基于遗传算法的SVM-AR改进模型与应用

为提升河流流量的预测精度,将支持向量机与AR进行耦合,并构造三核混合核函数的流量预测支持向量机模型。以渭河流域的月径流量为例,首先,通过时间序列分析,将渭河流域的径流序列划分为趋势序列、季节序列和随机波动序列,然后利用AR模型构造适用于支持向量机算法的数据集,并将数据集按4∶1划分为训练集和检验集;其次,利用线性组合构造由多项式核函数、径向基核函数与Sigmoid核函数构成的三核混合核函数,在训练集上,采用遗传算法确定相关参数,随后在检验集上进行预测。结果表明:遗传算法确定参数会带来较大的不确定性,导致结果差异较大,从而着重讨论遗传算法带来的参数不确定性;通过函数构造与统计分析,给出三核混合核函数参数选择的一般性方法与流程,并进行验证,该参数选取方法能够降低遗传算法的不确定性,得到精度较高的流量预测结果,预测流量与实际流量的均方误差从150左右降低到130左右。     

广义模糊时间序列模型模糊区间划分研究

在模糊时间序列模型的构架中,介绍了广义模糊时间序列模型建立过程和常用的模糊区间划分方法,提出了基于均匀划分、模糊C均值聚类和自动聚类3种模糊区间划分方法的广义模糊时间序列模型,并用Alabama大学入学人数和沪市股指两组数据对模型进行了详细的分析.实验结果不仅揭示了这3种方法对模型预测结果的影响,还证明了广义模型优于传统模型.     

过渡金属和镧系金属卟啉配合物的合成与表征

合成了新型5, 10, 15, 20-四(对-(4-氟苯甲酰氧基苯基))过渡金属卟啉和新型镧系乙酰丙酮-5, 10, 15, 20-四(对-(4-氟苯甲酰氧基苯基))卟啉配合物,并用元素分析,紫外可见光谱,红外光声光谱,摩尔电导,核磁共振氢谱以及X-射线光电子能谱对其组成和结构进行了表征.     

高邮凹陷阜一段差异成岩作用及成因

高邮凹陷阜一段处于不同成岩阶段的储层出现了大致相同的成岩矿物的成岩现象,通过对目的层成岩阶段、成岩现象分析,结合构造、盆地流体等因素,提出差异成岩原理,认为当地层倾斜角度不大时,同一时代的地层往往处于相同的成岩阶段;早期成岩阶段的产物可能会在晚期成岩阶段中残留;当地层倾角较大时,同一时代的地层可能处于不同的成岩阶段,深部成岩流体的向上流动使浅部处于早期成岩阶段的储层具有晚期成岩现象.     

支持向量机在围岩变形监测中的应用

根据支特向量机优越的非线性拟合性能,建立变形量的时间序列预测模型,滚动预测围岩变形量,提高了预测模型的训练速度和预测推广能力。该方法用于西乡-固戍盾构段围岩变形预测,并与BP神经网络预测进行比较。结果表明这种模型可预测区间较长且具有较高的准确度,能够科学地指导现场施工和监测。     

Functional methods for time series prediction: a nonparametric approach

The problem of prediction in time series using nonparametric functional techniques is considered. An extension of the local linear method to regression with functional explanatory variable is proposed. This forecasting method is compared with the functional Nadaraya–Watson method and with finite‐dimensional nonparametric predictors for several real‐time series. Prediction intervals based on the bootstrap and conditional distribution estimation for those nonparametric methods are also compared. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A nonparametric method for asymmetrically extending signal extraction filters

Two important problems in the X‐11 seasonal adjustment methodology are the construction of standard errors and the handling of the boundaries. We adapt the ‘implied model approach’ of Kaiser and Maravall to achieve both objectives in a nonparametric fashion. The frequency response function of an X‐11 linear filter is used, together with the periodogram of the differenced data, to define spectral density estimates for signal and noise. These spectra are then used to define a matrix smoother, which in turn generates an estimate of the signal that is linear in the data. Estimates of the signal are provided at all time points in the sample, and the associated time‐varying signal extraction mean squared errors are a by‐product of the matrix smoother theory. After explaining our method, it is applied to popular nonparametric filters such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP), the Henderson trend, and ideal low‐pass and band‐pass filters, as well as X‐11 seasonal adjustment, trend, and irregular filters. Finally, we illustrate the method on several time series and provide comparisons with X‐12‐ARIMA seasonal adjustments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NEUMANN SERIES SOLUTION TO A NEUTRON TRANSPORT EQUATION OF SLAB GEOMETRY

This paper deals with the solution to an energy, dependent stationary neutrontransport equation of slab geometry. In L~p space, the equation is converted into an equiva-lent integral equation. By the study of the corresponding integral operator and its spectralradius, results of Neumann series solution are obtained, and an easy-verified condition thatthe transport equation has a nonnegative solution is given.     

酿酒用高产洛伐他汀红曲菌的筛选

为获得酿酒用高产洛伐他汀红曲菌株,研究以洛伐他汀含量、红曲色素色价、桔霉素含量及红曲菌产酶能力为评价指标,通过固态发酵法从不同产地40份红曲米中筛选出1株高产洛伐他汀的菌株H5-3,经形态观察和分子生物学鉴定,判定该菌株为紫色红曲菌。经过检测,菌株H5-3的洛伐他汀产量高达17.90mg/g,红色素色价3195.27μ/g,糖化酶、液化酶、酸性蛋白酶的活力分别达2514.26、0.32、300.19U/g,且该菌株不产桔霉素,是可应用于红曲黄酒酿造的功能红曲菌。进一步将该紫色红曲菌H5-3应用于红曲黄酒的酿造,制得的红曲黄酒中洛伐他汀质量浓度63.75mg/L,红色素色价22.86μ/mL,酒精度14.86%,总酸4.90g/L,氨基酸态氮0.83g/L。对制得的红曲黄酒风味物质进行分析,发现有机酸质量浓度为12.70g/L,其中乳酸、乙酸、琥珀酸、酒石酸、柠檬酸为其主要成分,分别占总量质量分数的28.2%、21.9%、14.5%、12.2%、5.7%;游离氨基酸质量浓度3540.58mg/L;在挥发性风味物质中,酯类、醇类为主要成分,分别占总量质量分数的48.4%、43.9%,其中乙酸乙酯、乳酸乙酯、丁二酸二乙酯、正丙醇、苯乙醇等含量较高,对风味有较大贡献;有机酸、游离氨基酸和挥发性风味物质含量比例协调。希望研究对传统红曲菌种资源的发掘利用以及红曲黄酒保健功能的提升具有参考价值。     

时空多特征流域场景模式库构建方法

通过构建流域时空场景表征水文事件,提出一种创新的时空多特征流域场景模式库构建方法。对水文原始数据进行事件化分割,去除场景要素数据的时空冗余;基于要素关联关系分析,以多类型方法构造场景要素的对应特征;通过特征选择算法,选取场景关键特征,实现场景初始化;以初始化场景为特征空间,通过聚类提取场景模式,完成场景模式库构建。试验结果表明,创新的时空多特征流域场景模式库构建方法能高效提取水文事件中关键的时空场景数据,挖掘场景模式,形成场景模式库,可以为小样本条件下的水文事件预测提供准确高效的结果。