基于区间数距离的区间组合预测模型

针对预测值为区间数形式,引入区间数距离,提出一种确定区间组合预测权系数的方法.给出两个区间序列的距离公式,以实际观测序列与组合预测序列的距离最小为准则,建立规划模型,求解得到权系数.最后,通过实例,证明模型能够有效提高预测的精度.     

组合优化策略的改进协同优化方法

为克服传统协同优化方法一致性约束造成的收敛困难和局部最优问题,提出将粒子群优化算法和修正可行方向法结合并引入协同优化.应用粒子群算法获得全局最优解近似,在此基础上应用修正可行方向法进行局部精确搜索.分别以一个典型的二次函数优化问题和一个减速器设计优化问题作为测试实例,优化结果表明,所提出组合优化策略是有效的,同时兼顾了优化效率和精度.     

非完全竞争的买方行为

将消费者行为理论推广到非完全竞争的买方行为。首先证明了预算映射和需求映射的连续性，并得到了需求集单值的条件；接着推广了数学规划的对偶性；最后证明了支付集的连续性和可微性。     

Rough sets bankruptcy prediction models versus auditor signalling rates

Both international and US auditing standards require auditors to evaluate the risk of bankruptcy when planning an audit and to modify their audit report if the bankruptcy risk remains high at the conclusion of the audit. Bankruptcy prediction is a problematic issue for auditors as the development of a cause–effect relationship between attributes that may cause or be related to bankruptcy and the actual occurrence of bankruptcy is difficult. Recent research indicates that auditors only signal bankruptcy in about 50% of the cases where companies subsequently declare bankruptcy. Rough sets theory is a new approach for dealing with the problem of apparent indiscernibility between objects in a set that has had a reported bankruptcy prediction accuracy ranging from 76% to 88% in two recent studies. These accuracy levels appear to be superior to auditor signalling rates, however, the two prior rough sets studies made no direct comparisons to auditor signalling rates and either employed small sample sizes or non‐current data. This study advances research in this area by comparing rough set prediction capability with actual auditor signalling rates for a large sample of United States companies from the 1991 to 1997 time period. Prior bankruptcy prediction research was carefully reviewed to identify 11 possible predictive factors which had both significant theoretical support and were present in multiple studies. These factors were expressed as variables and data for 11 variables was then obtained for 146 bankrupt United States public companies during the years 1991–1997. This sample was then matched in terms of size and industry to 145 non‐bankrupt companies from the same time period. The overall sample of 291 companies was divided into development and validation subsamples. Rough sets theory was then used to develop two different bankruptcy prediction models, each containing four variables from the 11 possible predictive variables. The rough sets theory based models achieved 61% and 68% classification accuracy on the validation sample using a progressive classification procedure involving three classification strategies. By comparison, auditors directly signalled going concern problems via opinion modifications for only 54% of the bankrupt companies. However, the auditor signalling rate for bankrupt companies increased to 66% when other opinion modifications related to going concern issues were included. In contrast with prior rough sets theory research which suggested that rough sets theory offered significant bankruptcy predictive improvements for auditors, the rough sets models developed in this research did not provide any significant comparative advantage with regard to prediction accuracy over the actual auditors' methodologies. The current research results should be fairly robust since this rough sets theory based research employed (1) a comparison of the rough sets model results to actual auditor decisions for the same companies, (2) recent data, (3) a relatively large sample size, (4) real world bankruptcy/non‐bankruptcy frequencies to develop the variable classifications, and (5) a wide range of industries and company sizes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于闭集的距离及分离性的讨论

章主要指出[1]中一种不确切的说法，并就R^D中闭集的距离及分离分有界和无界情形进行了讨论，同时给出了较直观的证明。     

双枝模糊集并-表现定理

建立了双枝模糊集并-表现定理,讨论了双枝模糊集的运算性质.结果表明：双枝模糊集表现定理是单枝模糊集表现定理的一般形式,单枝模糊集表现定理是双枝模糊集表现定理的特例.     

基于随机集证据推理的构件软件体系可靠性模型

将随机集证据推理应用于军事信息系统软件可靠性建模研究,采用其分析软构件故障过程,计算 软构件可靠性参数,并在此基础上构建了一个基于随机集证据推理-贝叶斯网络的军事信息系统软件可靠性模型.本模型实现了对构件软件体系全过程的可靠性跟踪和监控.仿真实验验证了该模型的实用性和有效性.本模型还可应用于对大型设备系统的故障诊断.     

参数族λ（e^2z＋e^z）的动力学

在Ｂａｋｅｒ,Ｄｅｖａｎｅｙ研究族ｅλｚ动力系统的基础上讨论族ｆλ（ｚ）＝λ（ｅ２ｚ＋ｅｚ）的动力学问题．     

新型软子格

将软集与格代数相结合,给出新型软子格的新概念,得到了它的等价刻画。另外,利用软集的交和与运算,得到了新型软子格的交和与运算也是新型软子格。     

模糊粗糙集分解定理的讨论（I）

分解定理是模糊数学的最基本定理之一,文章给出了模糊粗糙集的四个分解定理,并指出因偏序关系普通模糊集的部分分解定理并不能推广到模糊粗糙集.分解定理建立了模糊粗糙集与经典集间的联系,通过它可以把模糊粗糙集的某些性质的研究转化为相关的经典集的有关性质的研究,从而可以利用人们千百年来的研究成果和实践经验。