水电站厂房排架的内力计算

在分析水电站排架结构形式的基础上,优选内力计算方法,修正抗剪刚度系数和转动刚度,根据结构的实际受力状态,考虑各种影响因素,建立了一般水电站厂房排架的数学模型.     

The Role of Survey Data in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth

This paper evaluates the impact of new releases of financial, real activity and survey data on nowcasting euro area gross domestic product (GDP). We show that all three data categories positively impact on the accuracy of GDP nowcasts, whereby the effect is largest in the case of real activity data. When treating variables as if they were all published at the same time and without any time lag, financial series lose all their significance, while survey data remain an important ingredient for the nowcasting exercise. The subsequent analysis shows that the sectoral coverage of survey data, which is broader than that of timely available real activity data, as well as their information content stemming from questions focusing on agents' expectations, are the main sources of the ‘genuine’ predictive power of survey data. When the forecast period is restricted to the 2008–09 financial crisis, the main change is an enhanced forecasting role for financial data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国旅行社应对旅游危机的决策分析和处理机制研究--以SARS危机事件为例

旅游危机严重影响旅游业的健康发展,应当引起高度重视.旅行社是旅游业的主体构成,是旅游者和旅游目的地之间的桥梁.为科学合理处理旅游危机,旅行社要建立危机管理制度和预警系统,提高员工危机意识,以便通过层次决策分析方法确定应采取的措施,最大限度地规避风险和减少损失.     

19世纪后期美国农业危机成因探析

19世纪晚期在美国农业现代化取得巨大成就的过程中爆发了持续二三十年的农业危机.造成这次农业危机的直接原因是由于盲目扩大生产导致农产品供过于求,而垄断资本的控制和剥削、联邦政府的土地、财政金融政策等也对这次农业危机的发生起了推波助澜的作用.     

一种网络式码流监测仪的设计方案研究

介绍了一种网络式码流监测仪的设计技术和方案,整个系统由码流监测仪、服务器和客户机等部分组成,相互之间通过WAN/LAN连接,采用SNMP工业标准协议;通过这种开放式的监测平台,可以在网络环境下多机连接进行多点监测,实现高速码流实时采集和捕获,并且进行数据触发、过滤。     

王安忆创作主题的多元呈现

王安忆的创作风格跟随时代的变化而发生变化,将王安忆作品与社会文化背景相结合,从"雯雯系列"、寻根文学、先锋文学、女性文学、城市文学五个主题的变化中,既体现出对潮流的追随,又执着地坚守着自己的本心.她的创作不仅是自我的突破,而且真实地反映了时代的变迁.     

Forecasting the Daily Time‐Varying Beta of European Banks During the Crisis Period: Comparison Between GARCH Models and the Kalman Filter

This intention of this paper is to empirically forecast the daily betas of a few European banks by means of four generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and the Kalman filter method during the pre‐global financial crisis period and the crisis period. The four GARCH models employed are BEKK GARCH, DCC GARCH, DCC‐MIDAS GARCH and Gaussian‐copula GARCH. The data consist of daily stock prices from 2001 to 2013 from two large banks each from Austria, Belgium, Greece, Holland, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We apply the rolling forecasting method and the model confidence sets (MCS) to compare the daily forecasting ability of the five models during one month of the pre‐crisis (January 2007) and the crisis (January 2013) periods. Based on the MCS results, the BEKK proves the best model in the January 2007 period, and the Kalman filter overly outperforms the other models during the January 2013 period. Results have implications regarding the choice of model during different periods by practitioners and academics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

欧美股票市场对我国股票市场的传染效应研究——基于次贷与欧债危机背景

近年来,金融危机频频爆发且易表现出传染性,这使得金融传染引起国内外学者的高度关注.本文选取合适的动态条件相关模型研究欧美市场与A股、港股市场的条件相关性,结合内生多重结构突变模型与T检验方法划分危机传染期与平稳期,选用考虑外部影响的CCK模型研究A股、港股市场的羊群行为,随后,引入收益率分散度指标,研究两次危机的羊群行为传染渠道.研究结果表明:港股市场受两次危机传染的速度均快于A股市场,受传染的持续时间均长于A股市场,但受传染的程度均弱于A股市场:次贷危机传染程度强于欧债危机的传染程度,但传染的持续时间短于欧债危机:羊群行为传染渠道是两次危机对A股、港股市场的传染渠道之一.     

现代奥林匹克运动面临的危机及其对北京奥运会的启示

现代奥林匹克运动在其百余年的发展历程中曾经并正在经历着经济危机、政治危机、道德危机、安全危机等生死存亡的考验．北京要成功举办奥运会就必须开源节流,秉持勤俭办奥运的原则;开展积极外交,深化国内改革,为北京奥运会的成功举办创设良好的国内外环境;完善制度建设,防范竞技体育领域的道德风险;加强安全防范措施。