“810■”号登陆台风暴雨的诊断研究

本文在统计华南登陆台风暴雨的基础上,着重对8107号台风登陆后的强度变化及其暴雨过程进行了诊断研究.结果表明,华南登陆台风及其降水的强度变化主要取决于水汽输送条件的变化,Q_1、Q_2的变化则表明,积云对流及其潜热加热的反馈作用是登陆台风及其暴雨维持和加强的主要机制.     

三峡库区地形与暴雨的气候分析

以三峡库区为例，分析了峡谷地形对暴雨影响的气候特征。结果表明：峡谷地形对谷坡上部和下部暴雨都有很明显的增幅作用，但作用机制不同     

计算机研究闭环极点的方法

本文提出用电子计算机迅速、精确地研究闭环控制系统极点的方法,本方法适用于任意高阶系统.     

强平的Banach空间

定义了强平的Banach空间,证明了若X是强平的,则X的范数是粗的;若X具有KMP,则X不存在等价的强平范数。     

2005年运城市长连阴雨过程分析

在介绍运城市2005年秋季连阴雨雨情的基础上,对环流形势、影响系统、物理量特征、西太平洋副热带高压特征进行了分析,并提出了预报着眼点。     

Community Climate Model 3模拟夏季极端降水的初步分析

采用累积频率的统计方法和Community Climate Model 3(CCM3)模拟的10年逐日降水结果,分析了模拟的夏季极端降水事件的时空分布特征.结果表明,CCM3模拟的极端降水阈值的大值区主要在我国黄河和长江流域的上游、印度半岛及其邻近海域和孟加拉湾及其北部地区.CCM3能够模拟出我国长江流域极端降水量与极端降水日数显著增加的趋势.对极端降水平均强度、降水日数以及极端降水量与总降水量比值的经验正交函数(EOF)分析可知,我国大部分地区的极端降水基本呈现同相变化,且以长江和黄河中游地区较为显著.CCM3模式基本能够模拟出观测到的极端降水阈值与总降水、极端降水日数及其距平的高空间相关性.     

钢框架节点局部断裂冲击作用实验研究

对钢框架节点在强烈地震或极端荷载情况下因突然断裂引起的冲击作用进行了研究．讨论了断裂冲击值与断裂位置内力释放值的对应关系，通过单质点模型分析了冲击反应的量值范围，考察了冲击反应峰值与冲击作用时间和断裂发生后体系自振周期之比的关系．设计并实施了钢材单轴断裂和模型框架节点断裂两种实验，验证了采用具有高频采样能力的测试设备准确测取断裂过程中结构反应的可行性，揭示了节点瞬间断裂仍然包含渐进性和局部性两项特点．对节点瞬间断裂引起的冲击反应进行了初步的数值评估．     

Validation of three infiltration models on purple soil under simulated rainfall

So as to find models suitable for the prediction of water infiltration in purple soil,infiltration rates simulated by three popular empirical infiltration models,Horton model,Kostiakov model,and the modified Kostiakov model,were compared by using those observed results on slope in purple soil under rainfall simulation.28 sets of infiltration data were divided into two parts for parameter estimation and validation independently.The performance of the three infiltration models was evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency criterion.The results show that the percent for Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.7 is about 69.7% for the Horton model,and 48.48%,and 54.55% for the Kostiakov model and the modified Kostiakov model,respectively.Horton model is better than Kostiakov model and the modified Kostiakov model in most rain events in the field.However,Kostiakov model is still suitable for reasonable prediction of the infiltration in purple soil sloping farmland because fewer parameters are needed.Furthermore,rainfall intensity has significant effects on the parameter values used in the simulation models.The simulation results can be improved by choosing suitable parameters according to the rainfall intensity.     

Forecasting Hourly Peak Call Volume for a Rural Electric Cooperative Call Center

This research forecasts peak call volume of a centralized after‐hours call center for rural electric cooperatives to help the call center determine staffing levels. A Gaussian copula is used to capture the dependence among non‐normal distributions. Using a centralized call center reduces costs by approximately 75% compared to having individual call centers at each cooperative. Adding cooperatives to the centralized call center is projected to further decrease costs per member. An out‐of‐sample forecasting exercise after the call center expanded validated the model's forecast that additional cooperatives could be added without a proportional increase in the peak number of calls. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅析某海参保苗大棚坍塌的原因

现阶段因土体滑坡造成的安全事故越来越多,如何分析其产生的原因,明确责任成为一个比较棘手的问题。本文通过一个案例对土体滑坡的原因进行了简单的分析,为今后土体滑坡的事故分析提供一定的借鉴。