What can we learn from the fifties?

Economists have increasingly elicited probabilistic expectations from survey respondents. Subjective probabilistic expectations show great promise to improve the estimation of structural models of decision making under uncertainty. However, a robust finding in these surveys is an inappropriate heap of responses at “50%,” suggesting that some of these responses are uninformative. The way these 50s are treated in the subsequent analysis is of major importance. Taking the 50s at face value will bias any aggregate statistics. Conversely, deleting them is not appropriate if some of these answers do convey some information. Furthermore, the attention of researchers is so focused on this heap of 50s that they do not consider the possibility that other answers may be uninformative as well. This paper proposes to take a fresh look at these questions using a new method based on weak assumptions to identify the informativeness of an answer. Applying the method to probabilistic expectations of equity returns in three waves of the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999–2001, I find that: (i) at least 65% of the 50s convey no information at all; (ii) it is the answer most often provided among the answers identified as uninformative; (iii) but even if the 50s are a major contributor to noise, they represent at best 70% of the identified uninformative answers. These findings have various implications for survey design.     

关于电子自旋不是一种经典模型

本文通过两种方法证明电子自旋不是一种经典模型。     

基于系统工程的系统分类法及应用

首先叙述了一般文献中对系统的分类，然后对钱学森为首的一批知名学者关于系统的人和了介绍。详细地讨论了Ｓｈｅｎｈａｒ和Ｂｏｎｅｎ对系统的二维分类法，并同钱学森的系统分类法进行联系，根据２－Ｄ分类法，提出了系统开发的三维结构，最后对其应用实例进行了说明。     

Best tracking performance for integrator and dead time plant

The optimal tracking performance for integrator and dead time plant in the case where plant uncertainty and control energy constraints axe to be considered jointly is inrestigated.Firstly,an average cost function of the tracking error and the plant input energy over a class of stochastic model errors are defined.Then,we obtain an internal model controller design method that minimizes the average performance and further studies optimal tracking performance for integrator and dead time plant in the simultaneous presence of plant uncertainty and control energy constraint.The results can be used to evaluate optimal tracking performance and control energy in practical designs.     

师专普通物理实验教学中不确定度的讨论

论述了不确定度在普通物理实验教学中的可行性及计算。     

空气比热容比实验不确定度的近似处理

本文对空气比热容比实验不确定度的估计进行讨论，提出一种比较合理、规范又便于教学的近似处理方法。     

厂界噪声测量不确定度评估及应用

为了准确测量厂界噪声,引入噪声测量不确定度,通过对厂界噪声的测定分析,同时对厂界噪声测定不确定度作出评估.并提出为合理评价厂界噪声达标与否,在噪声的监测报告中应时本次监测的不确定度进行评估.     

车载北斗导航仪电源线传导发射测试

针对国内车载导航产品存在电磁兼容性测试不合格的问题,对某型车载北斗导航仪进行了电源线传导发射测试研究.首先分析了线性阻抗稳定网络(LISN)在测试中的重要作用,继而搭建测试平台分别测试了导航仪处于不同状态下的零线、火线传导发射,并评估了测量不确定度.为了对干扰信号的时频特性作进一步的分析,引入了短时傅里叶变换(STFFT)的分析方法.     

砝码表面状态预测及质量吸附修正研究动向

质量实物基准是所有基本量中唯一的实物基准,其缺点是容易受到环境的影响而造成质量的改变。总结了国内外计量院所对砝码表面状态预测方面的研究动向,指出了各国计量院所开展砝码表面状态预测研究的方向,包括:分析质量标准在"空气"和"真空"条件下传递时对质量标准造成的影响,建立砝码质量观测模型及吸附修正模型等。对砝码表面状态的研究和吸附修正技术的研究,最终可以提高质量测量的准确度,为即将到来的质量单位的重新定义研究打下技术基础。     

不确定云环境下基于滚动窗口的节能调度

目前,绿色云计算已经成为工业界和学术界的研究热点. 然而,以往的绿色节能调度研究忽略了虚拟机性能的不确定因素,使得调度效果与实际情况相差甚远. 本文提出一种基于滚动窗口的节能调度算法（ERRHU）,用于动态调度不确定云环境中的实时任务,同时根据系统的负载动态伸缩系统的计算资源以减少系统的能量消耗. 本文通过大量的模拟实验比较ERRHU与其他算法的性能.