西北太平洋柔鱼资源丰度时空分布的GAM模型分析

根据1996~2001年我国在西北太平洋海域柔鱼生产统计及相关数据,利用GAM模型分析了表温、月份、经纬度等因子对柔鱼资源丰度CPUE的影响.研究认为,经纬度、月份和表温对CPUE时空分布都有较大的影响.160°E以西海域CPUE高,而165°E以东海域低,并主要集中在40°N~43°N海域.8~10月CPUE为最大.不同海域柔鱼分布的适宜表温不相同,150°E以西海域为13~18℃,150°E~165°E海域为14~18℃,165°E~180°E海域为11~14℃.     

Incorporating textual and management factors into financial distress prediction: A comparative study of machine learning methods

Financial distress prediction (FDP) has been widely considered as a promising approach to reducing financial losses. While financial information comprises the traditional factors involved in FDP, nonfinancial factors have also been examined in recent studies. In light of this, the purpose of this study is to explore the integrated factors and multiple models that can improve the predictive performance of FDP models. This study proposes an FDP framework to reveal the financial distress features of listed Chinese companies, incorporating financial, management, and textual factors, and evaluating the prediction performance of multiple models in different time spans. To develop this framework, this study employs the wrapper-based feature selection method to extract valuable features, and then constructs multiple single classifiers, ensemble classifiers, and deep learning models in order to predict financial distress. The experiment results indicate that management and textual factors can supplement traditional financial factors in FDP, especially textual ones. This study also discovers that integrated factors collected 4 years prior to the predicted benchmark year enable a more accurate prediction, and the ensemble classifiers and deep learning models developed can achieve satisfactory FDP performance. This study makes a novel contribution as it expands the predictive factors of financial distress and provides new findings that can have important implications for providing early warning signals of financial risk.     

玛南斜坡下乌尔禾组砾岩储层特征及主控因素

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷南斜坡二叠系下乌尔禾组具有良好的勘探前景,为明确该区储层特征及主控因素,通过岩芯观察、铸体薄片、扫描电镜及储层物性等手段,对二叠系下乌尔禾组砾岩储层特征及主控因素进行了研究.结果表明,下乌尔禾组储层岩石类型主要为岩屑砂岩,胶结类型以泥质、沸石胶结为主,结构及成分成熟度较低.储层储集空间类型多样,以剩余...     

Making the abstract concrete: The role of norms and values in experimental modeling

Experimental modeling is the construction of theoretical models hand in hand with experimental activity. As explained in Section 1, experimental modeling starts with claims about phenomena that use abstract concepts, concepts whose conditions of realization are not yet specified; and it ends with a concrete model of the phenomenon, a model that can be tested against data. This paper argues that this process from abstract concepts to concrete models involves judgments of relevance, which are irreducibly normative. In Section 2, we show, on the basis of several case studies, how these judgments contribute to the determination of the conditions of realization of the abstract concepts and, at the same time, of the quantities that characterize the phenomenon under study. Then, in Section 3, we compare this view on modeling with other approaches that also have acknowledged the role of relevance judgments in science. To conclude, in Section 4, we discuss the possibility of a plurality of relevance judgments and introduce a distinction between locally and generally relevant factors.     

三家子矿6-2煤层瓦斯地质规律研究

通过对南票三家子煤矿瓦斯地质资料的分析,并结合煤层瓦斯含量的现场测定和实验室测试,探讨了断层、构造凹地、煤层围岩、含煤岩系沉积环境以及岩浆侵入等地质因素对6-2煤层瓦斯赋存、分布的影响;夯析了各因素与瓦斯含量的关系,即断层、岩浆侵入破坏了煤体的结构,构造凹地引起的压性应力导致6-2煤层区域性渗透率下降,这些因素对瓦斯的逸散均起了阻碍的作用,因此是影响瓦斯赋存的主控因素。绘制出瓦斯含量等值线图,进而为采掘布置和瓦斯防治工作提供了理论依据。     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

长江上游铜锣峡河段卵砾石推移质输沙规律研究

西部山区河段具有水面比降大、河床推移质粒径粗、糙率较大等特点,因此西部山区河段的水沙特性与平原河流差异明显,采用现有的推移质输沙公式来预测山区河段的泥沙输移情况存在较大误差。针对这一现象,基于爱因斯坦均匀沙无量纲输沙公式,考虑到推移质周围床沙对其遮蔽影响,以V/Uc=1为推移质起动临界状态建立了输沙率计算公式,最后以长江上游铜锣峡河段为研究对象,根据近二十年实测的水沙数据,将新计算式与多个经典公式进行精度比较,从计算结果来看,在预测大比降卵砾石山区河流时,新建立的计算式计算精度更高,能更好的反映其输沙规律。     

Functions and pathologies of BiP and its interaction partners

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is involved in a variety of essential and interconnected processes in human cells, including protein biogenesis, signal transduction, and calcium homeostasis. The central player in all these processes is the ER-lumenal polypeptide chain binding protein BiP that acts as a molecular chaperone. BiP belongs to the heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) family and crucially depends on a number of interaction partners, including co-chaperones, nucleotide exchange factors, and signaling molecules. In the course of the last five years, several diseases have been linked to BiP and its interaction partners, such as a group of infectious diseases that are caused by Shigella toxin producing E. coli. Furthermore, the inherited diseases Marinesco-Sj?gren syndrome, autosomal dominant polycystic liver disease, Wolcott-Rallison syndrome, and several cancer types can be considered BiP-related diseases. This review summarizes the physiological and pathophysiological characteristics of BiP and its interaction partners. Received 20 November 2008; received after revision 09 December 2008; accepted 12 December 2008     

实物期权视角的CAPM有效性检验

实物期权对资产定价的非线性影响会导致本质为线性定价的CAPM模型失效.本文以沪深A股2000-2014年间1503家上市公司为样本,利用市值规模、账面市值比、资本支出和总资产回报四个企业特征变量作为实物期权的代理变量,分别对个股贝塔和预期超额收益率进行实物期权调整,给出了经实物期权调整后CAPM有效的证据;而且,较之市值规模和账面市值比,资本支出和总资产回报更加能够反映实物期权对CAPM有效性的影响.此外,实物期权调整对CAPM有效性的影响对处于生命周期早期阶段的企业、高科技行业以及对股权分置改革和次贷危机后的子样本更为明显.