Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Prior Sensitivity Analysis

In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model‐averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner's g prior. The main results are fourfold. First, the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally employed ‘marginal’ likelihood in settings where the true model is not part of the model space. Secondly, forecast accuracy as measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) is maximized for the median probability model. On the other hand, model averaging excels in predicting direction of changes. Lastly, g should be set according to Laud and Ibrahim (1995: Predictive model selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57 : 247–262) with a hold‐out sample size of 25% to minimize the RMSE (median model) and 75% to optimize direction of change forecasts (model averaging). We finally apply the aforementioned recommendations to forecast the monthly industrial production output of six countries, beating for almost all countries the AR(1) benchmark model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indirect and direct acoustic aggression in cicadas: first observations in the Palaearctic genus Tibicina Amyot (Hemiptera: Cicadomorpha: Cicadidae)

Tibicina Amyot is a cicada genus of the Palaearctic biogeographical region with seven taxa (species and subspecies) distributed in France. As in other cicadas, the sound production by tymbal vibration is restricted to males. In Tibicina, males are attracted by conspecific calling songs and tend to form groups of several individuals which maintain a minimal distance between each other. Observations based upon male–male interactions in such aggregations and on some preliminary experiments conducted with males kept in captivity revealed for the first time both indirect and direct aggression. Spacing and chorusing are interpreted as a by-product of indirect aggression mediated through the calling song. Direct aggression occurred when spacing is not respected. It is achieved through a ritualistic sequence that involves mainly the production of the rivalry song, an acoustic signal previously reported in the literature for two cicada species only. In addition, satellite males and male–male courting are reported. These preliminary results suggest that the sound social organization in the genus Tibicina is more elaborate than first suspected and should be reconsidered in terms of lek behaviour and sexual selection.     

税控收款机Flash文件系统的设计与实现

针对税控收款机设计了一种Flash文件系统,通过Flash空间分配实现方式优化、断电保护和空间回收等关键技术,并结合嵌入式数据库设计思想,向用户提供方便可靠的数据导入导出及日常检索功能,从而为税控收款机的推广提供了系统软件支持。     

UCLINUX下自主移动机器人运动系统设计

设计了在嵌入式操作系统UCLINUX下的自主移动机器人运动系统。该系统主控制器采用了ARM7微处理器,操作系统使用UCLINUX,利用脉冲宽度调制(PWM)技术对直流电机转速进行控制。详细介绍了UCLINUX下电机控制器的设备驱动程序设计和移动机器人基本动作的应用程序设计。该系统已经应用于一个移动机器人原型中,能够成功地实现各种动作。     

嵌入式系统有限资源下的代码移植和优化

给出一种基于ADI Blackfin系列数字信号处理器的人像考勤系统设计方案. 在此基础上, 归纳了嵌入式有限资源限制下人像识别算法的实现策略,解决了算法移植过程中从C++到C的转换问题, 并提出了通过修改连接描述文件重新配置存储资源的方法, 从而缓解了大数据量与芯片上有限存储资源之间的矛盾. 测试结果表明, 移植后人像识别算法的运行结果和速度都满足使用要求.     

连续/离散混合型制造系统的生产过程虚拟仿真建模

离散事件仿真建模被广泛应用于制造系统的设计及运行控制,但是很多制造系统兼有离散系统和连续系统的特点。提出一种将离散事件与连续系统结合起来的仿真建模方法,以支持动态展现这类制造系统的生产过程。该方法的主要思想是,主机内部的机构运动主要采用连续系统进行仿真建模,而主机之间的加工顺序则利用离散系统来构建其仿真模型,然后由统一的仿真管理器管理。论文详细描述了虚拟仿真引擎中的仿真时钟推动机制,并用这一方法建立了面向啤酒灌装生产线生产过程的虚拟仿真模型,说明了这一方法的可行性。     

公司层次信息技术投资生产率的实证研究

随着公司将大量资金投入信息技术,研究人员和企业界对于信息技术投资价值问题给予越来越多的关注.研究表明,信息技术投资并未导致公司绩效的提高,存在所谓的信息技术投资"生产率悖论"问题.利用中国上市公司的公开数据,研究了信息技术投入对公司主营收入和净利润等产出的贡献;搜集了200多家上市公司的财务数据,时间从1999～2004年;建立了三要素的经典生产函数,利用广义最小二乘法对回归方程进行估计.结果表明:公司的信息技术投资,对主营收入、净利润等绩效指标具有积极的影响.信息技术投资是一种生产性投资,对产出具有积极的贡献.     

Cardiolipin, the heart of mitochondrial metabolism

Cardiolipin is a unique phospholipid, which is almost exclusively localized in the mitochondrial inner membrane where it is synthesized from phosphatidylglycerol and cytidinediphosphate-diacylglycerol. After primary synthesis, the mature acyl chain composition of cardiolipin is achieved by at least two remodeling mechanisms. In the mitochondrial membrane cardiolipin plays an important role in energy metabolism, mainly by providing stability for the individual enzymes and enzyme complexes involved in energy production. Moreover, cardiolipin is involved in different stages of the mitochondrial apoptotic process and in mitochondrial membrane dynamics. Cardiolipin alterations have been described in various pathological conditions. Patients suffering from Barth syndrome have an altered cardiolipin homeostasis caused by a primary deficiency in cardiolipin remodeling. Alterations in cardiolipin content or composition have also been reported in more frequent diseases such as diabetes and heart failure. In this review we provide an overview of cardiolipin metabolism, function and its role in different pathological states. Received 16 January 2008; received after revision 26 February 2008; accepted 26 March 2008     

对MRP模型改进的研究

通过把ＭＲＰ模型与实际的生产过程进行比较和分析,指出了传统的ＭＲＰ模型的不足之处,提出了改进的ＭＲＰ理论模型．     

极端嗜热微生物分子伴侣蛋白研究与嗜热功能蛋白质的规模化制备技术研究

极端微生物是丰富的资源宝库,有着巨大的生物技术开发前景。本文从特殊功能蛋白质的发现与表征、结构与功能及潜在性应用．以及特殊功能蛋白质的规模化制备技术两个方面,对极端微生物的资源开发与利用进行了探讨。重点介绍了极端嗜热古菌Pyrococcus furiosus分子伴侣蛋白系统的一些研究,并以P．furiosus胞外α-淀粉酶PFA为例,对工业生物技术领域重组蛋白质的规模化制备技术进行了讨论。