近断层地震动峰值加速度特性研究

在收集了世界范围内自由场地的近断层地震记录基础上,综合考虑台站场地和震级的差别,应用统计分析方法对近断层地震动的峰值加速度的衰减关系进行了研究,并与实际记录进行了比较,发现场地和震级的共同作用对近断层地震动的影响是显著的,为进一步的研究提供了参考.     

Newton and action at a distance between bodies—A response to Andrew Janiak's “Three concepts of causation in Newton”

This article responds to Professor Andrew Janiak's recent attempt to defend the proposition that Isaac Newton did not believe in action at a distance between bodies (or any other kind of substance) (Janiak, 2013). His argument rests on a distinction between “three concepts of causation in Newton”, which leads him to conclude that although Newton did not believe in action at a distance between bodies, he was able to accept that gravity was a “distant action”. I critically examine Janiak's arguments here, and the historical evidence he brings to bear upon it, and argue that Professor Janiak's latest claims do nothing to undermine the view to which he is opposed, namely, that Newton did believe in the possibility of action at a distance between bodies.     

Avian mortality due to power lines in the Canary Islands with special reference to the steppe-land birds

Biodiversity is being lost worldwide at an increased rate particularly as the result of human activities and infrastructure. Avian mortality through collision with power lines has been an important topic in animal ecology research, but studies of this kind have never been undertaken in the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago located near the northwest African coast that has important seabird colonies, several endemic bird species and endemic races of steppe-land birds of conservation concern. During two contrasting periods in 2008 (breeding vs post-breeding), a total of 366 km of power lines were surveyed on this archipelago covering the entire distributional range of the most important steppe-land bird species (i.e. 232 km, Fuerteventura; 134 km, Lanzarote). In all, 310 carcasses representing 23 families and 26 species were detected. We estimated with distance Sampling that 25.5% and 6.3% of individuals of the total population of Houbara bustards, Chlamydotis undulata fuertaventurae, and Eurasian stone curlews, Burhinus oedicnemus insularum, respectively, were killed in a year. We encourage the Canary Islands authorities (Consejería de Medio Ambiente del Gobierno de Canarias) to try to minimize the Houbara bustard collision rate, particularly in the northern plains of Lanzarote (i.e. Jables de Famara), as a means to reduce mortality of this emblematic species in this insular environment.     

成本视角下全要素能源生产率评价与解构

本文依据中国"低成本"竞争模式,基于"要素价格"和"多产出"的双约束,构建一种新型的全要素能源生产率指数,并沿着"要素价格-成本权衡-区域能源效率变化"的逻辑链条,从成本视角对全要素能源生产率指数解构,探寻中国区域能源效率的时空分布特征以及根本动因,研究表明:1)要素价格扭曲的"低成本"策略通过技术效率和要素配置效率影响全要素能源生产率的变动,且后者逐渐成为影响我国区域全要素能源生产率指数变动的关键因素.2)就全国而言,能源利用效率和能源配置效率在节能减排政策实施前后有显著的跳跃性增长,说明市场化进程加快、节能减排政策实施能显著提高我国整体能源利用效率和配置效率.3)东部地区能源利用效率表现较好,但因要素市场扭曲程度较高,能源配置效率相对较低;中西部地区技术水平较低,但要素市场扭曲程度相对较小,短期内市场化改革决定的要素配置效率对区域全要素能源生产率提升更重要。     

比例导引末端区特征与划分

制导末端区是制导系统失稳前一个很短的制导段,制导末端区的正确划分对制导系统设计指标制定和性能分析具有重要意义.基于目标最优机动条件下线性化导弹目标运动学模型,研究了比例导引制导系统在末端区的特性,根据制导系统时间常数和阻尼比变化特征,提出根据制导系统特征参数划分末端区的定义方法,仿真计算表明本文的定义方法是合适的.研究结论对制导系统设计,相关总体指标制定和性能仿真验证具有参考意义.     

两点源干扰下的反辐射导弹误差距离进一步探讨

结合现有非相干两点源抗反辐射导弹模型的研究成果,通过分析反辐射导弹的导引和运动机理,进一步细化了反辐射导弹的攻击过程,在此基础上对两点源干扰下的反辐射导弹误差距离进行了探讨.针对现有模型中存在的一些不足,分析了多种因素对反辐射导弹误差距离的影响,进一步完善了非相干两点源干扰下的反辐射导弹误差距离模型.通过示例对给出的模型进行了分析验证.     

Multiple targets vector miss distance measurement accuracy based on 2-D assignment algorithms

An extension of 2-D assignment approach is proposed for measurement-to-target association for improving multiple targets vector miss distance measurement accuracy. When the multiple targets move so closely, the measurements can not be fully resolved due to finite resolution. The proposed method adopts an auction algorithm to compute the feasible measurement-to-target assignment with unresolved measurements for solving this 2-D assignment problem. Computer simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of this method.     

线性测量误差模型及其诊断

利用校正似然法对讨论了系统分析中测量误差的设计问题,在此基础上讨论了该模型的诊断,并给出了若干个诊断统计量,数值实例表明本文的方法是比较有效的。     

HIV模型的统计诊断

描述HIV的数学模型是一组非线性常微分方程,其中包括CD4+T细胞再感染率和死亡率,HIV病毒死亡率等多个重要未知参数,准确估计这些参数有助于正确了解患者病情发展,以采用个人化治疗方案.针对此模型已提出多个参数估计方法,包括基于数值解的非线性最小二乘,截面似然及两步估计.另一方面,由于客观因素影响,各观测数据对于参数估计的影响大小不同,找出对参数估计影响大的观测值,进一步分析其原因具有重要意义.基于HIV模型的两步估计,构造了用于影响分析的非参数Cook型统计量,并给出其大样本分布.通过模拟数据和临床数据分析发现:(1)所构造统计量可以检测中度以上偏移.(2)相对于内点,边界点对HIV模型的参数估计影响更大.基于以上结论,建议对HIV模型进行参数估计时,对边界点应加以格外关注.提出的方法也可以推广到其他线性常微分方程模型的统计诊断问题中.     

现代远程开放大学“校训”内涵研究

在远程开放大学校训文化建设进程中,探寻校训的内涵构成要素,厘定校训的内容要素,分析校训的形式要素,从而形成对远程开放大学校训内涵的全面关照,不失为一项基础性的理论研究工作。