The effects of the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing on the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks

The Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)is configured for the region of(15°–41°N,105°–135°E),which covers the same area with the MASNUM(Key Lab.Marine ScienceNumerical Modeling,State Oceanic Administration)wave-tide-circulation coupled operational forecast system.Three numerical experiments are implemented to investigate the effects of the real-time forecasted sea surface temperature(SST)and the nonbreaking wave-induced vertical mixing(Bv)on the track forecast of all 33 tropical cyclones(TC)in the model domain area during 2008 and 2011.The first experiment employs NCEP FNL(NCEP final analysis)SST as WRF’s bottom condition as the Control run,which is also the default setup of WRF.The second and third experiments use real-time forecasted SST from the MASNUM forecast system with and without Bv,respectively.The forecasted track results are compared with Japan Meteorological Agency’s best track data.For 24-h forecast,the averaged TC position error of Experiment with Bv is reduced by 9%compared to the Control experiment,while the forecasted track error of Experiment without Bv is reduced by only2%compared to the Control experiment.For the 48-h forecast,the averaged track errors are reduced by 10%and6%with Bv and without Bv compared to the Control experiment,respectively.These results suggest that the real-time forecasted SST can improve the performance of WRF in forecasting TC track,and the Bv plays an important role in reducing the forecast error of TC track.Comparatively,Bv can improve more on the track of stronger TC.     

The age of synthesis: From cognitive science to converging technologies and hereafter

This paper describes the development of two of the most important scientific disciplines in the last quarter of the 20th century, cognitive science, which emerged in 1975, and nano-bio-info-cogno (NBIC) converging technologies, which emerged in 2000. In this century, we will achieve cross-disciplinary integration, innovation in comprehensive knowledge and comprehensive devel opment in human resources. NBIC converging technologies will greatly expand human cognition and communication, improve human health, enhance social outcomes, strengthen national security and unify science and education. Cognitive science and converging technologies will have major effects on the future human development. I argue that the 21st century represents an age of synthesis, reflected in the continual reintegration between scientific disciplines in recent times. This new age of synthesis will require innovations in thought and methodology that differ from those underlying the age of analysis in the 20th century. I predict that these developments will allow every individual to realize comprehensive development. Accordingly, the education system will be transformed, and a comprehensive human resources system will be created.     

新课标下田径教学的问题及采取的对策

中学田径教学的不景气，主要是因为教学方法的陈1El，教学内容的单一以及教学评价的不合理所造成的。要想改变这种局面，我们就必须在诸多方面更新理念、有所变革。     

基于三次指数平滑的云南学龄儿童人数预测研究

构建科学、准确的学龄儿童人数预测模型,对合理规划小学学校数量,制定小学教师招聘计划,制定人口政策具有一定的参考价值。根据预测误差平方和最小原则,利用Matlab循环语句命令编程,设定平滑系数α的一个精度,从0α1的所有值中选择最优α,研究发现利用该法建立的三次指数平滑模型在学龄儿童人数预测方面有较好的预测效果;在此基础上利用马尔科夫预测法,对三次指数平滑模型预测结果进行修正,弥补了因随机波动性导致的预测误差偏大的情形;通过对这两个模型预测结果的对比分析,表明三次指数平滑-马尔科夫模型的预测效果比单独利用三次指数平滑模型的效果有较大改善。     

钢铁企业轨梁万能生产线仿真建模

针对钢铁企业的轨梁万能生产线在生产中存在的新产品调试生产周期过长、生产瓶颈不易诊断、设备利用率低等问题,分析了钢铁企业轨梁万能生产线不同于传统离散制造以及流程制造过程的特点,在此基础上建立了半连续半离散的轨梁万能生产线的Petri网模型和各设备的仿真组件模型,开发了轨梁万能生产线的仿真系统,并用一个实际的工程应用案例,验证了该仿真模型及其系统的可操作性以及有效性,达到了提高生产现场轨梁万能生产线的生产效率和产能的目的.     

《瘗鹤铭》雷门鼓事试析

《瘗鹤铭》引用的雷门鼓事传说,在《金山本》中表述为“山阴降迹”,而在其他文本中则为“雷门去鼓”。前者表示鼓震洛阳、仙鹤神异的事迹;后者体现的是鼓破不鸣鹤飞的内容。对照铭文,用典是为了突出仙家身世,故当以《金山本》的表述最具原真,并从中折射出东晋侨民怀念故都洛阳的情感。     

云南澜沧老厂矿区石炭系划分及原中上石炭统碳酸盐岩时代归属探讨

参照目前的石炭纪和二叠纪地层划分方案,笔者将云南澜沧老厂矿区石炭系与滇西凤庆平掌剖面石炭系进行对比,认为老厂矿区只存在相当于平掌组下段的地层;根据在矿区原中上石炭统"C2 3"碳酸盐岩中所采到的化石面貌显示,该套碳酸盐岩应该属于早二叠世紫松期的沉积,即为下二叠统鱼塘寨组的上段,因而矿区平掌组上段的地层及上石炭统缺失.并重新厘定了老厂矿区的地层层序.     

5个年龄栓皮栎热值与灰分含量的分析

不同年龄栓皮栎的灰分含量、干质量热值和去灰分热值是栓皮栎能源开发利用的重要基础。通过对5个年龄栓皮栎不同器官热值、灰分含量的分析,得出:平均灰分含量从高到低时的树龄依次为46、36、17、57、27 a;枝或干的灰分含量低于叶或皮。平均干质量热值从高到低的树龄依次为27、57、36、17、46 a;树叶、树皮、树干的干质量热值与灰分含量均呈不显著负相关,树枝的干质量热值与灰分含量间为极显著线性负相关,平均干质量热值与灰分含量呈显著线性负相关;枝或干的干质量热值均低于叶或皮。平均去灰分热值从高到低时的树龄依次为57、27、36、17、46 a;枝或干的去灰分热值均低于叶或皮。从热值与栓皮栎能源林的经营成本考虑,17、27、36、46、57 a的5个栓皮栎年龄段中,27 a可为栓皮栎能源林的理想经营年龄。     

补肾益气类中药对男性田径运动员血清睾酮和皮质醇的影响

目的:探讨补肾益气类中药在对田径运动员运动能力的重要作用.方法:用试验法获得血清睾酮、血清皮质醇和血清睾酮与皮质醇比值3个生化指标的数据,用SPSS l3.0统计学软件对所得数据进行T检验和描述性统计.结果:(1)服药组在训练的第1周的血清睾酮虽略有下降,但在第2周和第4周就有回升,并且稳定到了试验前水平;(2)服药组...     

基于测年法的永安石林形成年代及发育演化过程研究

以永安石林地区地质、水文地质资料为背景,利用不平衡铀系法,对区内不同高程的钙华沉积物岩样进行年龄测定,确定了永安石林形成年代为中更新世以来,距今约50万年.结合区域地质构造历史及沙溪河谷地貌发育演化过程,认为:永安石林的形成始于早更新世;主要是因地壳间歇性抬升运动且大湖盆地开始处于剥蚀环境,石炭二叠纪碳酸盐岩的上覆岩层逐渐被风化剥蚀后形成.