Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

复变函数论教学内容与教学方法的新探

随着高中数学教材内容的不断更新,高师院校复变函数论课程内容和教学方法的调整势在必行。本文在分析现状的前提下,就复变函数论课程内容和教学方法进行了一些有益的探索。     

Iterative Method for Constructing Complete Complementary Sequences with Lengths of 2^mN

Complete complementary sequences are widely used in spectrum spread communications because of their ideal correlation functions. A previous method generates complete complementary sequences with lengths of N^nN （n,N ∈ Z^＋）. This paper presents a new iterative method to construct complete complementary sequences with lengths of 2^mN （m,N ∈ Z^＋）. The analysis proves that this method can produce many sequence sets that do not appear in sequence sets generated by the former method, especially shorter sequence sets. The result will certainly increase the application of complete complementary sequences in communication engineering and related fields.     

开放式英语教学的应用探讨

开放式教学在大学英语中的应用能够发展学生的发散思维能力和培养学生的创新能力。该文从理论与实践的角度出发，结合具体的实例，探讨了开放式教学的几种实施方法。     

Banach空间积-微分方程整体解的存在性

利用上下解的单调迭代方法,采用适当的迭代程序,在较弱的条件下,获得了Banach空间积-微分方程初值问题整体解的存在性结果.     

浅谈中专英语的词汇教学

词汇教学在英语教学中至关重要.但传统的词汇教学存在许多问题.本文依据英语词汇学及词汇教学原则,探讨改进中专英语词汇教学的方法.     

如何应用测角方法提高测量精度

介绍了3种测角方法，对这3种测角方法进行了比较，提出了若干减小误差、提高测量精度的建议。     

用焓法有限元解相变问题的离散化方法

为了消除应用焓法进行含有相变的有限元传热计算结果呈台阶形的现象,本文作者提出“焓计算单元”和“固相分数”的概念,并将几种一维有限元实施方案的计算结果与精确解对比,说明采用所提出的概念,可以使有限元计算得出更为合理的结果。     

R.C.曲线交叉粱系双目标优化设计的研究

本文对R.C正交直线-曲线粱系进行双目标优化设计,取结构造价和钢筋用量两类指标构造目标函数,建立了此类结构的基于Pareto最优性准则的数学模型,并对“线性加权和算法”进行改进,由此求得的综合最优解与一般算法的解答基本重合,而迭代计算的工作量却显著减少。对数值计算结果进行分析、讨论,得出一些比单目标优化设计更有理论和实际意义的结论。     

迟后型时滞控制系统的稳定判断及稳定条件(下)

本文旨在把判断低阶时滞系统稳定性的“截点法”推广到高阶迟后型时滞系统的稳定性判断。文中具体分析了三阶时滞系统的稳定条件,并用计算机模拟证实了有关结论的正确性。此外,本文还提出了判断时滞系统不存在渐近稳定性质的基本理论及无渐近稳定的充分条件。