马克思主义文艺学方法论探析

“美学和历史的观点”作为马克思主义文艺美学方法论的总原则 ,经过一百五十多年文艺学批评实践的检验 ,被证明不仅具有很强的实践性 ,而且还具有强大生命力。     

Storying Systems: Managing Everyday Flux Using Mode 2 Soft Systems Methodology

This paper examines work with managers who used a narrative approach to systemic thinking. Storytelling is incorporated within Mode 2 SSM involving a flexible approach to the analysis of complex or "messy" situations at work. Mode 2 SSM is presented as a thinking mode by those within the problem situation, involving the use of various devices of rich pictures, relevant systems, and root definitions, whereby managers and others may make sense of their experiences from within the flux of everyday life. The focus of the approach is learning through reflection on events and activities to consider potential actions and improvements in difficult situations. The findings show the initial difficulty and disappointment of learning to deal with complexity and the unexpected but how quickly the "gain outweighs the pain," as managers learned to attune themselves to the flux of situations, to identify how to work with flows and energies more creatively, and to become conscious of what was happening on the edge of awareness.     

A Systemic Action Learning Cycle as the Key Element of an Ongoing Spiral of Analyses

The Systems movement in the United Kingdom, in addressing the task of enquiry, has created a surfeit of methodologies. Each, like some closely guarded religious sect, demands adherence to its own presentational rules and procedures, its own epistemological and ontological position. Much of the secondary literature of the U.K. Systems movement focuses on examining the strengths and weaknesses of these separate approaches, devises complex decision rules for when to use which methodology, and attempts to map particular methodologies onto "appropriate" scenarios. This paper attempts to present a generalized form of the cyclic activity of investigation and action which is encompassed by many of the methodologies. It is shown that this does not require the presentation of a "lowest common denominator" activity set, which is of no value, but rather draws on the underlying power of the approaches to present a robust and defensible cycle of activities which are continuously reenacted over time. The implications of this spiral model of Action Learning are examined, both in relation to the development of existing methodologies and in relation to the issues related to managing a complex analysis project. The paper concludes by showing how individual analysis cycles merge into a never-ending learning spiral in a complex, dynamic, real-world environment.     

Short-term forecasting of industrial production by means of quick indicators

This paper reports results on building transfer function models with linear combinations of quick indicators as inputs for very short-term prediction of the monthly time series of the volume of industrial production in Finland. The number of input variables in the transfer function models is reduced in two alternative ways: by replacing the original indicators by their two first principal components and by omitting certain indicators. The prediction accuracy of the transfer function models is checked outside the sample and found superior to that of corresponding ARIMA models. Neither of the two ways of reducing the number of input variables leads to consistently more accurate forecasts than the other. It is also found that the prediction accuracy of the transfer function models compares rather favourably with the preliminary values of the volume of industrial production published by the Central Statistical Office during the periods of rapid growth.     

Complexity and change: Reflections upon the cybernetic intervention in Chile, 1970–1973

Social change depends on communications. The more effective the communication mechanisms between the participants in a situation are, the more likely it is that they will contribute, to the best of their abilities, to the discovery and production of desirable change. Hence the relevance of studying, and improving, the cybernetics of problem situations. Effectiveness in this case is defined by the degree to which the complexity of the situation is matched by the complexity of the regulatory mechanisms in use. However, if this proposition is going to be useful, it is necessary to have approaches to work out the matching. This paper discusses a cybernetic methodology, relying on Beer's Viable System Model, which enables a deeper understanding of, and capacity to deal with, situational and regulatory complexities. Finally, these ideas are used to reflect upon the cybernetic intervention in the Chile of the early 1970's.     

空问映射与响应面法相结合的改进优化算法

在空间映射与响应面法相结合的基础上修改了序列响应面的程序流程，从而改变了应用响应面方法优化时的迭代本质。改进方法无须每次迭代重新拟合低保真模型响应面，只在第一次迭代拟合响应面，在此基础上调整高低保真模型设计变量间的映射关系，优化收敛更迅速。由于避免了反复的试验设计和模型分析，改进方法的计算效率远高于原方法。数值算例表明了该方法的稳定性，此方法可以大大减少应用序列响应面进行优化或可靠性评价的计算量。     

Establish a creative environment for roadmapping in academy—From the perspective of <Emphasis Type="Italic">i</Emphasis>-system methodology

Roadmapping, originated from industry as a strategic planning tool, is attracting increasing applications in academy. Based on the recognition that roadmapping is a knowledge creation process, this paper analyzes what kind of support is needed or helpful for establishing a creative environment for roadmapping in academy and reviews various types of such support from the perspective of i-system methodology. As case studies of such support, this paper further introduces roadmapping pratices in Janpan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology.     

"三位一体"目标下的数学思想方法教学意识培养

新一轮基础教育数学课程改革，把在数学教学中培养学生的数学思想方法提高到十分显著的地位．笔者从基础教育数学课程“三位一体”的目标出发，探讨数学思想方法教学的意义．进而探索培养高师学生数学思想方法教学意识的方法与途径.