Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

变速齿轮传动系统最佳轴向结构布局智能设计的推理机制

本文通过对变速齿轮传动系统轴向结构布局设计规律的研究,提出了一种适合于该类问题的知识表达方式,将改进后的带有启发函数的最佳优先搜索方法引入到该问题的求解中,使得含有多重搜索空间以及带有一定约束的设计问题统一在同一搜索策略下。根据本文提出的方法,用PROLOG语言建造的推理机,通过对实际问题的考证,证明该方法在解决传动结构自动设计上是行之有效的,并且在推理机制上成功地体现了设计过程中反复设计与优化设计的功能特征.     

Titius—Bode定则的发展,天体量子论和泛量子理论

太阳系的Titius-Bode定则可以发展为r_n=an~2,令α_1=0.042,n=3,4,5,6是类地行星;令α_2=1.2,n=2,3,4,5,6是类木行星。此时海王星、冥王星都是规则的,且适用于大多数卫星。由此可以完全类比于玻尔原子模型,并得出太阳系量子常数H=(αGM_⊙)~(1/2)和天体薛定谔方程。这样距离规则是行星演化时统计性的结果,宇宙中应普遍存在波粒二象性和形式相似而量子常数各不相同的泛量子理论。     

大豆开花期缺水和遮光处理叶片解剖结构的观察

大豆珍珠塔3号具有双子叶植物叶片结构特征,但在海绵组织最上层有一层特殊细胞——平脉叶肉细胞,此层细胞具有水平运输和气体交换的特殊作用。大豆开花期光照对叶片结构发育起主导作用;水分亦是影响叶片结构发育的重要因素;光弱块水条件下,大豆表现出对光的竞争比对水的竞争更明显。     

RSCRR空间5杆变角机构的结构和几种位置分析方法

本文对有名的 RSCRR 空间5杆变角机构进行了结构分析,进而用4种不同的方法对其进行位置分析,得出了相同的结论,证明了机构输出角δ与输入角α的关系是δ:arcsin[ctgλtg(arcctg((a/e)+cisa)/(sina))],并用实例证明了结论的正确。     

过量降水对重要建筑物的影响

以变截面筒体高层建筑结构为例，讨论了过量降水对重要建筑物的影响．计算结果表明，过量降水引起的非均匀地基变形对高层建筑结构的顶端侧移、层间侧移、上部结构的翘曲位移、地基和基础结构底部应力的影响是非常显著的．     

海南山蛭机能组织学研究

对海南山蛭Haemadipsa hainana连续横切片观察,以及显微解剖观察.研究了①海南山蛭体壁组织结构及其主要功能,包括角质层,表皮,肌内层的环肌、斜肌、纵肌,背腹肌,结缔组织、葡萄组织.②山蛭的感觉器官的结构和功能:眼、体节感受器、机械感受细胞.③山蛭的消化系统的颚、咽和唾液腺结构和功能.结果表明,山蛭组织结构与功能和环境相适应.