金融系统的资源配置功能与经济增长

建立内生增长模型研究金融系统资源配置功能如何促进经济增长 .结论 :通过提高“创新平均成功概率”,增加“创新投资比例”、“储蓄转化比例”和储蓄率 ,金融系统能够促进经济快速稳定增长 .另外本文还得到产出 -资本比“阶跃”增长图象.     

媒体负面报道对公司股价影响的研究:来自白酒塑化剂事件的证据

金融学理论认为,资本价格会因意外重要事件的冲击而发生变化.过去许多文献讨论过股票价格与媒体报道这一外部冲击之间是否存在显著关系,但是,这些研究所得结论并不尽一致.基于此,本文以白酒塑化剂事件为例,分析塑化剂曝光新闻数量对白酒公司股价的影响.研究表明,塑化剂曝光在较长时间内影响了白酒板块的股价,但是曝光事件对各个公司股价影响的程度不一.此外,研究还发现,中央反腐抑制了白酒板块的股价.     

欧美股票市场对我国股票市场的传染效应研究——基于次贷与欧债危机背景

近年来,金融危机频频爆发且易表现出传染性,这使得金融传染引起国内外学者的高度关注.本文选取合适的动态条件相关模型研究欧美市场与A股、港股市场的条件相关性,结合内生多重结构突变模型与T检验方法划分危机传染期与平稳期,选用考虑外部影响的CCK模型研究A股、港股市场的羊群行为,随后,引入收益率分散度指标,研究两次危机的羊群行为传染渠道.研究结果表明:港股市场受两次危机传染的速度均快于A股市场,受传染的持续时间均长于A股市场,但受传染的程度均弱于A股市场:次贷危机传染程度强于欧债危机的传染程度,但传染的持续时间短于欧债危机:羊群行为传染渠道是两次危机对A股、港股市场的传染渠道之一.     

Forecasting the Daily Time‐Varying Beta of European Banks During the Crisis Period: Comparison Between GARCH Models and the Kalman Filter

This intention of this paper is to empirically forecast the daily betas of a few European banks by means of four generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and the Kalman filter method during the pre‐global financial crisis period and the crisis period. The four GARCH models employed are BEKK GARCH, DCC GARCH, DCC‐MIDAS GARCH and Gaussian‐copula GARCH. The data consist of daily stock prices from 2001 to 2013 from two large banks each from Austria, Belgium, Greece, Holland, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We apply the rolling forecasting method and the model confidence sets (MCS) to compare the daily forecasting ability of the five models during one month of the pre‐crisis (January 2007) and the crisis (January 2013) periods. Based on the MCS results, the BEKK proves the best model in the January 2007 period, and the Kalman filter overly outperforms the other models during the January 2013 period. Results have implications regarding the choice of model during different periods by practitioners and academics. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Neuro‐wavelet Model for the Short‐Term Forecasting of High‐Frequency Time Series of Stock Returns

We propose a wavelet neural network (neuro‐wavelet) model for the short‐term forecast of stock returns from high‐frequency financial data. The proposed hybrid model combines the capability of wavelets and neural networks to capture non‐stationary nonlinear attributes embedded in financial time series. A comparison study was performed on the predictive power of two econometric models and four recurrent neural network topologies. Several statistical measures were applied to the predictions and standard errors to evaluate the performance of all models. A Jordan net that used as input the coefficients resulting from a non‐decimated wavelet‐based multi‐resolution decomposition of an exogenous signal showed a consistent superior forecasting performance. Reasonable forecasting accuracy for the one‐, three‐ and five step‐ahead horizons was achieved by the proposed model. The procedure used to build the neuro‐wavelet model is reusable and can be applied to any high‐frequency financial series to specify the model characteristics associated with that particular series. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于我国现行财政转移支付制度的思考

从制度经济学的角度出发,论述了我国现行财政转移支付制度的作用和我国财政转移制度的主要形式、构成、特点,分析了其存在的缺陷,并提出了完善我国财政转移支付制度的一些建议。     

国家财政支农的效益性与路径选择

通过对国家财政支农宏观、中观、微观效益低下的实证分析,从国家预算、财政意识、政府博弈、配套政策诸方面探讨了影响财政支农效益的深层原因,进而指出国家财政支农的路径选择。     

非国有企业收购国有控股权绩效实证分析

选取了1997年到2004年中国证券市场上的非国有企业收购国有控股权的72个案例为样本,通过财务数据法以及事件分析法,对目标公司并购前后的财务绩效以及股票价格的变化进行了实证分析.研究发现,目标公司在被收购前业绩普遍比较差,与同行业平均水平相比,被收购前的财务指标均显著地小于0.并购后目标公司的财务指标有明显的好转,可见通过转让国有股权完成非国有企业并购国有企业是比较有效的.然而在证券市场上并没有得到充分的反映,股价仅表现为短期的投机性上涨.