灰色理论在城市地价预测中的应用——以厦门市为例

利用厦门市城市地价动态监测资料,构建城市地价水平预测分析的GM（1,1）模型。经模型精度检验表明,该模型对厦门市地价指数的历史变化趋势的拟合程度高,能较真实的反应厦门市城市地价水平和动态变化趋势。     

水价持续上涨对京城居民心理承受力的影响

北京市居民用自来水价格在 1990～ 2 0 0 4年的 14年内上调了 9次 ,从 0 12元 /m3上涨到 3 7元 /m3,居民水费年支出增长率为 35 % .长期习惯于低水价的京城居民面对持续上涨的自来水价格 ,其经济上和心理上的承受能力又如何 ?本文基于大量的统计数据 ,通过分析心理承受能力的影响因素后表明 :目前水价尚在人们可承受的心理范围之内 ,但随着水价的继续上涨 ,低收入群体所承受的心理压力会明显高于高收入群体 ,心理承受能力也将随之降低 .     

基于非平稳面板计量方法的房地产价格非理性繁荣检验

利用中国30个大中城市1998~2009年季度面板数据,采用非平稳面板计量方法对房价与房租之间的长期均衡关系和Granger因果关系进行分析.结果表明：各大中城市的房价与租金之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并且这种长期均衡关系在各城市间存在较大的差异;短期而言,各大中城市的房价与租金之间不存在Granger因果关系,长期来看,房价是租金的Granger原因,但租金不是房价的Granger原因,表明房价已脱离租金所确定的基本面,中国房地产市场存在非理性的繁荣.     

乡村民居被动式太阳能设计与热环境分析

宁夏地区乡村民居存在的主要问题是冬季室内温度低、舒适性差、采暖能耗高、太阳能等可再生资源缺乏有效利用.针对问题,通过问卷与入户调研掌握民居现存缺陷,立足太阳能富集特点,利用现代建筑技术,提出适合地方特点的太阳能被动利用设计方案,并在碱富桥村生态民居设计中进行了实践探索.通过比较分析,证明了太阳能被动利用技术在西北地区乡村民居中可以提高冬季室内温度,减少煤炭消耗,在经济与技术上具有可行性.     

Financial volatility modeling: The feedback asymmetric conditional autoregressive range model

An implied assumption in the asymmetric conditional autoregressive range (ACARR) model is that upward range is independent of downward range. This paper scrutinizes this assumption on a broad variety of stock indices. Instead of independence, we find significant cross‐interdependence between the upward range and the downward range. Regression test shows that the cross‐interdependence cannot be explained by leverage effect. To include the cross‐interdependence, a feedback asymmetric conditional autoregressive range (FACARR) model is proposed. Empirical studies are performed on a variety of stock indices, and the results show that the FACARR model outperforms the ACARR model with high significance for both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasting.     

Modeling eBay price using stochastic differential equations

Online auctions have become increasingly popular in recent years. There is a growing body of research on this topic, whereas modeling online auction price curves constitutes one of the most interesting problems. Most research treats price curves as deterministic functions, which ignores the random effects of external and internal factors. To account for the randomness, a more realistic model using stochastic differential equations is proposed in this paper. The online auction price is modeled by a stochastic differential equation in which the deterministic part is equivalent to the second‐order differential equation model proposed in Wang et al. (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2008, 103, 1100–1118). The model also includes a component representing the measurement errors. Explicit expressions for the likelihood function are also obtained, from which statistical inference can be conducted. Forecast accuracy of the proposed model is compared with the ODE (ordinary differential equation) approach. Simulation results show that the proposed model performs better.     

Optimal pricing and inventory policy with order cancelations under the cash-on-delivery payment scheme

Considering a periodic review system where the online seller allows the customers to pay when the products are delivered to them（referred as cash-on-delivery payment scheme in this paper）,the authors investigate the seller＇s joint pricing and inventory control policy with a finite planning horizon.In particular,the authors incorporate the customers＇ possible order cancellation behavior with the cash-on-delivery scheme.It can be proven that the base-stock list price policy is optimal under mild conditions.The authors also analyze the impact of the customers＇ forward looking behavior on the optimal policy.     

《古宅传奇》中的梦幻探寻

作者选择了一个新的视角(即作品中的梦幻感)来研究霍桑的《古宅传奇》,指出了这部作品的梦幻的特点是其魅力所在,揭示了其中的各项梦幻特征以及形成的原因,从而探讨了霍桑的写作风格和艺术手法。     

我国农业用水水价分析

分析目前我国农业用水水价的现状，农民对水费的承受能力，农业用水价格调整的可能性，农业水费征收、管理和使用状况以及存在的一些问题。分析结果认为：准确核定供水成本，合理确定用水水价，改善用水计量设施，实施合同供水，建立农民用水者协会等民主管理制度是农业水价改革的重点。     

清单计价模式下如何编写施工组织设计

随着我国建设市场的快速发展，招标投标制度逐步完善，承包者要取得施工任务，就必须在建筑市场上参与竞争。承包企业要在竞争中取胜，就必须进行充分筹划，确定对策，并满足招标方标书中有关组织方面的要求，编制出合理的施工组织设计。