Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

在胎儿发育过程中人MK基因的组织差异性表达

MK是肝素结合因子家族中的一个成员，用RT－PCR研究了第11－16周胎儿龄的胎儿的神经组织与非神经组织中MK基因的组织差异性表达，随着胎儿龄的增加，在神经组织中，MK呈现出规律性的从无互有和从低表达到高表达的趋势，提示它可能在胎儿脑的发育中起着重要的作用，在其他非神经组织中，尽管各组织中MK的表达呈现不同的规律，但看起来总的趋势是趋向活跃。     

工作分析是人力资源管理的基础

针对现代企业人力资源管理的特点，阐述了人本管理的核心理念、工作分析的目的和作用，提出了把握工作分析的六大要点。     

运动员人力资本的不确定性与足球职业俱乐部治理特征

人力资本是分析职业足球俱乐部的治理结构的起点,人力资本的各种特征所内含的不确定性将在足球俱乐部治理和俱乐部的持续发展中起核心作用.通过分析运动员的人力资本特征,主要包括:运动员是其人力资本的“自然”所有者和承担者,具有不可分性,走运动员的主动资产;运动员人力资本具有不完全替代性,并通过团队活动获得不同程度的垄断权力,有获取报酬递增的趋势;以及运动员人力资本的不确定性.俱乐部最重要的资产是运动员的人力资本资产,因此,俱乐部必须充分考虑运动员行为的不确定性,其治理结构必须符合人力资本的特征,激励合约必须面向未来.     

实施素质教育中的高校图书馆

21世纪的素质教育使高校图书馆成为整个人才教育体系的重要组成部分。应充分发挥高雅的图书馆环境、丰富的高品质馆藏、现代化的各种设施等优势，搞好学生素质教育，并主动适应从应试教育向素质教育的转变。     

老龄产业发展战略的思考

论述新世纪发展老龄产业的意义、作用、制约因素和内容．目的在于通过老龄产业的发展来解决日趋严重的人口老龄化问题；并运用实证分析法阐明经济发展、计划生育、社会安定与人类进步的关系。     

论激励机制在国有企业中的运用

介绍了激励管理的内涵,并就国有企业如何建立和运用高效的激励机制,调动员工的积极性,提高企业的劳动生产率,增加企业的经济效益进行了分析探讨。     

甲烷与水分子氢键相互作用的理论研究

使用Gaussioan94程序包，在B3LYP／6—311G**基组水平上，对甲烷(CH4)与水分子(H2O)之间的所有相互作用方式进行优化．通过电子布居分析，发现在电子给予体O原子和电子接受体H原子间存在氢键，氢键的键长约为0．2574nm．振动模式分析表明，只有一种加合物是稳定的，势能面也证实了这一点．     

ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ECONOMY GROWTH WITH THE THEORY OF DIFFERENTIAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS

In order to describe the interrelation forces among different regions during the economic growth, this paper introduces and analyzes the dynamical system model with the theory of differential systems dynamics. A practical example based on a simplified model is given to analyze the dynamical process of Sichuan economy growth.     

Frequent mtDNA mutations and its role in gastric carcinogenesis

In order to disclose the relationship between mutations of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and gastric carcinogenesis, we screened the entire mtDNA sequence in 30 cases of human gastric cancer and matched normal tissues by using denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC) and DNA sequencing. Our data showed that high frequency (66.7%, 20/30) of mitochondrial genome mutation occurred in gastric cancer. Among these variants, 17 cases (56.7%, 17/30) were identified to be somatic mutation. High level mutant frequency was found in ND4, ND5 coding genes and D-loop control region, which was 36.7%, 26.7% and 30% respectively. Comparing with complexes Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅴof the electron transport chain, we found that variants appeared to be more frequent in the subunit genes of complexⅠ. Most of mutations were base substitutions (85.4%, 41/48). Our results suggested that mutations of subunit genes encoding complexⅠ, especially ND3, ND4 and ND5 genes, might contribute to human gastric carcinogenesis.