19世纪后期美国农业危机成因探析

19世纪晚期在美国农业现代化取得巨大成就的过程中爆发了持续二三十年的农业危机.造成这次农业危机的直接原因是由于盲目扩大生产导致农产品供过于求,而垄断资本的控制和剥削、联邦政府的土地、财政金融政策等也对这次农业危机的发生起了推波助澜的作用.     

Forecasting the Daily Time‐Varying Beta of European Banks During the Crisis Period: Comparison Between GARCH Models and the Kalman Filter

This intention of this paper is to empirically forecast the daily betas of a few European banks by means of four generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and the Kalman filter method during the pre‐global financial crisis period and the crisis period. The four GARCH models employed are BEKK GARCH, DCC GARCH, DCC‐MIDAS GARCH and Gaussian‐copula GARCH. The data consist of daily stock prices from 2001 to 2013 from two large banks each from Austria, Belgium, Greece, Holland, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We apply the rolling forecasting method and the model confidence sets (MCS) to compare the daily forecasting ability of the five models during one month of the pre‐crisis (January 2007) and the crisis (January 2013) periods. Based on the MCS results, the BEKK proves the best model in the January 2007 period, and the Kalman filter overly outperforms the other models during the January 2013 period. Results have implications regarding the choice of model during different periods by practitioners and academics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

欧美股票市场对我国股票市场的传染效应研究——基于次贷与欧债危机背景

近年来,金融危机频频爆发且易表现出传染性,这使得金融传染引起国内外学者的高度关注.本文选取合适的动态条件相关模型研究欧美市场与A股、港股市场的条件相关性,结合内生多重结构突变模型与T检验方法划分危机传染期与平稳期,选用考虑外部影响的CCK模型研究A股、港股市场的羊群行为,随后,引入收益率分散度指标,研究两次危机的羊群行为传染渠道.研究结果表明:港股市场受两次危机传染的速度均快于A股市场,受传染的持续时间均长于A股市场,但受传染的程度均弱于A股市场:次贷危机传染程度强于欧债危机的传染程度,但传染的持续时间短于欧债危机:羊群行为传染渠道是两次危机对A股、港股市场的传染渠道之一.     

现代奥林匹克运动面临的危机及其对北京奥运会的启示

现代奥林匹克运动在其百余年的发展历程中曾经并正在经历着经济危机、政治危机、道德危机、安全危机等生死存亡的考验．北京要成功举办奥运会就必须开源节流,秉持勤俭办奥运的原则;开展积极外交,深化国内改革,为北京奥运会的成功举办创设良好的国内外环境;完善制度建设,防范竞技体育领域的道德风险;加强安全防范措施。     

超越自我的荆棘之路——论《金色笔记》中安娜的精神探索

多丽丝.莱辛的《金色笔记》自问世以来不断受到评论界的关注,人们对它的研究大部分从作品的形式和内容层面着手.在研究内容这一领域,人们对它的解读首先是从女性主义的角度入手的.毋庸置疑,《金色笔记》叙述的是女主人公安娜的精神发展历程,不可避免地有女性主义色彩的存在,但是,这部作品的伟大之处不仅是因为作品的女性视角,更重要的是作家莱辛站在“入”这个更广泛的角度来探索主人公的精神发展历程.     

金融危机背景下影响购房者消费心理之因素探析

分析了金融危机大背景下影响我国消费者购房心理的主要因素,阐述了目前国家推动房地产行业健康发展所出台的优惠政策,提出从消费者层面恢复购房者信心的一些想法。     

论我国房地产市场再次调整的可能性

结合2008年金融危机以来我国房地产市场调整的一些主要特征及现状,尝试从经济发展与房地产市场发展的历史规律中寻求未来我国房地产市场的发展趋势,从而有助于更好地理解房地产行业的短期波动和长期发展。     

“后金融危机”下广东省外向型企业策略选择——基于风险管理视角

2008年由美国“次贷危机”引发的金融危机以迅雷之势于全球蔓延,中国不可避免遭受巨大影响.基于“后金融危机时代”的严峻国际形势和经济环境,中国尤其是处于前沿的广东省外向型企业如何应对危机,是当前急需解决的重大课题.应从风险管理角度切入分析其受影响状况及对原因进行深入剖析,并着重从风险预防维度提出建议,从而提升该类企业整体抗风险能力,稳定运行.     

高职院校困难学生心理危机干预的策略研究

高职学生安全管理体系是一个复杂系统,困难学生心理危机干预体系是高职学生安全管理系统的内容之一。困难学生群体因家庭困难、自尊心强、心理负担重、易受外界伤害等特点自身易诱发心理危机。学校应构建困难学生心理危机干预体系,当心理危机出现时,学生安全管理系统应给予及时、有效、准确的干预和帮扶。