浅析金融危机和贸易的关系

在分析金融危机与贸易关系的基础上,阐述了金融危机带来的危害,并从国际、国内两方面分析了引发金融危机的因素。     

金融信息网格诸问题的解析

为了实现金融系统的信息共享,针对金融系统大型计算机具有的分布性、异构性和协同性等特征,利用网格技术,从金融系统大型计算机的用户接口、外围编译器和文件系统的管理实现方面,提出了金融信息网格的用户门户,异构计算机系统编译器模型的构造,隐蔽网络延迟、提高网格数据利用率的网格虚拟文件管理系统(GVFMS:Grid Virtual File Management System),构建了金融信息网格的实现基础。实现了金融系统的互联互通。     

公务卡实际应用问题对策研究

公务卡报销制度是现代信息化的标志,是电子政务化的必然结果,近几年应用过程中出现的诸多问题影响公务卡的发展。因此,针对目前公务卡应用中存在的问题进行了详细剖析,并从扩大宣传、改善用卡环境,完善公务卡银行服务体系,推动公务卡制度发展等方面提出了一些应对措施。     

国家财政支农的效益性与路径选择

通过对国家财政支农宏观、中观、微观效益低下的实证分析,从国家预算、财政意识、政府博弈、配套政策诸方面探讨了影响财政支农效益的深层原因,进而指出国家财政支农的路径选择。     

关于我国现行财政转移支付制度的思考

从制度经济学的角度出发,论述了我国现行财政转移支付制度的作用和我国财政转移制度的主要形式、构成、特点,分析了其存在的缺陷,并提出了完善我国财政转移支付制度的一些建议。     

The Role of Survey Data in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth

This paper evaluates the impact of new releases of financial, real activity and survey data on nowcasting euro area gross domestic product (GDP). We show that all three data categories positively impact on the accuracy of GDP nowcasts, whereby the effect is largest in the case of real activity data. When treating variables as if they were all published at the same time and without any time lag, financial series lose all their significance, while survey data remain an important ingredient for the nowcasting exercise. The subsequent analysis shows that the sectoral coverage of survey data, which is broader than that of timely available real activity data, as well as their information content stemming from questions focusing on agents' expectations, are the main sources of the ‘genuine’ predictive power of survey data. When the forecast period is restricted to the 2008–09 financial crisis, the main change is an enhanced forecasting role for financial data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

美国与巴西金融体制的差异及成因探析

美国和巴西的金融体制在中央银行独立性、商业银行经营体制、非银行金融机构地位、金融监管手段、金融市场结构等方面都存在巨大差异,其原因在于两国金融发展的历史、经济市场化程度、国民金融观念、金融法律建设、金融基础设施等方面都不同.巴西应该努力发展社会经济,积极改革,逐步优化本国的金融体制.     

房地产金融制度与土地制度联动关系研究

房地产业的发展关系着国计民生,研究如何规范房地产市场具有重要意义.目前还未见到有综合研究土地制度和金融制度对中国房地产市场的影响.本文使用经济学“双缺口”模型解析我国房地产业市场目前的土地、金融两个领域制度创新的联动关系,在此基础上并给出了建设性的指导建议,认为缺乏土地市场制度创新相配合的房地产金融体制改革很大程度上天然是无效的.     

基于董事会治理因素的财务危机预警模型的构建

企业在经营过程中存在着越来越多的财务风险,为了防止这些风险演变为财务危机,及时进行财务危机预警分析,就需要理顺公司的治理结构,引入董事会治理因素来完善财务危机预警机制.以120家上市公司为研究对象,分别运用非参数检验、T检验以及主成分分析对财务变量和董事会治理变量进行筛选,进而运用Logistic回归分析构建预警模型.结果显示,未引入董事会治理变量的模型的预测正确率为92.5%,而引入董事会治理变量的模型预测正确率为94.15%,预警能力明显增强,也说明,董事会治理因素是影响公司财务危机的一个重要方面.