近断层长周期地震动前向性效应对峰值影响研究

筛选了断层距不大于15km的具有前向性效应的长周期近断层地震记录,分类汇总建立了统计分析数据样本库,对长周期地震动的竖向分量和水平向分量峰值比进行了分析,研究了震级、脉冲周期、不同分量对峰值加速度比的影响。在此基础上,采用前期建立的回归分析模型,对长周期地震动竖向分量和水平向两个分量的峰值加速度进行了回归分析,拟合给出了峰值参数与震级和断层距的衰减关系式,通过拟合曲线与数据样本的峰值实测值对比,说明拟合关系式在一定的范围内可以用于近断层长周期地震峰值的预测。     

长达坂沟泥石流桩板墙拦挡结构极限抗冲压数值分析

近年来,中国接连发生的数次严重泥石流给人民的生命财产造成了严重损失,每年中国国土等部门均会投入大量的资金进行泥石流的治理。本文以长达坂沟泥石流灾害防治工程为背景,采用FLAC3D及理想弹塑性本构模型计算分析了长达坂沟泥石流桩板墙拦挡结构的极限抗冲压能力。通过分析计算结果得出以下结论:(1)在泥石流极限冲压下,混凝土桩板墙只是拉伸破坏,没有出现剪切破坏;(2)数值计算出的长达坂沟泥石流的桩板墙极限抗冲压力大于经验公式计算出的泥石流整体冲击压力;(3)挡板中下部和桩的中间部分拉伸破坏拉最严重,桩身最大位移发生在桩顶端;(4)桩和土体之间设置接触面和不设置接触面得出的桩板墙极限抗冲压力有一定的差距。     

长纤维高速过滤器的运行动力学研究

为对长纤维高速过滤器的模拟分析、运行控制及效果预测提供理论依据,在深入分析长纤维高速过滤器深层过滤机理及积泥形态的基础上,结合试验观察,借鉴半经验、半理论模型,建立了用以表征长纤维高速过滤器运行特性的水头损失方程及传质动力学模型.通过大量试验测定和对初始滤速为30 m/h时的模型计算与实测结果的比较表明,除沉淀出水过滤前期滤出水浊度计算值与实测值误差较大外,其余各范围计算值均吻合良好,证明了假设的合理性及模型的有效性.     

Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models

This paper deals with the analysis of the number of tourists travelling to the Canary Islands by means of using different seasonal statistical models. Deterministic and stochastic seasonality is considered. For the latter case, we employ seasonal unit roots and seasonally fractionally integrated models. As a final approach, we also employ a model with possibly different orders of integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. All these models are compared in terms of their forecasting ability in an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results in the paper show that a simple deterministic model with seasonal dummy variables and AR(1) disturbances produce better results than other approaches based on seasonal fractional and integer differentiation over short horizons. However, increasing the time horizon, the results cannot distinguish between the model based on seasonal dummies and another using fractional integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长波限下氯化铯晶格波的运动特征

利用力常数可表成张量形式计算动力学矩阵D(K→) ,讨论了长波限下氯化铯晶体格波的运动特征。     

单点系泊物体长周期运动的统计研究

本文根据实测数据分析了单点系泊物体绕系泊点作360°回转的概率,统计了系泊船船向与风向的相关性。结果表明,在一般海域作360°回转的概率是很小的;船向与风向的相关系数为0.826,因此作者认为,引起360°回转的主要原因是风,实用上可以根据主风向的回转概率或风玫瑰图来推断单点系泊物体的回转概率。     

海南省大学生50m跑与立定跳远间运动技能和运动素质迁移的研究(Ⅰ)

运用海南师范学院课程考试质量分析系统 (正式版 1.9)及文献资料法、数理统计等方法对海南省大学生 5 0m跑与立定跳远间运动技能和运动素质的迁移规律进行了研究 ,结果表明 ,两个项目之间存在着许多相互迁移的特性 ,且 5 0m跑对立定跳远的一般迁移更为明显 ;同时也分析了两个项目之间在某些技术细节上存在差异而产生一定干扰的原因 ;对影响或干扰项目间运动素质正常线性相关关系之原因进行分析 .指出 :(1)运用迁移理论 ,加强短跑训练是提高立定跳远成绩的有效途径 ;(2 )加强技术动作的教学力度并经常地分析概括是提高成绩和减小误差的有效办法 .     

基于IMU与sEMG混合信号的实时手势分类算法研究

为了提高表面肌电信号(surface electromyography,sEMG)的手势分类准确率,通过惯性测量单元(inertial measurement unit,IMU)与采集姿态信号与sEMG的混合信号,提出了GRUBiLSTM双层网络的实时手势分类算法。第1层门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)利用能量组合算子特征对混合信号进行突变点检测,定位运动态数据起始点;第2层双向长短时记忆循环神经网络(Bi-directional long short term memory,BiLSTM)使用能量核相图特征对运动态混合信号进行2个方向10种手势的分类。通过离线模型优化,分类算法识别时间低于40 ms,突变点检测精度88.7%以上,手势分类准确率为85%,信息传输率(informationtranslaterate, ITR)达到89.9 bits/min,与基于机器学习的分类算法相比,在准确率与计算效率上具有优势。     

Do Long‐Run Theory Restrictions Help in Forecasting?

Do long‐run equilibrium relations suggested by economic theory help to improve the forecasting performance of a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM)? In this paper we try to answer this question in the context of a two‐country model developed for the Canadian and US economies. We compare the forecasting performance of the exactly identified cointegrated VECMs to the performance of the over‐identified VECMs with the long‐run theory restrictions imposed. We allow for model uncertainty and conduct this comparison for every possible combination of the cointegration ranks of the Canadian and US models. We show that the over‐identified structural cointegrated models generally outperform the exactly identified models in forecasting Canadian macroeconomic variables. We also show that the pooled forecasts generated from the over‐identified models beat most of the individual exactly identified and over‐identified models as well as the VARs in levels and in differences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大跨度无粘结预应力砼无梁楼盖的应用

以具体工程实例，介绍了大距度无粘结预应力无梁楼盖这一新工艺的特点及施工程序。