Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

城市可持续发展水平的指标体系及评价

从经济、环境、资源、社会发展和人口5个方面构建了评价城市可持续发展水平的指标体系.由于涉及到众多的指标,选择因子分析法通过降维处理,能使较多原始指标被综合为几个较少指标.实例证明,指标的选取、方法的选择都比较合理.     

“回归直线法”在公司理财中的应用研究

介绍了回归直线法的由来,给出了相关性检验的两种方法:相关系数法和方差分析法,在此基础上,又给出了误差估计的3种简单方法:最大误差法、平均误差法和标准差法,使“回归直线法”在公司理财中的广泛应用,不仅具有可操作性,同时更具有可靠性.     

Time‐simultaneous prediction band for a time series

I propose principles and methods for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series. The methods are entirely based on a learning sample of time trajectories, and make no parametric assumption about its distribution. Hence, the methods are general and widely applicable. The expected coverage probability of a band can be estimated by a bootstrap procedure. The estimate is likely to be less than the nominal level. Expected lack of coverage can be compensated for by increasing the coverage in the learning sample. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2000－2006年我国登山运动中山难死亡事故的发生原因调查分析

本文试着透过基础的山难资料，归纳出近年来山难发生原因的基础研究。本文运用文献资料法、数据统计法等研究方法对2000—2006年我国登山运动中山难事故发生原因进行了系统的研究。     

Weight measurement using image-based pose analysis

Image-based gait analysis as a means of biometric identification has attracted much research attention. Most of the existing methods focus on human identification, posture analysis and movement tracking. There have been few investigations on measuring the carried load based on the carrier＇s gait characteristics by automatic image processing. Nevertheless, this measurement is very useful in a number of applications, such as the study of the carried load on the postural development of children and adolescence. In this paper, we investigate how to automatically estimate the carried weight from a sequence of images. We present a method to extract human gait silhouette based on an observation that humans tend to minimize the energy during motion. We compute several angles of body leaning and determine the relationship of the carried weight, the leaning angles and the centroid location according to a human kinetic study. Our weight determination method has been verified successfully by experiments.     

用对应分析法研究影响城市园林绿化的因素

利用Spss12．0软件，对1999年全国各地区城市园林绿化的统计数据进行了对应分析。通过对应分析图，可以很直观地看出影响城市园林绿化的主要因素，进而通过数据分析可以很清楚地看出城市园林绿化程度的高低直接影响游客的数量，这样就可以为各地区制定发展计划提供一定的参考。     

关于可对称化矩阵的Weyl-Лидский型定理

建立了可对称化矩阵情形下的型定理和与近似不变子空间相关的特征值扰动分析.拓广了W Kahan的相应结果.     

Decision Support Systems (DSS) development using a model of user inquiry types: Methodological proposals and a case study

A study of the DSS implementation area reveals an increased emphasis on methodologies for DSS development. As the DSS field matures, a larger number of methodological options are becoming available to the DSS developer. Existing methodologies have adopted various methods for performing the important task of DSS requirements analysis and specification. In envisaging a hierarchy of requirements analysis methods, a method for improved requirements analysis is proposed to remedy observed deficiencies within it. This method is based on a view of generic types of inquiries or solicitations made by the DSS user during decision-making. This formalism constitutes the basis of a proposed DSS development methodology that offers several benefits to DSS development. The intended benefits include a sharper and more focused requirements analysis to improve the DSS development process. This paper describes the model and methodology, alongside details of a real-world example of their use in developing a Marketing Decision Support System (MKDSS) for the support of marketing decision-making.