Forward Rates,Monetary Policy and the Economic Cycle

The short end of the yield curve incorporates essential information to forecast central banks' decisions, but in a biased manner. This article proposes a new method to forecast the Fed and the European Central Bank's decision rate by correcting the swap rates for their cyclical economic premium, using an affine term structure model. The corrected yields offer a higher out‐of‐sample forecasting power than the yields themselves. They also deliver forecasts that are either comparable or better than those obtained with a factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model, underlining the fact that yields are likely to contain at least as much information regarding monetary policy as a dataset composed of economic data series. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

创业投资辛迪加网络中控制权的演化博弈分析

创业投资的高风险性和信息不对称性使创业投资中控制权分配问题逐渐成为关系到风险投资项目成败的关键。本文运用演化博弈方法,分析控制权在辛迪加网络中两类创业投资家之间分配的博弈过程,得出在不同控制权分配比例下相应的演化稳定策略。在此结果上表明即期博弈中,创业投资家的私人收益和项目产出分配值的对比关系与控制权的分配密切相关。     

敦煌莫高窟蒸散量的估算与非线性分析

通过应用野外称重法测定的折算系数对莫高窟林地的蒸散量进行估算与分析。结果表明,莫高窟林地的年蒸散量为6091mm,符合耗散结构的非线性原理,是较高水平蒸散耗散结构存在的表现。莫高窟林地75%的水分是通过植物根系将深层土壤水分转运出地面后以蒸腾的形式耗散掉的。蒸散量作为各参与因子时空异质性的综合反映,随着土壤水分状况、气候环境、植被种类和植物体量的变化呈现广泛非线性表现。而非线性系统不满足线性叠加原理。因此,本文通过使用折算系数,避免了用蒸发量和蒸腾量的简单的相互叠加,充分考虑了土壤蒸发、植被蒸腾和气候环境之间的相互影响。研究发现,莫高窟林地蒸散量是极干旱气候条件下高水分耗散结构的典型代表。     

基于博弈论的开放环境下场景规约监控语义

在开放环境中,环境和系统本身行为的改变可能使得软件系统的实现不再满足原来规约,从而最终导致软件失效的发生.运行时监控是一种轻量级的形式化动态验证技术,已成为开放环境下检测软件失效的基本手段.针对基于场景的规约属性序列图,从博弈论的角度定义其多值监控语义:满足、无限可控、系统有限可控、系统紧急可控、环境有限可控、环境紧急可控和违例.通过多值监控语义的定义,监控器能够根据当前轨迹尽可能早地检测到系统失效或异常,并提供足够信息为失效的预防和恢复服务.实例研究表明了属性序列图多值监控语义的实用价值,并显示了其广泛的应用前景.     

The saws of sawflies: exploring the morphology of the ovipositor in Tenthredinoidea (Insecta: Hymenoptera), with emphasis on Nematinae

The variation in ovipositor sculpture and additional features of the ovipositor apparatus in Tenthredinoidea is explored. Two outgroups and 85 species of tenthredinoids were examined, the emphasis of the taxon sampling being on Nematinae. Twenty-four morphological characters where scored and the data set was analysed under different weighting conditions. The topologies derived from analysing the character set in TNT are poorly resolved and highly unstable when analytical settings are changed. Only a few clades, the Tenthredinoidea s. str., the Diprionidae, the Cimbicidae and the Argidae + Pergidae are consistently retrieved. The functional implications of the variation in ovipositor morphology within Tenthredinidae is discussed in relation to the qualities of the host plant, e.g. the hardness and the depth of penetration in plant tissue.     

Predatory behaviour in Deltochilum: convergent evolution or a primitive character within a clade?

We present data on predatory behaviour in Deltochilum cupreicolle viridescens, which belongs to the subgenus Aganhyboma, and we contrast it with the behaviour of a species from the subgenus Deltohyboma. By this comparison we can investigate whether the predatory behaviour in Deltochilum could have appeared independently in these two subgenera, or if the behaviour is so similar that it suggests a single origin in a possible ancestor exclusive to those two groups. These laboratory studies on the behaviour of Deltochilum c. viridescens individuals on diplopods are described and divided into the following stages: (1) approach and recognition of the diplopod; (2) attack and death of the prey; (3) on-site feeding; (4) transport of the diplopod. The results found here strengthen the hypothesis of a primitive and highly specialized behaviour within a possible clade formed by the predatory species of Diplopoda.     

XML Schema派生和重用机制

针对XML schema不能直接转换为关系模式,笔者设计了结构字典存贮结构信息和约束信息,利用贪心算法实现了机制映射为关系模式.实验结果表明：结构字典和算法对重构XML文档提供了有力支持.     

基于结点关系结构的三维拓扑数据模型

结点关系结构是一种可有效地简化三维空间实体间复杂关系的拓扑结构。通过二元性转换,将三维空间中实体及其间关系转换成点与边的简单二元关系,并将其所有的拓扑属性保留下来。首先介绍了结点关系结构的二元性、图论及层次数据结构,在此基础上详述了结点关系结构的两种数据模型,最后讨论了结点关系结构的应用。     

激光作用生成的网孔硅结构

作者结合量子受限效应,提出纳硅晶与氧化硅界面态发光模型来解释激光作用生成的纳米网孔壁结构的强荧光效应。将功率为50W、波长为1064nm的YAG激光束(束斑直径0.05mm)照射在硅样品表面打出小孔,在孔内的侧壁上,有很特殊的网孔形结构,其中的网孔壁厚为纳米尺度,这里有很强的受激荧光发光效应,发光峰中心约在700nm处。我们将激光与硅样品的作用隔离于无氧化的环境里,分别比较了将硅样品浸入酒精、氢氟酸和水中的激光加工结果,其发光情况证实了该发光模型的真实性。优化激光加工的条件,我们获得了较强发光的样品。