基于光纤传感技术的桥梁承载力快速评定法

为了满足战时部队车辆装备通过民用桥梁时进行安全性快速评定的要求,在分析已有的旧桥承载力评定方法优缺点的基础上,提出了一种基于光纤传感技术的快速评定法。根据战时特点给出了进行承载力实时评估的基本标准,叙述了其实施流程和基本原理,并进行了室内模型试验,验证了该方法的可行性。结果表明,该方法符合平战结合的要求,战时便于实施,能较准确地评定既有桥梁的承载力。     

丹东月亮岛大桥稳定性分析

丹东月亮岛大桥是宽跨比为1／22．44的下承式钢管混凝土系杆拱桥,采用单片桁架式X形拱肋,利用桥面板内张拉钢铰线作为拱的系杆,以实际工程为背景,通过空间有限元法对其稳定性进行了研究,结果表明：拱肋的最优内倾角度与横撑的刚度、型式和布置位置等因素有关,最终与拱的整体横向刚度有关;在满足行车净空的要求下K撑应该尽量靠近拱脚位置,其对拱桥的横向稳定性起到比较重要的作用。     

微桥量热计测量铝薄膜热容

用表面硅微加工工艺研制了一种用于薄膜热容测量的新型微桥量热计,热性能测试与分析表明,微桥量热计温度响应快,温度均匀性较好,采用脉冲量热法,通过测量量热计的热功耗、瞬态温度以及稳态热功耗,可计算量热计和样品薄膜的热容．在真空中300～420K测量了40～1150nm厚的Al薄膜热容,并测量了样品的贡量,获得了样品的比热容,1150nm厚的Al薄膜比热容与Al体材料比热容的文献值吻合较好．随着厚度的减小,Al薄膜的比热容增强,这种现象在高温时更为显著．     

钢纤维混凝土桥面铺装层的细观应力破坏分析

基于复合材料力学和线弹性断裂力学,简化了桥面铺装层及桥面板体系的力学模型,建立了修正的剪滞控制方程组.将模型裂缝区及远场的应力、位移条件合理转换为所建立计算模式的求解边界条件,进而得到了桥面铺装层和桥面板各子层的位移分布函数.运用能量法则,考虑温度效应对桥面铺装层的影响,得到了桥面铺装层破坏应力的解析解.运用该计算模式对某桥桥面铺装层的破坏进行了仿真分析,证实了该方法的适用性.     

Do Long‐Run Theory Restrictions Help in Forecasting?

Do long‐run equilibrium relations suggested by economic theory help to improve the forecasting performance of a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM)? In this paper we try to answer this question in the context of a two‐country model developed for the Canadian and US economies. We compare the forecasting performance of the exactly identified cointegrated VECMs to the performance of the over‐identified VECMs with the long‐run theory restrictions imposed. We allow for model uncertainty and conduct this comparison for every possible combination of the cointegration ranks of the Canadian and US models. We show that the over‐identified structural cointegrated models generally outperform the exactly identified models in forecasting Canadian macroeconomic variables. We also show that the pooled forecasts generated from the over‐identified models beat most of the individual exactly identified and over‐identified models as well as the VARs in levels and in differences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Price–Dividend Ratios and Stock Price Predictability

A long‐standing puzzle to financial economists is the difficulty of outperforming the benchmark random walk model in out‐of‐sample contests. Using data from the USA over the period of 1872–2007, this paper re‐examines the out‐of‐sample predictability of real stock prices based on price–dividend (PD) ratios. The current research focuses on the significance of the time‐varying mean and nonlinear dynamics of PD ratios in the empirical analysis. Empirical results support the proposed nonlinear model of the PD ratio and the stationarity of the trend‐adjusted PD ratio. Furthermore, this paper rejects the non‐predictability hypothesis of stock prices statistically based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests and economically based on the criteria of expected real return per unit of risk. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time‐Varying Parameters

Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time‐varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time varying. It is shown that a two‐state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time‐varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time‐varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one‐step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Apolipoprotein M affecting lipid metabolism or just catching a ride with lipoproteins in the circulation?

Apolipoprotein M (apoM) is a novel apolipoprotein found mainly in high-density lipoproteins (HDL). Its function is yet to be defined. ApoM (25 kDa) has a typical lipocalin ?-barrel fold and a hydrophobic pocket. Retinoids bind apoM but with low affinity and may not be the natural ligands. ApoM retains its signal peptide, which serves as a hydrophobic anchor to the lipoproteins. This prevents apoM from being lost in the urine. Approximately 5% of HDL carries an apoM molecule. ApoM in plasma (1 μM) correlates strongly with both low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and HDL cholesterol, suggesting a link to cholesterol metabolism. However, in casecontrol studies, apoM levels in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and controls were similar, suggesting apoM levels not to affect the risk for CHD in humans. Experiments in transgenic mice suggested apoM to have antiatherogenic properties; possible mechanisms include increased formation of pre-? HDL, enhanced cholesterol mobilization from foam cells, and increased antioxidant properties. Received 28 November 2008; received after revision 15 December 2008; accepted 16 December 2008     

Functions of reticulons in plants: What we can learn from animals and yeasts

Reticulons (RTNs) are membrane-spanning proteins sharing a typical domain named reticulon homology domain (RHD). RTN genes have been identified in all eukaryotic organisms examined so far, and the corresponding proteins have been found predominantly associated to the endoplasmic reticulum membranes. In animal and yeast, in which knowledge of the protein family is more advanced, RTNs are involved in numerous cellular processes such as apoptosis, cell division and intracellular trafficking. Up to now, a little attention has been paid to their plant counterparts, i.e., RTNLBs. In this review, we summarize the data available for RTNLB proteins and, using the data obtained with animal and yeast models, several functions for RTNLBs in plant cells are proposed and discussed. Received 01 July 2008; received after revision 08 September 2008; accepted 30 September 2008