The performance of non‐linear exchange rate models: a forecasting comparison

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non‐linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$). The relative performance of non‐linear models of the SETAR, STAR and GARCH types is contrasted with their linear counterparts. The results show that if attention is restricted to mean square forecast errors, the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favour the linear models. The forecast performance of the models is evaluated also conditional on the regime at the forecast origin and on density forecasts. This analysis produces more evidence of forecasting gains from non‐linear models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

温度对荒漠沙蜥在体心脏单相动作电位的影响

采用吸附式电极记录了荒漠沙蜥在不同体温条件下 ,在体心脏的单相动作电位 (MAP:Monophasic Action Potential) .实验温度为 :5℃ ,10℃ ,15℃ ,2 0℃ ,2 5℃ ,30℃和 35℃ 7个温度等级 .结果表明 :(1)在最适温度 (2 0～ 2 5℃ )时 ,荒漠沙蜥心脏单相动作电位的基本波形与高等动物及人类基本相似 ;但也有其特殊性 :动作电位 0期除极期最大幅值为 11.4 2± 2 .5 8m V;复极 2期电位幅值基本保持恒定 ,呈平台期 (PP2 :Plateau Phase2 ) ;在复极 3期末 ,电位基本恢复到 0电位(膜电位为 0 m V) .(2 )随着体温的升高 (5～ 35℃ ) ,荒漠沙蜥心脏单相动作电位时程呈温度依赖性减小 ;0期最大除极速度 (Vmax)呈温度依赖性增加 (5℃为 77.0 8± 4 7.11m V/ms;35℃为 614.63±10 5 . 0 2 m V/ms) ;低于最适温度时 (2 0～ 2 5℃ ) ,在 2相平台期末 ,又出现一次除极电位 (后隆起波 ) .其最大电位为 0 .5 8± 0 .18m V.(3)随着体温的升高 ,荒漠沙蜥心脏单相动作电位复极 1期电位呈温度依赖性降低 (5℃为 2 .2 4± 1.31m V/ms;35℃为 0 .82± 0 .4 9m V/ms) .(4 )心电图 (ECG)的同步记录表明 :心电图中的 QRS波与心脏单相动作电位 0期除极完全相对应 ;T波与动作电位的复极 3期相对应 .     

提高石油化工企业原料利用率的技术研究

坚持眼睛向内,挖潜增效,这是当前原油变重、供应量不足,生产资料涨价的客观形势下走出困境、提高企业效益的主要途径之一,本文从拓宽催化回炼油的利用途径,催化和加氢裂化互换循环油加工,优化重油原料的安排,提高轻油头的化肥效益,挤出烷基化原料,开发异丁烷的化工用途及油化结合等方面,分析通过厂际装置间的原料互供、生产优化来挖掘企业内涵,提高经济效益.     

侧析我国的学术环境——对诺贝尔奖困惑的反思

诺贝尔自然科学奖是比较公正的,但政治对科学发展的影响又是现实的。我国之所以未曾问津诺贝尔自然科学奖,在很大程度上是由于政治环境影响了基础研究的学术自由和学术交流。     

关于实践在人类社会形成和发展作用的再思考

实践使自然世界分化出人化世界，实践是人类社会形成的基础。而且实践又是构成人类社会发展的动力，实践的这个作用一直被低估。本文着重就实践在人类社会形成和构成人类社会发展的动力方面，进行再思考和分析。     

也谈“用惠斯通电桥测电阻”实验

本文主要对杨介信、陈国英编写《普通物理实验(二、电磁学部分)》“用惠斯通电桥测电阻”实验中δR_(x0)=(R_4/R_3)δR_2的含意等五个问题,提出自己的不同看法。     

上海市集成电路及机电一体化产品的比较优势研究

本文用一种“节汇成本比较”的方法,对上海市集成电路及机电一体化产品的比较优势进行调查研究,提出了上海市在这两个产品领域发展重点的建议。     

Influence of bistramide A on the twitch tension in rat atrial heart muscle

Bistramide A, a new toxin isolated from the UrochordateLissoclinum bistratum Sluiter, was applied to rat auricular heart muscle bundles. At a stimulation frequency of 0.2 Hz, the toxin induces a dose-dependent reduction of the stimulated twitch tension force; it decreases and shortens the duration of the plateau and the slow repolarizing phase of the action potential. In the control solution, switching from a stimulation frequency of 0.2 Hz to 1 Hz decreases the force with which a positive potentiation develops either at a maintained high frequency or after switching from 1 Hz to 0.2 Hz. Bistramide A reduces both the force evoked at 1 Hz and the potentiation. The data suggest that Bistramide A blocks Na⁺ conductance; inhibits Ca⁺⁺ channels in a time-and frequency-dependent manner; reduces Na⁺–Ca⁺⁺ exchange activity; but does not modify the ability of the sarcoplasmic reticulum to be refilled although the rate of Ca⁺⁺ accumulation is decreased.     

Sea water intrusion and salt water intrusion in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay

The characteristics, pattern, hydrodynamic and hydrochemical features, and the movement pattern of the salt waterfresh water interface of the sea water intrusion and the salt water intrusion, which occur in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province, are analysed. The characteristics of the two kinds of intrusion are compared as well. A three-dimensional sea water intrusion model to describe the sea water intrusion with a transitional zone 1.5–6.0 km wide in the phreatic aquifer and a solute transport model describing the behavior of cations exchange in the process of sea water intrusion are established.     

阳离子交换树脂催化合成1—萘乙酸甲酯的研究

本文研究了用强酸性阳离子交换树脂作催化剂,１—萘乙酸和甲醇直接酯化合成１—萘乙酸甲酯的反应。考察了催化剂用量,反应物料配比,反应时间等因素对产率的影响,通过正交实验,找到了较佳反应条件：当催化剂用量为反应液的３％,醇酸摩尔比为２０～３０,在回流温度下反应４小时,酯的收率＞９２％,纯度＞９９％。该法工艺简单,操作方便,无三废污染,适合工业化生产。