双参数随机Sierpinski垫的相位曲线

引入双参数随机置换，考虑了具有参数ｐ，ｑ的随机Ｓｉｅｒｐｉｎｓｋｉ垫的各种形态的相位，讨论了ｐ，ｑ跨跃某些相位曲线时，其构成形态的变化情形，它包括了ｑ＝０的Ｓｉｅｒｐｉｎｓｋｉ垫和ｑ＝ｐ的Ｍａｎｄｅｌｂｒｏｔ渗流模型。     

Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种测试圆度的新算法

轴承的外圆环、内圆环是否圆以及圆的程度如何,都会对使用轴承的机械设备产生很大的影响,但是它们是否圆,靠肉眼是很难观察出来的,我们只能用仪器进行测量,假设仪器测量的结果是准确的或者误差是确定的,由于算法不合理,可能本来是圆的但得到的结果却是不圆的,这样就把本来是合格的产品当作废品处理了,这是不应该出现的问题,本文提供了一种新的算法来解决此问题.     

磁粉制动器的滑差功率研究

首先用理论方法对经过结构优化的磁粉制动器的滑差功率进行了计算，然后在自行设计、安装的实验台上对其进行了温升实验，所得理论计算值和实测值的一致性较好，在此基础上确定了它的额定滑差功率线图。     

自然伽玛曲线上的“海侵针”及其地质意义

自然伽玛曲线上的尖锥状～针状特高异常—“海侵针”,常可指示海侵作用与海相层的存在:“阵发式”海退与“振荡式”海退则是含煤岩系形成过程中两类常见的利于聚煤的海退类型.     

Internal interactions within the human circadian system: the masking effect

Summary In the realm of human circadian rhythms, the masking effect is defined as the change in the course of deep body temperature induced by changes in the degree of physical activity, or by the alteration between sleep and wake. This effect is particularly obvious during internal desynchronization where the rhythms of deep body temperature, and the sleep-wake sleep-wake sleep cycle — i.e. one of the masking factors — run with different periods.Every sleep onset is accompanied by a rapid drop, and wake onset by a rapid rise in deep body temperature, each one with an overshoot of about 50% of the steady state variations. When rhythms are calculated, with the dominant temperature period as the screening period, exclusively from data obtained during sleep episodes, on the one hand, and from those obtained exclusively during wake, on the other, two average cycles emerge: the sleep temperature curve and the wake temperature curve. Both run in parallel but are separated by the masking effcct. As derived from many experiments, the mean masking effect amounts to 0.28±0.06°C. The masking effect also depends to some extent on the phase of the temperature rhtthm; it is larger than average around the temperature maximum and during the descending phase of the temperature cycle, where the alertness commonly is highest and the probability to sleep, in general, and the REM sleep propensity, in particular, are smaller than average. This also can be interpreted to indicate that the sleep temperature curve is phase advanced relative to the wake temperature curve; this, on the average, by 0.9±0.3 h.If the individually determined amount of masking is added to the temperature data obtained during sleep, or substracted from the temperature data obtained during wake, a temperature curve emerges that can be though of as being purified of the masking effect. Analyses of this artificial curve allow estimation of that part of the internal interactions uninfluenced by the masking effect. On the average, about half of the amount of interaction between the rhythm of sleep-wake and that of deep body temperature is explained by the masking effect, whereas the other half is oscillatory interaction. Both types of interaction are inherent and inseparable parts of the circadian clock mechanism, as can be deduced from model considerations.     

正交激励超声切削装置的椭圆轨迹偏转与校正

为研究超声椭圆振动切削（ultrasonic elliptical vibration cutting,UEVC）刀尖轨迹形成及控制,解决刀尖轨迹非正椭圆问题,建立二维正交柔性导波UEVC装置刀尖轨迹的运动学模型;分析90°相位差下非正椭圆轨迹产生原因,建立刀尖轨迹校正模型,并推导出基于正椭圆轨迹下的刀尖轨迹偏转模型。通过实验对刀尖轨迹校正模型进行验证,校正后轨迹偏离坐标轴1.67°,小于校正前偏离角度。实验结果表明,该模型能够有效地校正刀尖轨迹,可在轨迹控制方面为后续研究刀尖轨迹偏转及变刀尖轨迹超声振动加工提供理论基础。     

扩展裂纹缺陷评定方法的优化研究

裂纹扩展的缺陷评定方法,越益受到了人们的重视,美国ＥＰＲＩ提出的“裂纹 推力图”方法,虽然准确合理,但方法偏于繁复,尚难于向工程界推广。清华大学力学 研究所曾先后提出几种评定方法,以期使评定过程得以简化。在此基础上,文章提出 “相容应力增量”法作为优化方法,它将使全部评定过程大为简化,从而为扩展裂纹的 缺陷评定方法向工程界推广创造便利条件。     

光伏模组积灰与阴影特性分析及识别方法

针对光伏模组积灰与阴影特性识别问题,详细分析了积灰和阴影的光伏特性曲线差异,揭示了阴影光伏曲线的拐点时变特性。提出由特性曲线的拐点数量及电流电压特性条件共同构成训练模型的输入特征量,基于CatBoost算法训练积灰和阴影识别模型。最后,利用光伏模组实测数据对CatBoost算法、ID3和GA-BP算法训练出的识别模型进行性能分析和对比测试,结果表明基于CatBoost训练出的识别模型输入量区分性强、诊断精度高,极具工程应用价值。     

一般生长曲线模型中共同均值参数的线性估计的泛容许性

本文对于一般生长曲线模型中共同均值的线性估计的可容许性。