浅析水文基本建设前期计划管理

介绍了水文水资源工程建设程序,阐述了水文基本建设前期各项工作的具体要求,探讨了需要注意的问题。     

Unit roots versus other types of time heterogeneity,parameter time dependence and superexogeneity

This paper stresses the restrictive nature of the standard unit root/cointegration assumptions and examines a more general type of time heterogeneity, which might characterize a number of economic variables, and which results in parameter time dependence and misleading statistical inference. We show that in such cases ‘operational’ models cannot be obtained, and the estimation of time‐varying parameter models becomes necessary. For instance, economic processes subject to endemic change can only be adequately modelled in a state space form. This is a very important point, because unstable models will break down when used for forecasting purposes. We also discuss a new test for the null of cointegration developed by Quintos and Phillips (1993), which is based on parameter constancy in cointegrating regressions. Finally, we point out that, if it is possible to condition on a subset of superexogenous variables, parameter instability can be handled by estimating a restricted system. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

R.C.曲线交叉粱系双目标优化设计的研究

本文对R.C正交直线-曲线粱系进行双目标优化设计,取结构造价和钢筋用量两类指标构造目标函数,建立了此类结构的基于Pareto最优性准则的数学模型,并对“线性加权和算法”进行改进,由此求得的综合最优解与一般算法的解答基本重合,而迭代计算的工作量却显著减少。对数值计算结果进行分析、讨论,得出一些比单目标优化设计更有理论和实际意义的结论。     

Quantitative genetic models of sexual selection

Summary Quantitative genetic models of sexual selection have disporven some of the central tenets of both the handicap mechanism and the sexy son hypothesis. These results suggest that the good genes approach to sexual selection may generally lead to erroneous results.Runaway sexual selection seems possible under a wide variety of circumstances. Quantittive genetic models have revealed runaway processes for sexually selected attributes expressed in both sexes and for attributes of parental care. Furthermore, the runaway could occur simultaneously in a series of populations that straddle an environmental gradient. While the models support the feasibility of runaway processes, empirical studies are needed to evaluate whether runaways actually happen. Estimates of critical genetic parameters are particularly needed, as well as measures of natural and sexual selection acting on the same population.The models also show that sexual selection has tremendous potential to produce population differentiation, particularly in epigamic traits. Differentiation is promoted by indeterminancy of evolutionary outcome, transient differences among populations during the final slow approach to equilibrium, sampling drift among equilibrium populations, and the tendency of sexual selection to amplify geographic variation arising from spatial differences in natural selection. Recent work with two- and three-locus models of sexual selection has produced results that parallel the results of the polygenic models^36–38,58. Thus the feature of indeterminate equilibria (outcome dependent on initial conditions) is common to both types of model.     

太湖流域超标特大洪水风险预警系统建设及应用

为做好超标洪水调度、保障流域防洪安全,开发建设了由基于水文水动力学耦合的超警超保风险区域预警模型与基于水文学法的洪水淹涝风险快速评估模型共同组成的超标特大洪水风险预警系统,该系统在太湖流域预报调度一体化系统中通过智能交互方式进行模型与系统的紧密集成,实现了预报调度成果的可视化。基于水利一张图的超警超保与淹涝动态展示,实现了预报产品从点到面、从常规预报到影响预测的突破,以及洪水风险由静态评估向实时快速动态分析的转变。应用结果表明：系统在2020年太湖流域性大洪水中累计发布超警超保风险提示39期、洪水淹涝风险评估4期,预测结果与实际基本一致,为科学调度防御超标洪水提供了技术支撑,避免了江苏省苏州市3万多的人员转移,有力保障了太湖流域防洪安全。     

土坯力学性能及受压本构模型研究

为获取传统土坯受压应力-应变特性,确定其数学表达式,针对湿制法和干打法制作的土坯开展了单轴抗压试验和三点抗折试验。分别从抗压、抗折强度、破坏机理以及应力-应变关系等方面分析了两类土坯的力学性能。结果表明,普通砌墙砖的抗压及抗折试验方法均适用于传统土坯,干打土坯的抗压强度为湿制土坯的3倍,抗折强度为湿制土坯的1.3倍,但湿制土坯的断裂能为干打土坯的2.5倍。受压初期,干打土坯的应力-应变曲线存在因土料压密而导致的下凹段,而湿制土坯未表现出该特性。基于两类土坯单轴受压状态下的应力-应变曲线特征,提出了土坯单轴受压本构模型,该本构模型与试验数据吻合较好,可用于土坯砌体结构的数值模拟研究。     

A user designer-based systems methodology

This paper develops the argument that in organizational redesign it is desirable to utilize user-designers as the architects for the redesign. A methodology is developed which emphasizes the use of ideal systems models by user-designers to plan for the organization's future. The methodology involves the creation of an ideal system model, then an analysis of the present system through the creation of root definitions and process models of the existing system. Then root definitions and process models for the idealized system are created. Finally, the two are compared and desirable changes are generated which bring the existing system toward the idealized.     

集成化企业网络需求分析信息量化模型

集成化企业网络需求分析信息量化模型冯径沈苏彬顾冠群（东南大学计算机科学与工程系,南京２１００９６）集成化企业网络是ＣＩＭＳ网络的典型网络,包括设计制造、控制和管理等各方面的网络集成［１,２］．网络需求分析是网络设计的第一步［３］,它不仅是整个网络设...     

泰勒级数在电力系统暂态稳定性分析中的应用

为改进传统单机等效法在电力系统稳定分析中的精度,提出了用泰勒级数表示单机等效模型的方法。通过在３９节点１０发电机计算电网上的计算结果比较,说明该方法同时兼顾了在线算法的快速性和精确性双重要求,因而具有在线应用于电力系统安全运行管理系统中的潜在优势。     

水文自动测报系统的体系结构研究

研究了水文自动测报系统的层次和借分和网络互连。在此基础上,仿照“物理构成”和“逻辑构成”分开的原则,建立了多媒体通信网络的水文自动测报系统的“逻辑构成”体系结构。即多媒体通信网络化的水文自动测报系统的体系结构参考模式,简称ＨＤＡＳ－ＲＭ。