公务卡实际应用问题对策研究

公务卡报销制度是现代信息化的标志,是电子政务化的必然结果,近几年应用过程中出现的诸多问题影响公务卡的发展。因此,针对目前公务卡应用中存在的问题进行了详细剖析,并从扩大宣传、改善用卡环境,完善公务卡银行服务体系,推动公务卡制度发展等方面提出了一些应对措施。     

企业网格与网格使能的业务转型研究

企业网格具有巨大的潜在商业价值,它受到了企业界和学术界的重视,但仍存在一系列技术和应用的问题。从企业网格应用的视角出发,界定了企业网格及相关的几个概念,介绍了企业网格的应用现状和存在的问题,最后提出一个网格使能的业务转型框架模型,该模型说明了企业网格对企业业务的影响。研究成果对学术界和企业CIO都有所帮助。     

我国大型电子商务网站应建立配套物流

随着电子商务行业在中国的不断发展,众多的电子商务企业(网站)在国内的影响力日益增大,对我国经济生活的各个领域产生了深远影响。目前我国大型电子商务网站中,已经比较好地解决了信息流和资金流的问题,但还没有建立配套的物流,已经成为我国大型电子商务网站发展的瓶颈问题。就我国大型电子商务企业(网站)建立配套物流的必要性和可行性进行了分析,并对大型电子商务网站物流建立中的相关问题作了探讨。     

浅谈高校图书馆编目业务外包的实施

随着网络信息技术的快速发展,高校图书馆编目作业方式发生了根本改变。从编目外包的概念及发展状况出发,分析了高校图书馆实施编目外包的动因、优势及风险,提出了成功实施高校图书馆编目外包的策略。     

面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统研究

依据博弈论的思路并借助于人工神经网络的机理设计并实现了一个面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统,该系统既为企业的战略制定与实施初步提供了一种无代价的实验手段,又验证了有关企业过程再造的主要理论假设,弥补了其实证研究的不足.并在一家企业得到了应用.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

商业模式创新分析——基于外部利益相关者视角

商业模式构成企业逻辑框架,同时也动态影响企业的整个运营流程,外部利益相关者作为情境变量,对商业模式价值的形成与创新有重要的影响作用。本研究将企业看作整体,通过分析政府机构、公众&社区、竞争性企业、互补性企业、供应商、消费者对企业的价值导向作用,并结合企业特征构建新的分析框架,从不同维度视角探索各类型企业在商业模式创新与外部利益相关者之间的作用关键点,为相关研究提供新的基础性研究框架。     

财务职能的制度经济学分析

企业的性质可从生产或技术的组织、稀少性价值增进与调控的机制、产权联合与“团队生产”的载体3个层面来认识.在这3个层面上,企业活动实际上是通过不同类型的交易展开的,因而企业应视为一种“交易的集约机构”.相应地,企业的财务活动也是以买卖的交易、管理的交易、限额的交易而展开的,分别行使具体的财务经营职能、财务管理职能、财务治理职能,并共同、联合地完成财务的基本职能,即配置企业拥有或控制的财务资源.     

道德风险约束下的最优融资结构——动态金融契约研究综述

债务违约、企业资金链断裂与破产,以及宏观层面的金融危机等经济金融现象促使经济学家反思金融契约的资源配置效率与风险问题.以契约理论的建模技术为逻辑主线,以信息非对称环境中最优契约设计与融资结构优化为关注对象,结合融资结构、资产定价与道德风险之间的内在联系,对动态金融契约理论的研究方法与研究成果进行了系统评述,并根据金融契约理论发展逻辑导出公司金融与资产定价的理论融合方向.基于理论发展路径,初步探讨了动态金融契约理论的未来拓展方向,并结合当前我国经济结构特点给出了该理论的应用前景.     

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.