Theoretical construction in physics – The role of Leibniz for Weyl's ‘Philosophie der Mathematik und Naturwissenschaft’

This paper aims at closing a gap in recent Weyl research by investigating the role played by Leibniz for the development and consolidation of Weyl's notion of theoretical (symbolic) construction. For Weyl, just as for Leibniz, mathematics was not simply an accompanying tool when doing physics—for him it meant the ability to engage in well-guided speculations about a general framework of reality and experience. The paper first introduces some of the background of Weyl's notion of theoretical construction and then discusses particular Leibnizian inheritances in Weyl's ‘Philosophie der Mathematik und Naturwissenschaft’, such as the general appreciation of the principles of sufficient reason and of continuity. Afterwards the paper focuses on three themes: first, Leibniz's primary quality phenomenalism, which according to Weyl marked the decisive step in realizing that physical qualities are never apprehended directly; second, the conceptual relation between continuity and freedom; and third, Leibniz's notion of ‘expression’, which allows for a certain type of (surrogative) reasoning by structural analogy and which gave rise to Weyl's optimism regarding the scope of theoretical construction.     

A new twist to the No Miracles Argument for the success of science

J. D. Trout has recently developed a new defense of scientific realism, a new version of the No Miracles Argument. I critically evaluate Trout's novel defense of realism. I argue that Trout's argument for scientific realism and the related explanation for the success of science are self-defeating. In the process of arguing against the traditional realist strategies for explaining the success of science, he inadvertently undermines his own argument.     

Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

Terrestrial isopods and myriapods in a forested scree slope: subterranean biodiversity,depth gradient and annual dynamics

Diversity, depth distribution and seasonal activity of isopods and myriapods were studied using subterranean traps buried in a forested limestone scree slope in the ?ierna Hora Mts, Western Carpathians, Slovakia, throughout the depth gradient from 5 to 95 cm. A total of five isopod, 13 diplopod and 11 chilopod species were identified. Most edaphic species strongly preferred the uppermost organic soil layers. Among the species captured, some represented rare stenoecous Carpathian endemics, namely the isopod Trichoniscus carpaticus, and diplopods Julus curvicornis and Leptoiulus mariae. Others were subterranean forms, partly adapted to hypogean conditions: the isopod Mesoniscus graniger, and diplopods Mecogonopodium carpathicum and Trachysphaera costata. The annual activity in the vast majority of the species ceased completely in winter, and was gradually relaunched in spring. In evaluating the age structure of two predominant diplopods Polydesmus denticulatus and Mecogonopodium carpathicum, both widespread across the depth gradient, a vertical segregation of early post-embryonic stages was found. While P. denticulatus tended to undergo the early stages of development in the soil-filled topmost levels, the early juvenile stage of M. carpathicum was distributed deep in the scree slope profile.     

基于自注意力机制的科技术语自动提取技术研究

科技术语提取是科技术语自动处理的重要环节,对后续的机器翻译、信息检索、QA问答等任务有重要意义.传统的人工科技术语提取方法耗费大量的人力成本.而一种自动提取科技术语方法是将术语提取转化为序列标注问题,通过监督学习方法训练出标注模型,但是面临缺乏大规模科技术语标注语料库的问题.文章引入远程监督的方法来产生大规模训练标注语...     

拟真世界与客体策略——鲍德里亚的技术决定论及启示

鲍德里亚的后现代理论是一种典型的技术决定论,他构建了一个由模型、符码所生成的拟真世界,在那里DNA和0/1数字具有了本体论意义。在高科技的世界里,主体失去了丰富而多样的存在,成为技术的创造物和附属物。伴随着主体衰落而产生的是客体的兴盛与强大,客体世界开始控制并主宰着人类社会的运行。鲍德里亚由此提出一种消极的宿命论,即客体系统自身发展到完美、极致,并在顶点上自动内爆、反转。鲍德里亚的理论对于我们反思日益频繁的自然灾害和技术危机、对于重新考量人与自然、技术之间关系提供了有益的启示。     

红山诸文化"神鸟"崇拜与萨满"鸟神"

鸟崇拜是人类原始图腾崇拜的普遍形式.距今8000～5000年的红山诸文化曾经有过十分发达的“神鸟“崇拜.在考古发现的遗物中有许多各类鸟形纹样、鸟形雕塑和以石、陶、泥、木、玉等材质制成的鸟形器和佩饰物.鸟是北方诸族萨满的主神或主要保护神,在北方古代游牧民族中鸟崇拜和鸟祖神话十分流行.红山诸文化的“神鸟“崇拜与北方民族的“鸟神“崇拜,特别是萨满“鸟神“有诸多相似之处.     

锥阀稳态液动力及阀芯表面压力分布数值模拟

基于Fluent流场仿真软件,对锥阀外流和内流情况下阀芯所受稳态液动力及阀芯表面压力分布进行了数值模拟和分析。结果表明,稳态液动力随着阀口压差的增大而增加;当阀口压差大于2.5MPa时,阀芯表面出现负压,阀口处发生气蚀;当阀口开度为1mm时,稳态液动力最大;在其他条件相同的情况下,锥阀内流时的液动力小于锥阀外流时的液动力。     

A Comparison of the Forecasting Ability of Immediate Price Impact Models

As a consequence of recent technological advances and the proliferation of algorithmic and high‐frequency trading, the cost of trading in financial markets has irrevocably changed. One important change, known as price impact, relates to how trading affects prices. Price impact represents the largest cost associated with trading. Forecasting price impact is very important as it can provide estimates of trading profits after costs and also suggest optimal execution strategies. Although several models have recently been developed which may forecast the immediate price impact of individual trades, limited work has been done to compare their relative performance. We provide a comprehensive performance evaluation of these models and test for statistically significant outperformance amongst candidate models using out‐of‐sample forecasts. We find that normalizing price impact by its average value significantly enhances the performance of traditional non‐normalized models as the normalization factor captures some of the dynamics of price impact. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.