Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

几个广义Apostol-Bernoulli、Apostol-Euler多项式之间的关系式

利用发生函数理论结合某些运算技巧,推出了几个广义Apostol-Bernoulli多项式、广义Apostol-Euler多项式之间的关系式.多个参数出现在等式中,非常工整.在关系式中选取适当的参数,就可以得到已有的著名的关于广义Bernoulli多项式、广义Euler多项式之间的关系式,从而深化和推广了对Bernoulli数、Euler数、Bernoulli多项式、Euler多项式的相关研究结果.     

Forecasting in long horizons using smoothed direct forecast

This paper constructs a forecast method that obtains long‐horizon forecasts with improved performance through modification of the direct forecast approach. Direct forecasts are more robust to model misspecification compared to iterated forecasts, which makes them preferable in long horizons. However, direct forecast estimates tend to have jagged shapes across horizons. Our forecast method aims to “smooth out” erratic estimates across horizons while maintaining the robust aspect of direct forecasts through ridge regression, which is a restricted regression on the first differences of regression coefficients. The forecasts are compared to the conventional iterated and direct forecasts in two empirical applications: real oil prices and US macroeconomic series. In both applications, our method shows improvement over direct forecasts.     

基于ESI和InCites的学科发展预测研究--以中国地质大学为例

基于汤姆路透公司的ESI和InCites数据库，分析了中国地质大学各学科的特征，探讨了高被引论文、热门论文、顶尖论文与学科发展的关系，并预测后续最有可能入围ESI世界前1％的学科。     

六角螺系统的 Harmonic 指标

图G的 Harmonic指标定义为图G 中所有边uv 的权重2du＋dv 的和，用 H（G）表示；二阶Harmonic指标被定义为图G中所有二长路uvw的权重3du＋dv＋dw 的和，用2H（G）表示；其中du表示G中点u的度数。该文研究了六角螺链和六角螺系统的 Harmonic 指标，发现它们的极图不唯一。通过研究二阶 Harmonic指标，确定了六角螺链的极图，发现六角螺系统的极图是一类特定的图。并且找到一个关于Harmonic 指标的极图和二阶 Harmonic 指标的极图的关系。最后，提出一个关于 Harmonic 指标的开放新问题。     

一类血吸虫病模型Hopf分支的频域分析

运用频域上的分支理论研究了一类血吸虫病传播模型的Hopf分支动态，严格证明了Hopf分支的存在性，运用四阶调和平衡方法推导出由Hopf分支产生的周期轨的近似解析表达式、频率和振幅。研究结果表明，被感染的钉螺由潜伏期进入易传染期的几率δ对人体内寄生虫数量有重要影响。     

基于变量选择-神经网络模型的复杂路网短时交通流预测

摘要： 针对传统交通流预测模型正在由单断面历史数据处理向多断面、多时刻历史数据处理转变,但在考虑各断面间的影响时,多变的交通状况往往会使预测模型复杂化的问题,引入一种多元线性回归最小绝对收缩和选择算子方法(Lasso),并利用其优秀的变量选择能力,在复杂路网多断面中选出相关性较高的断面；结合神经网络(NN)的非线性特性,提出了Lasso NN组合模型.结果表明：Lasso NN模型在路网交叉口对未来15 min交通流数据预测的误差率低于9.2%；在非交叉口的误差率低于6.7%,总体优于各自单独使用得出的结果.     

基于学习的证券市场专家预测意见合成研究

针对证券市场的专家预测意见的特点，研究了将学习、证据理论与协同学理论引入证券市场专家预测意见合成的理论与方法．讨论了将专家的历史预测数据用基本可信数表示作为学习样本，对初选专家进行聚类分析选择有协同效应的专家．该方法用神经网络优化基本可信数的修正系数，再用Dempster合成规则进行预测意见的合成．实验结果表明该方法应用于解决实际问题时具有较好的效果．     

关于Cauchy中值定理逆问题的渐近性

对Cauchy中值定理的逆问题作了进一步的研究,得到了Cauchy中值定理逆问题的渐近性.     

待定系数法在无理函数积分中的应用

在教学过程中通过对练习题: 的求解、分析、综合和归纳得: (1) 式中P_n(X)_9 Q_n(x)均为n次多项式,其中Q_n(x)的各项系数待定。 (2) 式中P_n(x)为n次多项式,f_(n-1)(x)为各项系数待定的(n-1)次多项式,μ_n为待定常数。