经济生活模式与英汉习语

习语是语言的缩影。大部分习语来自普通老百姓的生产活动和生活经历,反映出经济文化等对语言的巨大影响。在语言的发展过程中,历史文化的痕迹残留在习语当中。通过对比分析英汉习语的文化内涵,来揭示中英两民族早期不同的经济生活模式以及对生活的不同态度。     

BJ4320SMFJ型车和ZK6100H型车维护周期验证与经济效益分析

结合车辆运行生产实际,采用试验对比及数理统计方法,实施信息反馈,验证并在必要时对前期理论研究阶段所得到的模型解进行修正,以便最终确定目前国产主要货运和客运使用车型的最优维护周期。     

关于影子价格的一个理论误区

对影子价格的理论基础进行了研究,通过对线性规划及其对偶问题经济涵义的分析,揭示了以线性规划中的影子价格为基础定义国民经济评价中的影子价格是一个理论误区,并指出影子价格的理论定义应为帕累托最优状态下的均衡价格.     

辽宁省能源消费的因素分解——基于完全分解模型

在描述辽宁省经济增长、经济结构、能源消费量和能源密度的基础上,运用无残差的完全分解模型进行量化分析,分解出经济增长、结构和能源密度等因素对能源消费变动的影响效果,得出相应的影响效果系数,并通过与全国平均水平比较,找出辽宁省能源消费变动的特征与分阶段各因素的具体影响效果,为辽宁等老工业基地制定能源政策,提高能源利用效率提供科学的依据.     

Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprise factors for forecasting and nowcasting gross domestic product (GDP) using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey; and we carry out a forecasting horse race in which predictions from various different models are compared. These models may (or may not) contain latent uncertainty and surprise factors constructed using both local and global economic datasets. The set of models that we examine in our experiments includes both simple benchmark linear econometric models as well as dynamic factor models that are estimated using a variety of frequentist and Bayesian data shrinkage methods based on the least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO). We find that the inclusion of our new uncertainty and surprise factors leads to superior predictions of GDP growth, particularly when these latent factors are constructed using Bayesian variants of the LASSO. Overall, our findings point to the importance of spillover effects from global uncertainty and data surprises, when predicting GDP growth in emerging market economies.     

中国经济增长与杠杆率的非线性关系研究--基于制造业面板数据门限回归分析

传统理论基于有效市场理论(EMH)主要从公司财务视角研究杠杆率问题,忽略了生产环节的决定机制.本文从决定生产效率的全要素生产率视角对杠杆率的决定机制重新认识.并采用制造业29个行业1995-2016年的面板数据,以杠杆率为门限变量构建动态面板门限模型,主要研究结论为:1)经济增长-杠杆率的门限值位于名义杠杆率114,在门限值左侧,杠杆率增加促进经济增长,在门限值右侧,杠杆率增加"拖累"经济增长,杠杆率对经济增长整体表现"倒U"型关系;2)经济增长-杠杆率的泡沫杠杆率门限值位于泡沫杠杆率65,当名义杠杆率包含的泡沫杠杆率低于65时,杠杆率增加对经济具有显著的促进效应,当包含的杠杆率大于65时,杠杆率对经济增长的作用并不明显,说明经济可能进入了滞胀阶段;3)经济增长-足值杠杆率的关于对泡沫杠杆率存在双门门限效应,分别是43、49,当泡沫杠杆率小于43时,增加泡沫杠杆率对经济的增长的促进效应小于泡沫杠杆率介于[43,49]区间的效应,当泡沫杠杆率大于49时,泡沫杠杆率对经济增长的促进作用不再明显.     

基于随机Hough变换的快速圆检测方法

针对随机Ｈｏｕｇｈ变换（ＲＨＴ）在复杂图象中检测圆时随机采样所造成的大量无效累积,提出了一种改进的ＲＨＴ用于圆检测,它是利用精度要求不高的梯度方向信息来决定是否对采样到的三点进行参数累积,从而较好地解决了无效累积问题．改进后的算法比原算法计算速度快、占用的内存小得多,检测性能有较大提高．     

“城市化”发展模式对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响

"三农"问题的突破口在于农村剩余劳动力的转移,而"城市化"则是劳动力转移的最佳途径。我国建国以来一直采用城乡分隔的管理体制,城市化远远滞后于工业化。在城市化发展模式选择上,有以大中城市发展为重心和以发展小城镇为重心两种主要观点。不同的城市化发展模式对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响不同。根据我国的国情,我国的城市化模式应该是既能发挥城市的集聚功能,又能很好地实现农村剩余劳动力的转移。由此,提出了"五元经济结构"的假设,我国应该以发展大中城市为主,小城镇建设为辅。在大城市转移剩余劳动力有限的情况下,小城镇可以发展以为农服务的产业来实现农村剩余劳动力的非农化转移。     

Price–Dividend Ratios and Stock Price Predictability

A long‐standing puzzle to financial economists is the difficulty of outperforming the benchmark random walk model in out‐of‐sample contests. Using data from the USA over the period of 1872–2007, this paper re‐examines the out‐of‐sample predictability of real stock prices based on price–dividend (PD) ratios. The current research focuses on the significance of the time‐varying mean and nonlinear dynamics of PD ratios in the empirical analysis. Empirical results support the proposed nonlinear model of the PD ratio and the stationarity of the trend‐adjusted PD ratio. Furthermore, this paper rejects the non‐predictability hypothesis of stock prices statistically based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests and economically based on the criteria of expected real return per unit of risk. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey‐based versus text‐based data

Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey‐based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey‐based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross‐national comparative research results are suited better than national‐level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross‐national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.