Exact inference for two exponential populations with competing risks data

In a reliability comparative test, the joint censoring model is usually adopted to evaluate the performances of units with the same facility. However, most researchers ignore the pos- sibility that there is more than one factor for the failure when a test unit fails. To solve this problem, we consider a joint Type-II hybrid censoring model for the analysis of exponential competing failure data. Based on the maximum likelihood theory, we compute the maximum likelihood estimators （MLEs） of parameters and then obtain the condition ensuring MLEs existence for every unknown parameter. Then we derive the conditional exact distributions and corresponding moment properties for parameters by the moment generating function （MGF）. A Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to compare the performances of different ways. And finally, we conduct a numerical example to illustrate the proposed method.     

Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time‐varying) non‐central co‐moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the method of moments for a carefully selected set of co‐moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ‘negative tail’ of the joint distribution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

岩壁变形条件下结构面法向变形特征

开展了无周边约束条件下不同岩壁厚度结构面法向变形试验,结合结构面-岩壁系统刚度与系统厚度之间关系,得到了不同岩壁厚度条件下结构面-岩壁系统整体刚度的变化特征,以及岩体结构面刚度与结构面厚度.分析了不同周边约束条件下结构面刚度与闭合量之间的关系,提出了考虑岩壁变形条件下结构面法向变形本构模型及其适用条件.进一步讨论了岩壁-结构面系统的结构和材料特征,分析了结构面法向刚度合理试验方法的重要性.本研究将有利于加深对结构面法向变形特征的理解与认识.     

椭圆曲线密码的一种合适的对算法

在椭圆曲线密码的应用中,有些密码体制需要进行标量乘法对计算,通常在标量乘法计算时,任一整数对采用的是三元联合稀疏形式表示.在三元稀疏形式的基础上提出任一整数对的五元联合稀疏形式表示,并把这种形式用于快速Shamir算法计算标量乘法对,并证明五元联合稀疏形式比三元联合形式更有效.     

适于全断面岩石掘进机的围岩分类方法

为了研究影响全断面岩石掘进机(TBM)掘进速率的地质因素,利用三维离散元程序3DEC建立TBM滚刀破岩三维仿真模型,分析不同的地质条件对TBM掘进速率的影响,根据TBM在围岩中的可钻性对南水北调西线工程中的围岩进行分类。分析结果表明:TBM掘进速率与岩石物理力学性质及岩体中的节理条件密切相关,在一定范围内,围岩强度越低,节理分布越密集,TBM掘进速率越高;而围岩强度越高,节理间距越大,使得TBM掘进速率大大降低。     

Emission inventories of primary particles and pollutant gases for China

Detailed high-resolution emission inventories of primary particles(PM2.5,BC and OC) and pollutant gases(SO2,NOx,NH3,CO and VOCs) for China in 2007 were constructed on the basis of the latest fuel consumption data,mostly at the county level,and from socio-economic statistics and data on fossil and biomass fuels obtained from government agencies.New emission factors reflecting local features were also used.The calculated emissions were 13.212 Mt PM2.5,1.4 Mt BC,2.946 Mt OC,31.584 Mt SO2,23.248 Mt NOx,16.017 Mt NH3,164.856 Mt CO and 35.464 Mt VOCs.The national and regional emissions were gridded with 0.5°× 0.5° resolution for use in air quality models.Larger emissions were found in eastern and central China than in western China.The emissions estimated here are roughly equal to those obtained in previous studies,but with different contributions from because of seasonal changes in residential heating and biomass combustion.Finally,uncertainties in inventories were analyzed.     

分布式MIMO系统中载波频偏和信道的EM-PF联合估计

考虑了平衰落背景下分布式MIMO系统中载波频偏和信道的联合估计问题.与集中式MIMO的联合处理方法不同,改进了EM算法,提出了EM-PF算法解决这一强非线性难题.仿真结果表明:改进的算法更逼近克拉美罗界,在高性噪比条件下,误码率更低,有很大的实用价值.     

货架摆放量影响需求的库存管理

建立某些商品的需求与库存管理模型,从商品自身的销售弹性与替代品的销售弹性出发,设定摆放量充足时货架摆放量与需求量是指数函数关系;当摆放量小于一定量时,顾客的需求为一常数,并且允许顾客流失和延迟销售;在此基础上建立货架摆放量与需求量的模型.并通过解析解的情况,求出最优解.     

时变需求下的物流中心进货优化控制策略

研究了物流系统中物流中心存在冗余库存情况下,在分销系统时变需求下的物流中心进货量控制轨线·物流中心要求保持满意库存,以便能及时给零售商供货,提高顾客服务水平;同时,进货轨线比需求轨线延迟以节省库存管理费用·首先对物流系统进行了分析;其次利用最优控制理论,借助哈密顿函数和协态方程,得到在要求保持满意库存条件下的进货量控制策略,为物流中心进货量控制提供预测数据,为制定进货计划提供依据,以保证最大限度地满足满意库存量的要求·最后给出了算例分析,证明了进货量控制策略的有效性·     

不同客户服务水平下补货发货模型的选择

考虑到客户等待成本在某种程度上反映了客户所要求达到的服务水平,研究了不同需求区域内,当客户所要求的服务水平不同时,VMI环境下的两个典型的库存补充与发货模型.这两个模型分别采用了基于时间和基于数量的整合补货发货策略,分析了供应商如何根据客户服务水平制定相应的发货和库存补充策略,才能使客户满意度达到最大,同时其自身效益也获得最优,初步确定出了一个补货发货策略的选择方法,并应用MATLAB仿真软件进行了计算.