Does a lot help a lot? Forecasting stock returns with pooling strategies in a data‐rich environment

A variety of recent studies provide a skeptical view on the predictability of stock returns. Empirical evidence shows that most prediction models suffer from a loss of information, model uncertainty, and structural instability by relying on low‐dimensional information sets. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of various lately refined forecasting strategies, which handle these issues by incorporating information from many potential predictor variables simultaneously. We investigate whether forecasting strategies that (i) combine information and (ii) combine individual forecasts are useful to predict US stock returns, that is, the market excess return, size, value, and the momentum premium. Our results show that methods combining information have remarkable in‐sample predictive ability. However, the out‐of‐sample performance suffers from highly volatile forecast errors. Forecast combinations face a better bias–efficiency trade‐off, yielding a consistently superior forecast performance for the market excess return and the size premium even after the 1970s.     

Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality‐forecasting models be associated with real‐world trends in health‐related variables? Does inclusion of health‐related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle‐related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

COM组件的设计与使用

本文从现代编程思想出发，介绍了COM组件技术及在现实编程环境中遇到的一些有关COM编程的关键技术．并具体描述了联机手写汉字规整化COM组件的设计及在客户程序中如何使用组件．     

基于EDA工具的数字电子系统设计

介绍了基于 EDA工具的硬件电子系统的设计方法 ,并针对特定的在系统可编程 CPL D器件 isp L SI10 16目标芯片描述了自动洗衣机模拟控制器的程序设计步骤 ,给出了 HDL程序代码     

单片机控制HSW－1500高速带极堆焊电源的研制

在带极堆焊电源模拟控制研究的基础上，开展了新型微机控制系统的研究，介绍了这种电源控制系统的电路组成和工作原理。研究结果表明：数控高速堆焊电源ＨＳＷ－１５００，输出电压稳定、调节范围广、网压波动补偿能力强，保护性能可靠，达到了ＨＳＷ法和ＥＳＷ法对电源提出的性能要求，能够获得高质量的焊道。     

红豆浆果的成分分析

红豆学名越桔(Cowberry,拉丁名Vaccinium Vitis-idaea),为杜鹃花科野生植物,果实红色,味酸甜,可生食,亦可用糖或盐淹后食用。内蒙古大兴安岭一带盛产,藏量丰富。当地用其来酿制红豆酒及生产软饮料。急待开发新产品,以便提高资源利用率。 本文着眼于内蒙地区丰富的天然资源及应用现状,对红豆果的组成及氨基酸的含量进行了测定。结果表明,其中含有常见的十八种氨基酸,八种人体必需的氨基酸,且含量较高,具有很高的营养价值。这为该项资源的开发和深加工提供了可靠的实验数据。     

按键共享式硬件防抖方法研究

讨论一种用于电子设备的共享式仿软件的硬件按键防抖措施，措施不但可使键信号处处光滑，两沿陡峭，而且多键共享，成本降低，本方法即是完善硬件防抖措施又是开辟新的防抖途径．     

小推偏喷管理论实验研究

根据小推偏喷管理论,对具有稳定的扰动因素的不同入口条件的拉瓦尔喷管作了大量实验,本文介绍了根据实验得出的侧向九随喷管扩张段长度的变化规律,以及对零点位置、半波长、极值点的变化关系,并进行了分析和比较,本文所得结果,为火箭设计工作提供了一些有益参考资料。     

校园一卡通系统设计方案

针对各类学校的综合管理，提出了“校园一卡通系统”的设计方案，此方案建立了完善的网络硬件平台。