鲁迅小说中觉醒知识分子的悲剧宿命

本文从知识分子的角度对鲁迅作品中首先觉醒的知识分子的悲剧结局进行了重新分析,并从知识分子的使命、社会立足点和话语资格以及文化选择上的困惑诸方面详细分析了这一批知识分子之所以不得不以悲剧结束的必然原因。     

Developing the methodology of TSI: From the oblique use of methods to creative design

During the last 13 years, a dialogue has been conducted in the Critical Systems literature on the subject of choice betwen methods. However, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, researchers went in two separate directions. One direction involved an exploration of the “creative design of methods.” This is when the problem situation is understood in terms of a series of systemically interrelated research questions, each of which might need to be addressed using a different method, or part of a method. A synthesis is generated that allows each individual research question to be addressed as part of a whole system of questions. The other research direction involved the development of “Total Systems Intervention” (TSI), a meta-methodology that, amongst other things, encourages the creative exploration of the problem situation prior to the choice of methods. One of the latest innovations in TSI is a theory of the “oblique” use of methods. This is the use of methods for purposes other than those they were originally designed for. However, it is argued here that all the case studies that have been subject to an “oblique” interpretation can be better explained if they are seen as examples of the creative design of methods. We can therefore bring together the two strands of research that have hitherto been pursued separately in the Critical Systems literature. it is suggested that TSI can be enhanced by an understanding of the creative design of methods because the latter allows us to explain the purposive, flexible, and responsive way in which TSI is most successfully used in practice.     

模糊偏好下社会选择问题的研究

本文研究和探讨了社会选择中的模糊偏好，在一组模糊理性条件下证明了一个不可能性定理，并将其中的独裁者区分为一般、α－和完全三种，分析了这些独裁者与偏好传递性间的关系，在一特殊传递性下还找到了一个存在α－独裁者或完全独裁者的模糊集结规则．最后，给出了一个应用例子     

Diffusion of new products in risk-sensitive markets

Diffusion of new products may be deterred by consumers' uncertainties about how they will perform. This paper introduces a decision-theoretic framework for modeling the diffusion of consumables, in which consumers choose between a current and new product so as to maximize expected utility. Consumers that are sufficiently risk-averse delay adoption, and change their prior uncertainties in a Bayesian fashion using information generated by early adopters. Under certain assumptions about the underlying consumer choice process and the market dynamics, the result is logistic growth in the share of consumers that choose the new product. The model can be generalized by allowing for consumer heterogeneity with respect to performance of the new product. The paper concludes with a discussion of applications for market forecasting, design of market trials and other extensions.     

排水管网的联合方式及趟数的合理选择

本文较系统地介绍了煤矿排水管网优化后的联合方式及其特点;论述了能耗与排水管网联合方式的内在联系;运用图解计算法求最佳排水管径的方法;利用理论上的等流量原理和装置效率高的原则确定及分析了排水管网趟数合理选择的步骤和方法,并列举了工作泵和工作管路趟数之间的数量关系,供工程中选用参考.     

考虑家庭成员的早高峰出行行为分析

早高峰出行行为一般包括：通勤和通学.随着私家车拥有率的提高，在早高峰期间，家庭成员乘坐同一辆车，从居住地出发到达多个目的地的现象越来越普遍，如：通勤者开车先将小孩送到学校，继而前行去往工作地上班.本文基于Y型道路汇流网络，考虑个人通勤和家庭通勤两类出行者，构建高峰期出行选择均衡模型，分析通勤者的出发时间选择.在用户均衡状态下，每类通勤者都不能通过单方面改变自己的行为选择而使其出行成本变得更小.最后，通过数值算例对理论结论进行了验证和分析.     

加快我国山区县域经济发展的战略选择

加快我国山区县域经济发展对于解决“三农”问题,全面建设小康社会有着重要的意义.在加快我国山区县域经济发展的过程中,应该遵循四个原则,处理好五个关系,采取一系列措施.     

居住地、出行方式与出发时间联合选择的

为刻画居住地、出行方式与出发时间的联合选择行为,选取房价、出行耗时、出行费用及个人属性等作为效用变量,以居住地选择子集合、出行方式选择子集合和出发时间选择子集合的组合作为模型的选择项,构建基于广义极值(GEV)理论的交叉巢式Logit模型,为方便对比,同时构建3种结构的传统巢式模型.利用2005年北京市第3次居民出行调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验,并进行弹性分析,分析效用变量的改变引起的备选方案选择概率的改变.参数估计结果表明,交叉巢式Logit模型具有比NL(Nested logit)模型更优的统计学特征,当效用变量改变时,选择者最先变更其出发时间,然后是出行方式,最后才考虑改变其居住地.直接和交叉弹性分析表明,对于小汽车方式的远距离通勤者,即使额外收取费用亦难以降低其出行比例;当通勤距离小于5km时,一种方式出行时间的变化对另一种方式选择概率的影响微乎其微,而当通勤距离在10～20km时,这种影响最显著.     

村庄选址区位研究

择居是人类最重要的活动之一.通过不同时期人类定居区位的分析,村庄所处自然环境(土地、地形、水源等)和经济社会发展(工农业生产条件、交通可达性等)水平起着重要作用,且不同历史时期所起作用有着显著差异;自然环境的影响程度总体呈下降态势,近邻(较)发达区(沿海区、城镇)、交通便利区、环境优美域将是村庄选址的重要取向.