Heterogeneous Forecast Adjustment

There is ample empirical evidence that expert‐adjusted model forecasts can be improved. One way to potential improvement concerns providing various forms of feedback to the sales forecasters. It is also often recognized that the experts (forecasters) might not constitute a homogeneous group. This paper provides a data‐based methodology to discern latent clusters of forecasters, and applies it to a fully new large database with data on expert‐adjusted forecasts, model forecasts and realizations. For the data at hand, two clusters can clearly be identified. Next, the consequences of having clusters are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic Latent Class Model Averaging for Online Prediction

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called dynamic latent class model averaging, which combines a state‐space model for the parameters of each of the candidate models of the system with a Markov chain model for the best model. We propose a polychotomous regression model for the transition weights to assume that the probability of a change in time depends on the past through the values of the most recent time periods and spatial correlation among the regions. The evolution of the parameters in each submodel is defined by exponential forgetting. This structure allows the ‘correct’ model to vary over both time and regions. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed model naturally incorporates clustering and prediction analysis in a single unified framework. We develop an efficient Gibbs algorithm for computation, and we demonstrate the value of our framework on simulated experiments and on a real‐world problem: forecasting IBM's corporate revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于变异系数权重的灰色关联投影法在安全绩效评价中的应用

在提出施工企业安全绩效评价指标体系的基础上,运用灰色关联投影法对企业安全绩效进行评价。为避免指标的相对重要程度因人为赋权的主观性影响和指标权重分配的均衡化以及指标之间因量纲不同而对权重的影响,采取了变异系数法来对各指标确定权重。之后针对实地考察的施工企业进行实证分析,运用比较安全学的思想对安全绩效进行纵向对比,依据评价体系灰色关联度大小来判断施工企业安全绩效的水平高低。进而诊断出各企业安全绩效的优劣,为同类型的企业实际开展安全绩效评价提供指导性的方向和建议。     

基于人眼状态识别的驾驶员疲劳检测方法研究

提出一种基于眼睛状态识别的驾驶员疲劳状态检测的方法。首先通过建立肤色模型分割出人脸区域,再利用搜索连通域的方法实现眼睛区域的定位;然后计算出眼睛区域的垂直积分投影曲线,提取并比较曲线的特征参数,从而识别眼睛的状态;最后以眼睛闭合时间比率为测量标准实现对驾驶员疲劳程度的检测。实验表明,该方法简单、有效、实时性较好,疲劳检测的正确率较高。     

浅析高阶控制系统的校正方法

自动控制系统的难点就是对高阶复杂系统的方程线性化,从而实现控制,利用主导极点与偶极子的性质可以将高阶系统近似为一阶、二阶系统来分析,实现高阶系统的有效校正,实验结果符合控制要求。     

线性规划的一种表上作业法

根据目标函数的梯度向量在可行域内低维界面上的投影,给出线性规划逐维选优（强多项式）算法的表上作业法,并且用若干具体实例详细描述了表上作业法。     

丰富精神力量构筑隐性文化

通过对隐性文化作用的阐述,讨论了如何把高校图书馆建成隐性文化的中心,发挥高校图书馆在校园文化建设中的作用。     

B(H)上在某点处左可导映射的刻画

证明了如果为B(H)中一个非平凡投影，则从B(H)到自身的范数连续的在P处左可导映射恒为0.还证明了若δ是从B(H)到自身的范数连续的在0处左可导映射,则δ(A)=Aδ(I)，对于任意的A∈B(H).     

坐标轴正方向选取对力学问题求解的影响

在求解理论力学质点动力学问题时,因坐标系正方向的选取常常给学生带来许多困惑.通过两道典型习题,详细分析学生错解的原因,应用不同的符号法则给出正确的求解过程,对比总结出坐标系建立的一般方法及解题中关键问题.帮助学生澄清疑惑,提高规范严谨的解题能力.