用Excel建立灰色数列预测模型的研究

灰色系统在上个世纪八十年代首次提出后已经得到了广泛的应用，对社会、经济各领域作出了极大的贡献。灰色预测是灰色系统理论的重要组成部分，但由于其建模时需要进行大量复杂的数学运算，增加了数据处理的难度，本文通过Excel提供的矩阵运算和规划求解功能实现了用Excel软件建立灰色数列预测模型PGM（1，1），并提高了预测精度。     

随机利率下时间盈余模型的破产概率

本文首先介绍了文献[3]在一般化破产模型基础上构造的时间盈余模型，并进一步讨论了此模型下的具有随机利率因素的破产概率，使得相应的破产概率更具实际意义。     

聚变包层结构特征分析及其实现方法研究

建立包层信息模型是聚变反应堆包层研究发展的需要,而包层几何模型建模是其基础,三维参数化特征化CAD系统都要求在创建产品数据模型之前对产品进行结构特征分析和参数化描述,在分析影响包层结构特征的因素基础上,给出了主要影响因素与包层结构特征之间的关系,对相应的结构特征进行了定义和参数化描述,并指出了各种结构特征在特征造型系统中的实现方法.     

空间自回归模型中的强相合性

(n,n)表示在空间自回归模型Zij=αZi-1,j βZi,j-1-αβZi-1,j-1 εij中参数(α,β)的Guass-Newton估计,根据已知的结论:当α=β=1时,{n3/2)((^αn)-α,(^β)n-β)}收敛于二元正态随机向量分布即limn{n3/2(^αn)-α,(^β)n-β))′}(D→)N2(0,Γ),其中Γ=diag(2,2).利用双参数强鞅收敛定理,可以证明,当r<(3)/(2)时,nr(n-α,n-β)→(-0).a.e.     

露天矿行车事故频次的灰色预测

针对露天矿运输系统行车事故发生频次数据少的缺点,采用了灰色系统理论对其进行灰建模,灰预测.验证了灰建模的可行性,阐述了灰建模基本步骤,通过实例分析了该方法的有效性和适用性,从而为露天矿调度运输系统超前采取防范措施,提供了依据,将事故损失减少到最低,做到防患于未然.     

装车站运输作业过程的可靠性研究

针对装车站站停时间的分布问题,采用分析方法,对装车站站停时间的分布规律及影响因素进行分析,探讨提高装车站作业过程可靠性的措施.根据装车站大量翔实的数据,在统计站停时间、装车时间、待机时间的分布规律基础上,建立了可靠性模型,进行了可靠性分析计算.研究结果表明,装车站作业过程的可靠性主要受装车作业时间、机务作业时间的影响.     

The Application of Similarity Theory in Designing Large Deflection Buckling Spring-Piece

Large Deflection Buckling Spring-Piece (LDBSP) refers to the deformation of an end-fixed flat spring-piece under normal loadings. Plastic deformation usually appears in LDBSP.The static characteristic curve is very particular, because within its linear deflection region, the spring constant can be designed to be any value from minus to plus. With its obvious advantages of large liner deflection range, low spring constant, etc., the LDBSP has now been extensively applied to the exciting device, low-frequency shock absorbers and so on. The static characteristic curve of LDBSP belongs to the nonlinear problem of an arch with varying section. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain it theoretically. The formulae for designing LDBSP have not been set up yet. In this study,the authors apply similarity theory to analyze the liner deflection range A and the spring constant K, and derive the relationship of similarity criterion, finally obtain a set of formulae for designing LDBSP by model test and the least square method, which can be applied in engineering design.Through the research, it is proved that it is unnecessary to keep geometrical similarity of spring-piece shape. This fact extends the application scope of the formulae. The proposed formulae for designing LDBSP thereby can be applied for any dimensions within the range allowed.     

Packet Queueing Delay in Resilient Packet Ring Network Nodes

The packet queueing delay is one of the most important performance measures of a data network and is also a significant factor to be considered in the scheduling buffer design for a network node. This paper presents a traffic queueing model for resilient packet ring (RPR) networks and a method for quantitatively analyzing queueing delays in RPR nodes. The method was used to calculate the average queueing delays of different priority traffic for different transit queue modes. The simulations show that, in the transmit direction, lower priority traffic is delayed more than higher priority traffic, and that Class-A traffic is delayed more in a single-queue ring than in a dual-queue ring. In the transit direction, the secondary transit buffer in the dual-queue ring contributes more to the traffic delay than the primary transit buffer in the single-queue ring, which in turn causes more delay than the primary transit buffer in the dual-queue ring.     

SCS模型在密云石匣试验小区降雨径流量估算中的应用

利用密云县石匣小流域 2 0 0 1年的 6场降雨及径流观测数据 ,应用SCS模型计算参数Ia 在不同水平下 2 2个试验小区的径流量 ,依据实测值对计算值进行了调整 ,得出了适合该小区的参数CN的范围 ,并将参数进行检验 ,得到了较好的结果 .     

石油企业科技进步模型的改进

传统技术进步模型在评价科技进步贡献率时 ,没有动态考虑通货膨胀和成本上扬等因素 ,忽视了时间价值的影响。根据石油企业的生产特点 ,对一般技术进步模型 (即索洛生产函数 )进行了相应的改进。既考虑了产出资源的自然递减 ,又考虑了通货膨胀及生产开发难度对投入资金的影响 ,这就保证了石油行业在投入产出上的匹配及价格上的一致。用改进后的模型对石油系统的 19个油田的科技进步贡献率进行了测算 ,其结果符合实际