-Moran谱测度的极大正交集

该文讨论了一类Cantor-Moran 谱测度. 利用极大映射刻画了所对应的平方可积函数空间中所有的极大正交集, 这为寻找此函数空间更多类型的谱提供了很好的渠道, 也便于傅里叶级数收敛性的研究.