论带“五等”字号的虚封爵——晋宋之际国家官爵制度上的变化之一

晋宋之际，国家官爵制度上发生的重要变化之一就是带“五等”字号虚封爵的出现。晋末特殊军事政治形势之下，京口北府集团凭借强势军功击败高门士族，取得压倒性的军事政治优势，京口北府军功受益阶层由此形成。带“五等”字号虚封爵适时地出现则成为这个现实政治变化的典型表现之一。笔者从这种虚封爵产生的时间和目的进行详细分析，以为正是出于酬赏义熙初年京口北府集团建义之功，朝廷才创设了这种虚封爵。这种虚封爵突破既有的门阀制度优势，确立了以军功为核心的分享军事政治利益的价值导向。这使得京口北府集团凭借军功所获取的军事政治利益不仅在制度层面上得到保障，而且在价值层面上取得其正当性和合法性，也就在这个时候，京口北府军功利益阶层得以成立。酬赏军功的这一目的也直接决定了虚封爵的若干特点，对此，笔者也予以分析说明。     

库普河大桥T梁预制的质量控制和外观缺陷处理探讨

文章针对库普河大桥预制T梁的质量控制、外观缺陷处理，分析过程并提出处理方法和预防措施，以期达到使T梁的质量得到保证。     

随书光盘管理模式的探讨

介绍了随书光盘的分类及特点,结合广东工程职业技术学院图书馆的实际情况,探讨了随书光盘的管理模式.     

关于p-一致光滑Banach空间中非自映像的Reich公开问题

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生态旅游社区从事旅游业者的行为特征研究——以芦芽山自然保护区为例

生态旅游社区从事旅游业不仅是保护自然资源的坚强力量，而且是支持旅游业的主力军，他们是旅游影响的直接主要的承受，本采用问卷调查的方式，对芦芽山自然保护区从事旅游业的行为特征进行了调查，结果表明，社区人们对自然保护的支持率较高，但却认为可以私自利用其资源，他们对于旅游的各种影响反映良好。     

Unobserved components in ARCH models: An application to seasonal adjustment

The paper deals with unobserved components in ARIMA models with GARCH errors, in the context of an actual application, namely seasonal adjustment of the monthly Spanish money supply series. The series shows clear evidence of (moderate) non-linearity, which does not disappear with simple outlier correction. The GARCH structure explains reasonably well the non-linearity, and this explanation is robust with respect to the GARCH specification. We look at the time variation of the standard error of the adjusted series estimator and show how it can be measured. Next, we look at the implications this variation has on short-term monetary control. The non-linearity seems to have a small effect in practice. It is further seen that the conditional variance of the GARCH process may, in turn, be decomposed into components. In fact, the conditional variance of the money supply series is the sum of a weak linear trend, a strong non-linear seasonal component, and a moderate non-linear irregular component. This information has policy implications: for example, there are periods in the year when policy can be more assertive because information is more precise. Finally, looking at the non-linear components of the money supply it is seen how linear combinations of non-linear series can produce series that behave linearly.     

饱和消费者的经济均衡存在定理

研究当消费者处于饱和状态时经济均衡的存在性问题,利用角谷不动点定理,给出了一个均衡存在性定理.     

Does a lot help a lot? Forecasting stock returns with pooling strategies in a data‐rich environment

A variety of recent studies provide a skeptical view on the predictability of stock returns. Empirical evidence shows that most prediction models suffer from a loss of information, model uncertainty, and structural instability by relying on low‐dimensional information sets. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of various lately refined forecasting strategies, which handle these issues by incorporating information from many potential predictor variables simultaneously. We investigate whether forecasting strategies that (i) combine information and (ii) combine individual forecasts are useful to predict US stock returns, that is, the market excess return, size, value, and the momentum premium. Our results show that methods combining information have remarkable in‐sample predictive ability. However, the out‐of‐sample performance suffers from highly volatile forecast errors. Forecast combinations face a better bias–efficiency trade‐off, yielding a consistently superior forecast performance for the market excess return and the size premium even after the 1970s.     

Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality‐forecasting models be associated with real‐world trends in health‐related variables? Does inclusion of health‐related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle‐related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

残差修正步进模型在社保卡数字照片处理中的应用

针对社保卡安全性问题,提出了将残差修正步进模型(GSMEM)运用于社保卡数字照片处理.为了适应社保卡应用的要求,压缩数字照片既要减少其占用的内存,又要保证算法具备较快的运算速度,以提高社保卡图像边缘的视觉效果.实验结果表明,该方法具有较高的实用性.