Prediction from the One‐Way Error Components Model with AR(1) Disturbances

In this paper we extend the works of Baillie and Baltagi (1999, in Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables Models, Hsiao C et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 255–267) and generalize certain results from the Baltagi and Li (1992, Journal of Forecasting 11 : 561–567) paper accounting for AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In particular, we derive six predictors for the one‐way error components model, as well as their associated asymptotic mean squared error of multi‐step prediction in the presence of AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In addition, we also provide both theoretical and simulation evidence as to the relative efficiency of our alternative predictors. The adequacy of the prediction AMSE formula is also investigated by the use of Monte Carlo methods and indicates that the ordinary optimal predictor performs well for various accuracy criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

COM组件的设计与使用

本文从现代编程思想出发，介绍了COM组件技术及在现实编程环境中遇到的一些有关COM编程的关键技术．并具体描述了联机手写汉字规整化COM组件的设计及在客户程序中如何使用组件．     

Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非文本区域优先的版面分析方法

版面分析目前已成为提高汉字识别系统效率的关键技术之一。针对中文版面较为复杂的特点,本文提出一种非文本区域优先的版面分析方法。该方法提取文档图像中所有连通域,根据连通域的大小进行聚类,从而可以得到文字连通域和非文字连通域,以达到分割版面的目的。实验结果表明,这种方法能够对比较规范的中文版面进行分析,具有较高的效率和较好的适应性。     

因子分析在学生成绩影响因素调查结果中的应用

因子分析基本思想是通过对多个原始变量提取主成分,经过正交旋转,可以找出主要的独立影响因素。通过对学生的多因素多样本问卷调查,将因子分析应用于教育教学数据分析之中,从而找出影响学生学习成绩的主要原因,为进一步的教育教学改革提供了一定的理论依据。     

常微分方程初值问题的多重网格解法

将多重网格方法应用于隐式Runge-Kutta公式,得到一种常微分方程初值问题的数值解法。还具体构造了多重网格分量,并分析了方法的阶,给出了一种以分步推进式的多重网格方法求第一次近似值的过程,从实例看,应用此法所得的解有非常好的精确度。     

主分量分析在植被演替研究中之作用的探讨

本文用E、S两组主分量分析,对陕西省铜川地区植被次生演替进行分析。其结果表明,主分量分析是一种在自然条件复杂的较大区域内,研究植被次生演替的有效方法,它有助于认识植被次生演替与生态条件的关系及演替过程中群落性质的变化特点。     

红麻纤维形态和化学组成的研究

对红麻进行测定的结果说明,韧皮部纤维细长,形状和结构与针叶木相似;而木质部纤维粗短;韧皮部的综纤维素含量高于木质部,而1％NaOH溶液溶出物、木质素和戊聚糖低于木质部。红麻的综纤维素主要由萄葡糖基和木糖基组成,韧皮部纤维可代替针叶木制造优质纸浆。     

红豆浆果的成分分析

红豆学名越桔(Cowberry,拉丁名Vaccinium Vitis-idaea),为杜鹃花科野生植物,果实红色,味酸甜,可生食,亦可用糖或盐淹后食用。内蒙古大兴安岭一带盛产,藏量丰富。当地用其来酿制红豆酒及生产软饮料。急待开发新产品,以便提高资源利用率。 本文着眼于内蒙地区丰富的天然资源及应用现状,对红豆果的组成及氨基酸的含量进行了测定。结果表明,其中含有常见的十八种氨基酸,八种人体必需的氨基酸,且含量较高,具有很高的营养价值。这为该项资源的开发和深加工提供了可靠的实验数据。