16位单片机在机场驱鸟器系统中的应用

针对某机场原有驱鸟器系统驱鸟声音单调的现状,采用嵌入式技术和数字语音技术,以16位单片机为内核,设计机场驱鸟器系统升级改造方案,并研发了具有软件升级功能的驱鸟器芯片,完成了跑道南北两侧24组驱鸟器的升级改造.系统可以提供9种具有明显驱鸟效果的声音和多种驱鸟声音组合,经现场测试表明,驱鸟效果明显.     

基于选煤厂局域网的煤质信息监测与查询系统

煤质监测系统由Delphi 6.0编制,运行于选煤厂内部的局域网中,是基于对兖矿集团济宁三号选煤厂在线测灰仪实时监测、查询系统进行的研究设计,主要实现煤质数据的网络发布和共享.系统采用友好的图形用户界面:查询信息由用户从键盘输入,结果以表格输出,历史数据以图形曲线输出.该系统已投入运行.实践证明不但可以为选煤厂提供准确、完整的煤质检测和化验信息,而且有力地推动选煤厂的信息化工作.     

导引头稳定平台离散时间预设性能控制

针对现有离散时间预设性能控制方法对滑模趋近律依赖度高、抖振缺陷明显的难题,通过创建一种摆脱了滑模控制的设计新框架,为拦截弹导引头稳定平台提出了一种离散时间预设性能控制新方法。首先,设计一种离散时间性能函数对跟踪误差的收敛轨迹进行包络约束;然后,定义一种离散时间转换误差并将其用于构造一种新颖的反馈函数;设计离散时间控制律对新开发的反馈函数而不是转换误差进行镇定,不仅保证了所有跟踪误差均具有期望的预设性能,还摆脱了控制算法对滑模趋近律的依赖性,从根本上解决了控制抖振难题;最后,通过数值对比仿真验证了所提方法的有效性与优势。     

Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

超支化不饱和聚(酰胺-酯)的改性及热分解动力学

采用不同链长的十四酰氯和十八酰氯对超支化不饱和聚(酰胺-酯)(MHBP)的端羟基进行原位端基改性,制备出2种改性超支化聚合物,用傅立叶红外光谱(FTIR)、热重分析(TGA)、黏度法等对其结构及性能进行表征,并研究了它们的热分解行为及其热分解动力学.结果表明,其热分解反应不是一级反应,改性超支化聚合物的热稳定性与末端烷烃链的长度有关,用Ozawa法求出了热分解表观活化能.     

应用精密三角高程测量实现跨河水准的研究

文章从三角高程测量单向观测的高差计算公式入手,分析了三角高程测量的误差来源,推导了跨河水准网中测距三角高程的精度估算公式;在此基础上,得出了减弱各项误差从而提高精度的一些结论。结合目前的自动化全站仪,探讨了精密三角高程测量实现精密跨河水准的可行性和便利性,最后指出了在实施跨河水准测量时应注意的一些事项。     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.     

Glycogen synthase kinase 3β and Alzheimer’s disease: pathophysiological and therapeutic significance

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction and is the leading cause of dementia in the elderly. Several studies have implicated molecular and cellular signaling cascades involving the serine-threonine kinase, glycogen synthase kinase β(GSK-3β) in the pathogenesis of AD. GSK-3β may play an important role in the formation of neurofibrillary tangles and senile plaques, the two classical pathological hallmarks of AD. In this review, we discuss the interaction between GSK-3β and several key molecules involved in AD, including the presenilins, amyloid precursor protein, tau, and β-amyloid. We identify the signal transduction pathways involved in the pathogenesis of AD, including Wnt, Notch, and the PI3 kinase/Akt pathway. These may be potential therapeutic targets in AD. Received 19 December 2005; received after revision 24 January 2006; accepted 6 February 2006     

On the mechanism of inhibition of p27 degradation by 15-deoxy-Δ12,14-prostaglandin J 2 in lymphoblasts of Alzheimer’s disease patients

It has been proposed that neuroinflammation, among other factors, may trigger an aberrant neuronal cell cycle re-entry leading to neuronal death. Cell cycle disturbances are also detectable in peripheral cells from Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients. We previously reported that the anti-inflammatory 15- deoxy-Δ^12,14-prostaglandin J ₂ (15d-PGJ ₂) increased the cellular content of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p27, in lymphoblasts from AD patients. This work aimed at elucidating the mechanisms of 15d-PGJ ₂-induced p27 accumulation. Phosphorylation, half-life, and the nucleo-cytoplasmic traffic of p27 protein were altered by 15d-PGJ2 by mechanisms dependent on PI3K/Akt activity. 15d-PGJ ₂ prevents the calmodulin-dependent Akt overactivation in AD lymphoblasts by blocking its binding to the 85-kDa regulatory subunit of PI3K. These effects of 15d-PGJ ₂ were not mimicked by 9,10-dihydro-15-deoxy-Δ^12,14- prostaglandin J ₂, suggesting that 15d-PGJ ₂ acts independently of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ activation and that the α,β-unsaturated carbonyl group in the cyclopentenone ring of 15d-PGJ ₂ is a requisite for the observed effects. Received 14 July 2008; received after revision 2 September 2008; accepted 12 September 2008