VB6.0下利用PC机串口实现导弹整流罩壁厚的测量

为实现导弹整流罩壁厚的测量,介绍了在VB6．0环境下发挥PC机RS-232串口的作用,使用串行通讯控件MSCornm构成数据采集时间间隔为0．1秒的测量控制系统,介绍了控制系统软件中一些关键环节的处理过程。     

Countering medical nihilism by reconnecting facts and values

A pessimistic strain of thought is fomenting in the health studies literature regarding the status of medicine. Ioannidis’s (2005) now famous finding that “most published research findings are false” and Stegenga’s (2018) book-length argument for medical nihilism are examples of this. In this paper, we argue that these positions are incorrect insofar as they rest on an untenable account of the nature of facts. Proper attention to fallibilism and the social organization of knowledge, as well as Bayesian probabilities in medical reasoning, prompt us to ask why the cynics expect the results of quantitative studies to be incontrovertibly true in the first place. While we agree with Ioannidis and others’ identified flaws in the medical research enterprise, and encourage rectification, we conclude that medical nihilism is not the natural outcome of the current state of research.     

Epistemic benefits of the material theory of induction

C. D. Broad famously labelled the problem of providing our inductive practices with a proper justification “the scandal of philosophy” (Broad, 1952). Recently, John Norton has provided a dissolution of this problem (2014). According to Norton, inductive inference is grounded in particular facts obtaining within particular domains (J. Norton, 2003b, 2010, 2014). Because the material theory does not involve a universal schema of induction, Norton claims it dissolves the problem of induction (which implies that such universal schemas cannot be justified).In this paper, I critically evaluate Norton's dissolution. In particular, I argue that the problem of induction is an epistemological problem, that Norton's material theory entails an externalist epistemology, and that it is a common feature of such epistemologies that they dissolve the problem of induction. The upshot is that the material theory is not unique in its ability to reap the specifically epistemic benefits of dissolving the problem of induction, and thus that the epistemic advantages of the material theory over extant alternatives in this regard are fewer than it may appear at first sight.     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

A structural interpretation of measurement and some related epistemological issues

Measurement is widely applied because its results are assumed to be more reliable than opinions and guesses, but this reliability is sometimes justified in a stereotyped way. After a critical analysis of such stereotypes, a structural characterization of measurement is proposed, as partly empirical and partly theoretical process, by showing that it is in fact the structure of the process that guarantees the reliability of its results. On this basis the role and the structure of background knowledge in measurement and the justification of the conditions of object-relatedness (“objectivity”) and subject-independence (“intersubjectivity”) of measurement are specifically discussed.     

Analysts’ Dynamic Decisions: Timeliness versus Accuracy

For analysts there is a tradeoff between the accuracy and the timeliness of their forecasts. Prior literature heavily investigates analyst forecast accuracy. Few papers investigate the importance of timeliness. To our best knowledge, there are no empirical papers to date to investigate the dynamic interplay between these key characteristics. We show that if analysts experience a period of high accuracy relative to their peers, they subsequently focus more on the timeliness of their forecasts in the subsequent period and thus issue their forecasts earlier than they did in the prior period. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多通信接口的M_BUS数据集中器的硬件设计与实现

详细介绍了一种多通信接口的M_bus数据集中器的硬件设计.使用嵌入式主控芯片LPC2387,实现了数据集中和处理,集成在系统中的Profibus总线接口、RS232异步串行口、CAN总线接口、以太网接口使得数据可以在多种总线上进行传输.测试结果表明,该系统的通用性强,稳定性好,数据传输的可靠性高.     

Global view of Hopf bifurcations of a van der Pol oscillator with delayed state feedback

This paper presents both analytical and numerical studies on the global view of Hopf bifurcations of a van der Pol oscillator with delayed state feedback. Based on a detailed analysis of the stability switches of the trivial equilibrium of the system, the stability charts are given in a parameter space consisting of the time delay and the feedback gains. The center manifold reduction and the normal form method are used to study Hopf bifurcations with respect to the time delay. To gain an insight into the pe...     

Can the behavioral sciences self-correct? A social epistemic study

Advocates of the self-corrective thesis argue that scientific method will refute false theories and find closer approximations to the truth in the long run. I discuss a contemporary interpretation of this thesis in terms of frequentist statistics in the context of the behavioral sciences. First, I identify experimental replications and systematic aggregation of evidence (meta-analysis) as the self-corrective mechanism. Then, I present a computer simulation study of scientific communities that implement this mechanism to argue that frequentist statistics may converge upon a correct estimate or not depending on the social structure of the community that uses it. Based on this study, I argue that methodological explanations of the “replicability crisis” in psychology are limited and propose an alternative explanation in terms of biases. Finally, I conclude suggesting that scientific self-correction should be understood as an interaction effect between inference methods and social structures.     

Is biotechnology the new alchemy?

In this article I examine similarities between the science and ethics of biotechnology on the one hand, and those of alchemy on the other, and show that the understanding of nature and naturalness upon which many contemporary ethical responses to biotechnology are predicated is, in fact, significantly similar to the understanding of nature that was the foundation of the practice of alchemy. In doing so I demonstrate that the ethical issues and social responses that are currently arising from advances in the field of biotechnology are interestingly similar to those that arose in reaction to the practice and prevalence of alchemy from its inception in Europe in the mid-twelfth century until at least the early modern period. I argue that a proper conception of the ethical issues and a sensible interpretation of the power and the promise of the science of biotechnology are most likely if we understand such attitudes to nature, and to the ethical issues surrounding technological and scientific developments, in terms of an historical and cultural continuum. That is, we should regard biotechnology as merely the latest in a string of technological and scientific developments rather than, as is often alleged, as something entirely new, requiring its own special ethical response. Finally, I suggest that examining the parallels between the ethical issues generated by alchemy and by biotechnology show us that such issues are best situated and discussed within a framework of virtue ethics, as it allows us to think seriously about the relationship between art and nature and the proper role of humans in relation to their technology.