对生态美学的两点质疑

作为生态美学重要的哲学——美学原则的“生态中心主义”，潜藏着颠覆“人本位主义”的危险；而作为对自然进行所谓“生态学的重新审视”而提出的“自然的复魅”，也存在着容易导致另一个极端的不良趋势，并且缺乏可操作性。本文拟对上述观点提出质疑和批评。     

弱智儿童家庭早期干预的实践与研究

家庭早期干预训练是为了最大限度地挖掘儿童潜力.在解释早期干预的基础上,分析了家庭早期干预训练的优越性,阐述了弱智儿童家庭早期干预训练的实践与研究.     

Evolutionary and ecological implications of cardenolide sequestration in the monarch butterfly

Summary Monarch butterflies sequester cardenolides from their larval host plants in the milkweed genusAsclepias for use in defense against predation. Of 108Asclepias species in North America, monarchs are known to feed as larvae on 27. Research on 11 of these has shown that monarchs sequester cardenolides most effectively, to an asymptote of approximately 350 g/0.1 g dry butterfly, from plants with intermediate cardenolide contents rather than from those with very high or very low cardenolide contents. SinceAsclepias host plant species are distributed widely in space and time across the continent, monarchs exploit them by migration between breeding and overwintering areas. After overwintering in central Mexico, spring migrants east of the Rocky Mountains exploit three predominantAsclepias species in the southern USA that have moderately high cardenolide contents. Monarchs sequester cardenolides very effectively from these species. First generation butterflies are thus well protected against predators and continue the migration north. Across the northern USA and southern Canada most summer breeding occurs on a fourthAsclepias species and in autumn most of these monarchs migrate back to Mexican overwintering sites. The ecological implications of this cycle of cardenolide sequestration for the evolution of monarch migration are discussed.     

城市化途径及其相关

对城市化途径有关各要素作了综合的叙述,并且指出研究的手段──自人口的聚集至城镇形成发展这一历史的纵剖面及地域、产业结构等横向有关要素作整体系统的分析与比较,并指出应重点研究人口指标分析、产业可比关系、城市化和城市化设施,以及城市体系的研究问题。     

龙门山北段早泥盆世Polygnathus的演化和古生态

龙门山北段早泥盆世牙形石动物群和Polygnathus的面貌与澳大利亚等地有惊人的相似之处。由Polygnathus dehiscens dehiscens→P.nothoperbonus→P.inversus→P.serotinus,以及由P.perbonus→P.labiosus→P.declinatus(=“P.pseudoserotinus”)的演化路线已经观察到。该序列主要繁盛于底栖相区。即使在同一生物地理区内,Polyg-nathus各分子的分布也受到相的控制,从而形成不同的演化路线。该文还简要描述了几个重要属种,其中有一新种和一未定种。     

太湖流域超标特大洪水风险预警系统建设及应用

为做好超标洪水调度、保障流域防洪安全,开发建设了由基于水文水动力学耦合的超警超保风险区域预警模型与基于水文学法的洪水淹涝风险快速评估模型共同组成的超标特大洪水风险预警系统,该系统在太湖流域预报调度一体化系统中通过智能交互方式进行模型与系统的紧密集成,实现了预报调度成果的可视化。基于水利一张图的超警超保与淹涝动态展示,实现了预报产品从点到面、从常规预报到影响预测的突破,以及洪水风险由静态评估向实时快速动态分析的转变。应用结果表明：系统在2020年太湖流域性大洪水中累计发布超警超保风险提示39期、洪水淹涝风险评估4期,预测结果与实际基本一致,为科学调度防御超标洪水提供了技术支撑,避免了江苏省苏州市3万多的人员转移,有力保障了太湖流域防洪安全。     

基于未确知数学的网络安全风险评估模型

结合网络安全评价中存在诸多不确定因素的特点,提出一种基于未确知数学理论的网络安全综合评价新方法。分析了网络安全风险的因素,建立了网络安全风险评价因素的指标体系和评价等级空间。在分析网络安全风险因素的基础上,建立了网络安全风险评价因素的指标体系和评价等级空间,将未确知数学的方法运用于网络安全风险的综合评估中,在未确知测度理论的基础上,定义了未确知测度期望、未确知评价等级二值效应量值、综合评价的未确知测度向量、未确知等级二值效应期望和二值效应方差等新的未确知数学概念。在新的未确知概念的基础上,建立了网络安全风险综合评估的未确知数学模型。并用实例对该模型进行了应用,评价结果用一个未确知有理数来表示更符合实际。实例表明该方法计算简单科学有效,为网络安全综合评价提供了一种新途径。     

危险评价的广义突变理论

引入分析力学,泛函分析和变分原理,对系统危险性进行分析,在系统安全理论和泛涵的基础上建立了危险评价的突变模型,发展了事故分析及危险评价的更高层次的突变理论,称之为危险评价的广义突变理论,通过两个典型实例,介绍了广义突变理论的应用方法。     

The discovery of early Permian reef belt in east Kunlun and its significance

The early permian reef belt is distributed in the southern side of eastern Kunlun, north area of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The core-reef facies of thc reel extends from Tuosuo Lake to Huashixia. Lots of reef breccia was found at the southern slope of the mre-reef belt, and to the north of the reef belt there is back-reef limestone. Cacisponges, hydrozoa, bryozoa,Tabulozoa, Tubiphytes and red algae are the main frame-building organisms.Archaeolithoporella, laminated blue-green algaes,Tabulozoa andTubiphytes played a role of binding or encrustating. There are many kinds of epibiont in the mf, including brachiopod, gasterid, foraminifera, echinoderm and simple coral. The type and the characteristics of the reef-building organisms in eastern Kunlun and Animaqing are basically thr same as those in the south of Chi     

基于因素敏感性水平的边际油田开发模糊风险分析

海上油田开发投资大时间长,并伴随着相当大的不确定性和风险．尤其是边际油田的开发,其投资风险更不容忽视．分析了海上油田开发的不确定性因素,在敏感性分析的基础上,定义了不确定性参数对评价指标的敏感度．利用模糊风险分析,确定了方案的风险度,对开发方案的风险程度进行了定量分析,为方案的选择提供了决策依据．对某一海上边际油田的开发进行了示例分析,计算结果表明,边际油田的开发具有很高的风险,而投资费用、石油价格以及可采储量的不确定性是引起开发风险的主要因素．