生物种群Logistic扩展模型灰色增量生成参数辨识方法及应用

提出 Logistic扩展模型 LM(n,1 )的一般形式 ,将内禀增长率 r扩展为具有复合振动特征的时变参数项 ,相应参数的生物、生态学意义明确 .基于灰色 GM (n,1 )微分动态建模原理 ,按离散数据序列特点 ,探索出灰色高阶增量动态 GMS(n,1 )建模原理与方法 ,为 LM (n,1 )模型及若干生长曲线模拟提供了有效、规范的参数辨识方法 .GMS(n,1 )模型的信息包容量丰富 ,适用范围广 .实际模拟结果表明精度极高     

改进的遗传规划研究

针对遗传规划中群体规模较大。收敛效率较低等特点,提出了对传统遗传规划中初始群体的生成方法的改进．使生成的初始群体具有良好的性能,从而提高遗传规划的收敛效率．通过对两个函数进行符号回归验证,说明此方法是合理可行的．     

Non-invasive genetic study and population monitoring of the brown bear (Ursus arctos) (Mammalia: Ursidae) in Kastoria region – Greece

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Greece is considered endangered but little is known about the genetic status and the exact size of local populations. Non-invasive genetic sampling was used in this study to investigate the genetic diversity and genetic structure of the brown bear population in the Kastoria region (northwest Macedonia, Greece) and to estimate its population size. Estimation of demographic parameters was based on innovative, well-evaluated methods that can provide estimates from a single sampling session. DNA was extracted from hairs, scat and blood samples and subsequent amplification of 10 microsatellite loci allowed the identification of a minimum number of 75 living bears in the study area while the mark–recapture-based analysis resulted in a point estimation of 219 individuals. Relatively high diversity values, lack of heterozygosity deficiency as well as estimated effective population size, support the Kastoria bear population having good conservation status.     

Diet composition of an invasive population of Lithobates catesbeianus (American Bullfrog) from Argentina

The American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus has been introduced around the world, with invasive populations reported from almost all South American countries. A population of this species was introduced in the Calingasta department of San Juan province, which is an arid environment in western Argentina. This work provides information on the dietary composition of an invasive population of L. catesbeianus, and compares the degree of dietary overlap between adults and juveniles. Stomach contents of 169 bullfrogs (82 adults and 87 juveniles) were analysed. Adults consumed 40 prey taxa and Hymenoptera (Insecta) was the most numerous prey item (41.8%), followed by Araneae (13.6%) and Aeglidae (13.4%). Juveniles consumed 29 prey taxa and Hymenoptera constituted the highest percentage in prey number (77.2%). The trophic overlap niche index at the same level shows a value of 0.64 overlap in dietary community between adults and juveniles of this bullfrog. Aeglidae was volumetrically the most important trophic item (25.4%), followed by Anura (25.02%). Our results showed that cannibalism in bullfrogs is more common than the consumption of native anurans, coinciding with that reported in other populations of introduced bullfrogs. The high similarity in the diets of both size classes and the association between the size of the predator and prey suggest that the impact caused by bullfrogs throughout their ontogeny is high and probably has an impact on their prey. Freshwater crabs are the main items in the diet of Lithobates catesbeianus in other introduced populations and are usually the most conspicuous at our study site. The crabs in freshwater ecosystems are part of the lowest trophic level in the food chain. The major threats to the southern region’s freshwater crabs include deforestation, farming and exotic species. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet and high overlap between adults and juveniles.     

中国人口系统结构的灰色关联分析

根据1998～2003年中国人口数据,利用灰色系统理论和灰色关联分析模型法建立由总人口、城镇人口、乡村人口等17个影响人口增长的关联因素构成的指标体系及灰色关联分析模型,对中国人口系统结构进行关联分析,以期找出影响人口增长的主要因素,为我国人口系统的建模、预测、决策、规划、管理和控制提供了的依据,以便实现人口与资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展.运算和系统分析结果显示人口增长的主要影响因素为:女性人口、城乡人口、年龄结构、性别结构和人口自然增长率.其中,15～49岁的育龄妇女、农村人口和人口自然增长率3个因素对总人口和年净增人数影响最大.本文中国人口系统结构的灰色关联分析结果较符合中国人口的实际情况,为中国人口发展与控制的管理决策提供了一种新的有效方法.     

自适应滤波器在微型姿态确定系统中的应用

基于MEMS的IMU由于低成本、体积小和低耗能得到了很广泛的应用.但是,惯性MEMS传感器有很大的噪声、偏差以及刻度误差,由于传统低成本的MEMS传感器使用的捷联算法很难取得令人满意符合性能要求的姿态确定值.利用改进的自适应增益卡尔曼滤波器在随机模式下建立一个小型姿态确定系统.这个改进的滤波器在一个时间变量转移矩阵中有六个状态量,它们分别是:三个姿态倾斜角和三个陀螺偏移误差.滤波器用三个加速度计的测量量和磁罗盘来驱动状态的更新.当系统处于非加速度状态下,加速度计对重力加速度的测量以及磁罗盘对航向的测量很显然可以产生很好的状态估计量;当系统处于高速动态状态并且偏移可以收敛到一个精确估计值时,对姿态的估算就需要很长一段时间.自适应滤波器可以在动态状况下用加速度计自动调整增益产生最佳性能.提供了这种技术的算法,并且对此进行分析,之后给出实验结果.     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

基于动态种群结构的粒子群算法及仿真研究

针对标准粒子群算法易陷入局部最优而早熟的问题,提出了一种基于动态种群结构的粒子群算法。该算法在种群结构中引入小世界网络模型,由于网络模型的演化,使算法具有动态的种群结构,从而保持了种群的多样性。同时为了使粒子尽可能地分布在不同的搜索空间,在网络模型演化过程中考虑了结点的个体价值。为了加快算法的收敛速度,在进化后期采用全局模型粒子群算法。通过对三个经典测试函数优化问题的数值仿真并与其它方法进行比较,结果表明了算法的有效性和实用性。     

Error analysis on heading determination via genetic algorithms

1 .INTRODUCTIONHigh-accuracy headinginformationis ani mportantparameter which is used to ensure the security ofships and the kilter of the weapon systems . One ofthe main factors which affect the precision of navi-gation devices’heading information is initial erec-tion error and drift error of the devices . Dynamicinitial calibrationin dockis al ways a difficult prob-lem when navigation devices are first installed orthe ships are mooring. This results a series ofharmful effects such as l…     

赫哲人口的现状与发展态势

适度的人口数量,较高的人口素质和合理的人口结构会对民族的进步、社会的可持续发展具有积极的作用。新中国成立后,赫哲人口数量有了很大增加,人口质量也得到一定程度的提高,人口结构趋于合理。但从现状和发展态势看,还存在一定问题。掌握赫哲族人口现状,认清人口发展态势,可为赫哲族发展创造良好的环境,并为国家制定人口较少民族的人口政策以及和谐社会的构建提供相关依据。