基于集成学习的P2P流量识别模型

将DTNB、OneR和BP神经网络算法集成用于P2P流量识别,构建了基于该集成学习算法的P2P流量识别模型。利用网络流量特征和机器学习中生成规则的集成分类算法将网络流量分为P2P流量和非P2P流量。所建立的P2P流量识别模型分为网络流量特征的获取、P2P流量特征选取以及建立流量分类模型三个步骤。采用十折交叉验证与测试集相结合的方法CTFCVWTS(combining T-fold cross validation with testing set)评估模型的合理性和提出方法的有效性。实验得出流量分类准确率平均为97.27%。结果表明,该模型具有较高的P2P流量识别准确率。     

一种神经网络集成分类器在暂态稳定评估中的应用

针对神经网络应用于电力系统暂态稳定评估存在的误分类问题，将粗糙集理论和神经网络相结合，运用特征矩阵进行属性约简的基础上，应用装袋策略构造集成神经网络分类器来提高分类准确率，在新英格兰10机39节点系统中的应用验证了该分类器的分类准确率较普通神经网络分类器有较大的提高、     

基于代价敏感SVM优化组合算法的微钙化簇识别

微钙化簇是乳腺癌一个重要的早期发现,现有的检测技术为了达到高敏感性要求,产生很多假阳性数据.根据微钙化簇特点,提出一种整体和局部相组合的分类识别策略,并根据真假阳性样本错分代价的不同,使用代价敏感SVM方法进行分类学习.在构造分类器模型过程中利用粒子群进行分类器的参数优化及特征集合的选择,以提升分类学习的泛化能力.该算法在保证高敏感性的同时,降低了过多的假阳性数据,并删除了冗余和不相关的特征.实验结果表明,基于粒子群优化的代价敏感SVM组合分类算法提高了传统方法的识别能力.     

基于EnKF的油藏自动历史拟合方法对三相相对渗透率的反演

为解决标准集合Kalman滤波在非线性油藏反演中更新模型与更新动态场的统计不一致性问题,提出了一种改进的集合Kalman滤波方法,历史拟合过程中只对模型参数进行更新,然后利用更新的模型参数从初始状态重新运行油藏数值模拟软件进行下一拟合时刻的生产预测,协方差矩阵由从时间零运行油藏数值模拟软件得到的预测数据进行计算.理论证明了该方法与集合随机最大似然法的一致性.对某油藏的相对渗透率曲线进行了估计,比较了标准集合Kalman滤波方法与改进方法的参数估计及生产预测结果.由于保证了更新模型与更新动态场的一致性,改进的集合Kalman滤波方法得到了更好的参数估计和生产预测结果.     

基于EEMD能量熵和支持向量机的齿轮故障诊断方法

针对齿轮振动信号的非平稳特征和现实中难以获得大量典型故障样本的实际情况,提出基于总体平均经验模态分解(EEMD)和支持向量机的齿轮故障诊断方法.通过EEMD方法将非平稳的原始加速度振动信号分解成若干个平稳的本征模函数(IMF);齿轮发生不同的故障时,在不同频带内的信号能量值会发生改变,故可通过计算不同振动信号的EEMD能量熵判断是否发生故障;从包含有主要故障信息的IMF分量中提取出来的能量特征作为输入建立支持向量机,判断齿轮的工作状态和故障类型.实验结果表明:文中提出的方法能有效地应用于齿轮的故障诊断.     

基于EEMD和小波包变换的早期故障敏感特征获取

提出一种基于总体平均经验模态分解和小波包变换的方法,进行早期故障敏感特征的获取,构建早期故障诊断模型. 该方法首先应用EEMD对现场采集的振动信号进行分解,分离出不同频率成分的特征信号,选择与原信号相关系数最大的 IMF分量进行信息重构;面向重构的IMF分量采用WPT进行分解,得到各个节点的小波系数;最后使用Hilbert变换提取小波包系数的包络,计算功率谱,准确获得早期故障的敏感特征. 通过对仿真信号的分析验证了该方法对故障诊断的有效性. 将该方法应用于实测的滚动轴承的内圈、外圈和滚动体故障诊断,诊断结果均表明该方法可有效提取早期故障敏感特征,故障诊断快速准确.      

Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements

Projections of future climate change cannot rely on a single model. It has become common to rely on multiple simulations generated by Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs), especially to quantify the uncertainty about what would constitute an adequate model structure. But, as Parker points out (2018), one of the remaining philosophically interesting questions is: “How can ensemble studies be designed so that they probe uncertainty in desired ways?” This paper offers two interpretations of what General Circulation Models (GCMs) are and how MMEs made of GCMs should be designed. In the first interpretation, models are combinations of modules and parameterisations; an MME is obtained by “plugging and playing” with interchangeable modules and parameterisations. In the second interpretation, models are aggregations of expert judgements that result from a history of epistemic decisions made by scientists about the choice of representations; an MME is a sampling of expert judgements from modelling teams. We argue that, while the two interpretations involve distinct domains from philosophy of science and social epistemology, they both could be used in a complementary manner in order to explore ways of designing better MMEs.     

基于主成份分析的Bagging集成学习方法

机器学习中数据集的冗余特征会影响学习器的泛化能力,一些流行方法如支持向量机和集成学习也难免于此．研究了利用主成份分析进行特征变换对Bagging集成学习算法的影响,提出一种称为PCA—Bagging的算法,并与其它算法比如单个支持向量机、支持向量机Bagging集成、带有特征变换的单个支持向量机等进行了性能比较．在多个UCI标准数据集上的实验表明PCA—Bagging算法具有更好的性能,这说明即使是泛化能力很强的集成学习方法其学习的数据也需要进行适当的特征变换。     

Exploring non-equilibrium statistical ensembles

Since Gibbs synthesized a general equilibrium statistical ensemble theory, generalizing the Gibbsian theory to non-equilibrium phenomena has been a dream for some theorists. However, the status of the theory for the non-equilibrium ensemble formalism is not as well established as the Gibbsian ensemble theory. In this work, we explore the formalism behind the non-equilibrium statistical ensemble theory based on the sub-dynamic kinetic equation originating from the Brussels-Austin school and develop...     

An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Paradigm for Nonstationary and Nonlinear Energy Price Time Series Forecasting

For forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear energy prices time series, a novel adaptive multiscale ensemble learning paradigm incorporating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least square support vector machines (LSSVM) with kernel function prototype is developed. Firstly, the extrema symmetry expansion EEMD, which can effectively restrain the mode mixing and end effects, is used to decompose the energy price into simple modes. Secondly, by using the fine‐to‐coarse reconstruction algorithm, the high‐frequency, low‐frequency and trend components are identified. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average is applicable to predicting the high‐frequency components. LSSVM is suitable for forecasting the low‐frequency and trend components. At the same time, a universal kernel function prototype is introduced for making up the drawbacks of single kernel function, which can adaptively select the optimal kernel function type and model parameters according to the specific data using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of all the components are aggregated into the forecasting values of energy price time series. The empirical results show that, compared with the popular prediction methods, the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of energy prices, with high accuracy both in the level and directional predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.