Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大惯性转台准确定位的自调整控制方法

对于大惯性转台的控制 ,提出了自调整控制算法 ,利用历史信息实现转台减速点的智能调整 ,给出了减速点计算公式 ,解决了大惯性转台快速运行与准确定位的矛盾 .利用Matlab对系统进行了建模仿真研究 ,得到了满意效果 ,证明了自调整算法的有效性 .     

高层体系结构系统实施技术的初步实践与进一步研究

为满足分布仿真系统对开放性，重用性，可扩展性与面向应用上的需求，基于HLA标准开发或改造已有的仿真系统已成为当今分布式仿真系统实施的一个热点，本文将分析，介绍一个HLA系统应用实施的典型案例，并基于作者的初步实践，进一步探讨基于HLA标准的分布式仿真系统的实施技术。     

多平台基于方位时延差的目标运动分析

以拖曳阵列与本舰所构成的声纳系统为例 ,从双平台观点考虑 ,利用对目标的两方位及时延的量测为依据 ,研究了该系统的目标运动分析 (targetmotionanalysis,TMA)问题。采用了最大似然估计、扩展Kalman滤波(EKF)方法 ,实现了对目标运动参数的估计 ,并给出了它们的Cramer Rao低界 (CRLB)。通过仿真考察了参数变化对估计精度的影响。仿真结果表明上述方法具有较高定位精度。该方法适合于主、被动形式的多平台系统 ,且容易实现。     

影响牦牛初生重因素的系统分析

分析了影响牦牛初生重的六个因素和众多因子，母牦牛的产犊季节、牦牛的胎次、犊牛的性别对牦牛初生重影响最大；母牛的年龄、营养情况对初生重影响次之；放牧管理水平对初生重影响最小。     

对模糊随机向量凸集的定义及探讨

在模糊随机变量的基础上引入了模糊随机向量凸集的概念,给出了几个模糊随机凸集的例子.     

工作分析是人力资源管理的基础

针对现代企业人力资源管理的特点，阐述了人本管理的核心理念、工作分析的目的和作用，提出了把握工作分析的六大要点。     

Using Oil Analysis to Study the Wear Condition of Bearing in Trunnion of Convertor During/After Run-in Period

1Introduction Convertorisoneofthemainequipmentofsteel making.Thebearingsinthetrunnionofconvertorarecharacterizedby low speed,heavy loadandhuge dimension.Theyrevolve slowlywhenmoltensteelisaddedoremptied.Theirlife expectancyis20years.Incasetheyexperiencefailurein operation,theoutputoftheconvertorandeventhatofthe wholeproductlinewouldbeaffectedandhugelosswouldbe resultedin.Therefore,itisveryimportanttomasterthe workingconditionsofthebearings.Vibrationandoilanalyses aretwomaintechniquestomonito…     

Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

在线固溶条件下的输出辊道受热分析

为满足300系列奥氏体不锈钢轧后在线目溶处理的要求，针对某厂已有设备条件，进行在线固溶处理输出辊道的改造，利用ANSYS有限元分析软件，通过对不同结构和材质条件下输出辊道的受热分析，为输出辊道的改造提供了理论依据。结果表明，将原有的铸铁辊道改为陶瓷辊道能够满足生产的要求。