基于模糊神经网络和证据理论的瓦斯突出评判策略

针对影响煤矿瓦斯突出因素的不确定性和复杂的非线性关系,不能够利用经典的数学理论建立精确的预测模型,将模糊神经网络和D-S证据理论有机结合,提出了基于模糊神经网络和D-S证据理论的煤矿瓦斯突出危险等级评判策略.首先对传感器采集的待评判采掘面参数进行预处理,使用模糊神经网络得出第一步的融合结果,并将其进行归一化处理,归一化函数作为基本概率赋值函数,然后将归一化之后的数值作为基本概率分配值,再用D-S证据理论进行第二次数据融合,作出最终评判.实验结果表明,该方法具有良好的适应性并能得到准确性较高的评判结果.     

Standards of evidence and causality in regulatory science: Risk and benefit assessment

In this paper we analyze the Russo-Williamson Thesis (RWT) as a standard of evidence in regulatory science, in risk as well as benefit assessment. In our analysis we take account of the recent controversies that have taken place in regulation with respect to the evidentiary requirements necessary for regulatory decision making. RWT's main point is that not only probabilistic but also mechanistic evidence is necessary for being able to infer the existence of causal links. We ask in which way RWT could have an impact upon current decision making about subjecting to regulation (or, to the contrary, leaving them unregulated) certain chemical substances, food stuffs, health claims, and other typical objects of regulation. We show that the application of RWT resolves some of the problems posed by current standards of evidence. RWT makes it possible to determine with higher accuracy if a particular substance should be subjected to regulation or not, even though under certain circumstances RWT itself may turn into a source of regulatory error. The adequacy of RWT as a standard of evidence depends on the precise manner of its application to regulation (particularly the consideration of mechanistic evidence as a complementary or necessary requirement), as well as the assessment of its non-epistemic consequences.     

论涉油非法产业链的几个问题

涉油非法产业链成因隐蔽,发展势头猛、危害性大,冲击我国的石油安全形势,对其内涵、本质和发展态势需要加以研究,尤其需要创新视角,增强预见性.     

金融侵权行为认定及惩处探讨

金融侵权行为是一种特殊的行业性侵权行为，必须依法认定金融机构的储蓄侵权行为、借贷侵权行为、贷款欺诈行为、证券欺诈行为、票据欺诈行为等。公民、法人因多事侵权行为而遭受损害的，有权依法索赔。金融机构及其工作人员的侵权行为触犯法律规定的，还必须依法追究单位和个人的行政责任或刑事责任。     

如何为民间金融健康发展保驾护航——完善我国民间金融法律制度的思考

我国经济飞速发展的当下，如何完善法律这把利器来保障民间金融的健康发展不得不成为我们思考的对象。文章试从民间金融的基本理论入手，分析民间金融的基本内涵与法律特点，明确民间金融立法原则，从而结合我国的立法现状，分析相关立法存在的问题，进而对症下药，提出完善措施。     

浅谈行政程序违法案件的审判理念和思路

随着行政机关依法行政意识的增强，行政机关在作出具体行政行为过程中，在遵从实体法上已大为进步，但对程序合法的认识仍凸显不足，程序操作上的不规范引起了行政相对人的不满，并由此滋生了大量行政纠纷。在分析实务中程序违法行政诉讼案件的基础上，探讨和归纳该类案件的基本审判理念和思路，针对适用不同的判决结果，确定无效、可撤销、确认违法、责令履行法定职责四种责任形式在审判实践中的具体运用情形。     

论民事诉讼中的自认制度

我国现行民事诉讼法没有对自认制度进行明确、详细的规定，然而《最高人民法院关于民事诉讼证据的若干规定》中明确承认当事人在诉讼中自认的证明效力，标志着我国自认制度的一大进步，我国证据制度逐步得到了完善。     

从几类案件的败诉看企业档案的重要性

文章通过对企业几类案件的败诉原因分析,从诉讼证据的角度,阐述企业档案的重要性。     

What is mechanistic evidence,and why do we need it for evidence-based policy?

It has recently been argued that successful evidence-based policy should rely on two kinds of evidence: statistical and mechanistic. The former is held to be evidence that a policy brings about the desired outcome, and the latter concerns how it does so. Although agreeing with the spirit of this proposal, we argue that the underlying conception of mechanistic evidence as evidence that is different in kind from correlational, difference-making or statistical evidence, does not correctly capture the role that information about mechanisms should play in evidence-based policy. We offer an alternative account of mechanistic evidence as information concerning the causal pathway connecting the policy intervention to its outcome. Not only can this be analyzed as evidence of difference-making, it is also to be found at any level and is obtainable by a broad range of methods, both experimental and observational. Using behavioral policy as an illustration, we draw the implications of this revised understanding of mechanistic evidence for debates concerning policy extrapolation, evidence hierarchies, and evidence integration.     

基于云模型和证据理论的装备管理绩效评价

针对部队装备管理绩效影响因素复杂,评价过程具有模糊性、不确定性等特点,提出了基于云模型和改进证据理论的装备管理绩效评价方法。首先,构建了装备管理绩效评价指标体系,采用组合赋权法确定指标权重;然后,借助云模型对评语信息进行建模,构造基本概率分配函数,再引入Jousselme距离,通过计算证据可信度和可靠度得到证据的复合权重,以此作为权重系数对证据源进行修正;最后,采用改进的证据融合规则进行各指标基本概率分配融合,得到综合评价结果。通过实例分析验证了指标体系的科学性和算法的有效性,为部队装备管理绩效评价提供了参考。