江苏区域旅游游客满意度评价研究

游客满意是旅游市场竞争力的来源,是稳定规模化游客流的根本动力.运用灰色系统中灰色关联分析法,从交通、旅游景区(点)、购物、环境卫生、住宿、餐饮、娱乐、门票价格、导游讲解服务9个要素入手构建评价指标体系,以江苏12个省辖市为例,对游客满意度进行综合评价,揭示影响游客满意度众多指标之间关系的强弱,对12市游客满意度的优势劣势分析,并进行排序,得出江苏区域旅游游客满意度4个层次:镇江、扬州满意度最高,苏州、常州次之,南京、无锡、徐州、南通为第三层次,泰州、盐城、连云港和淮安最低。     

基于仿真驱动的高速公路主动限速效用评价与推荐

传统的路侧被动限速方式对于特定的惩处区域以外缺少管控,间接导致车辆行为在时空上的不一致性甚至突变,影响了交通的通行效率与安全性。从车侧主动限速方式入手,提出主动限速效用评价与推荐方法,结合道路线形、交通流量、车型比例,开展多情景主动、被动限速交通仿真,利用安全间接分析模型及交通流运行状态,从安全与效率2个层面提取效用评价指标及其权重,采用集成学习方法进行预测分析。结果显示：主动限速方式相较于被动限速方式更有利于提高安全性和调节效率,而在主动限速方面,GBDT(gradient boosting decision tree)回归模型的预测稳定性和准确率更高(R²=0.984)。     

舰载飞机着舰撞击载荷实测技术研究

针对国内飞机起落架载荷测量中普遍存在的静标动测问题,从理论和机理上分析了静标定的应变法实测动态载荷存在问题的原因。同时,考虑到舰载飞机因定点着舰方式遭受严重的动态载荷,重点研究了舰载飞机着舰撞击载荷的静标动测问题。通过动态落震试验模拟飞机着舰过程,根据测力平台的实测载荷分析,获取了应变法实测载荷精度受动态影响的程度,提出一种改进的惯性修正方法,即:通过落震试验数据辨识质量矩阵,通过辨识的质量矩阵和实测加速度修正应变法的实测载荷。试验结果表明,改进的惯性修正方法进一步提高了垂向载荷的测量精度,显著提高了航向和侧向载荷的实测精度。     

公路网规划的累积影响评价

分析了公路网规划的累积影响评价的程序和要点,包括评价目的、评价范围、评价要素和评价程序,提出了适合公路网累积影响评价的方法,并对各方法在累积影响中适用性做了初步地探讨.     

2000年-2017年中国PM2.5污染的健康影响及经济损失时空分布模式

当今环境下,大气污染是危害人体健康的主要威胁之一,对包括PM2.5在内的细颗粒物污染造成的人群健康影响和经济损失的估算是目前研究的热点之一.该研究采用人口、PM2.5污染浓度等基础数据以及流行病学等相关领域的研究结果,将全国区域划分为5 kmX5 km的精细格网,根据暴露—反应关系函数及统计生命价值法(VSL)、疾病成...     

煤层冲击倾向性试验及数值模拟

冲击地压是一种特殊的矿山动力现象,而冲击倾向性是煤岩体发生冲击地压的内在因素和必要条件.对松树镇煤矿主采煤层进行冲击倾向性试验,对冲击能量指数、弹性能量指数和动态破坏时间三个煤层冲击能量指标进行分析,得出煤层无冲击倾向性.但对开采煤层数值模拟,得出深部煤层顶部最大主应力值、顶板下沉较大,需要实施一定的防治措施.这为该矿防治冲击地压提供了科学依据.     

Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey‐based versus text‐based data

Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey‐based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey‐based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross‐national comparative research results are suited better than national‐level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross‐national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.     

基于扩张状态观测器的反预警滑模制导律

针对预警机的特殊作用,提出了利用临近空间高超声速飞行器的高度优势与速度优势,对预警机实施打击的概念,设计了反预警的制导律。针对预警机的机动,将其视为外在扰动,利用扩张状态观测器将其扩张为一个新的状态量,并对此状态量进行实时观测,将其补偿到制导指令中,有效解决了拦截末端需用过载过大的问题;同时对攻击目标时的落角进行约束,设计了带有落角约束的滑模制导律。将所设计的制导律与传统的弹道成型制导律作对比,结果表明,在飞行末段,滑模制导律具有更小的过载与视线角速度,相比传统弹道成型更具优势。     

A Comparison of the Forecasting Ability of Immediate Price Impact Models

As a consequence of recent technological advances and the proliferation of algorithmic and high‐frequency trading, the cost of trading in financial markets has irrevocably changed. One important change, known as price impact, relates to how trading affects prices. Price impact represents the largest cost associated with trading. Forecasting price impact is very important as it can provide estimates of trading profits after costs and also suggest optimal execution strategies. Although several models have recently been developed which may forecast the immediate price impact of individual trades, limited work has been done to compare their relative performance. We provide a comprehensive performance evaluation of these models and test for statistically significant outperformance amongst candidate models using out‐of‐sample forecasts. We find that normalizing price impact by its average value significantly enhances the performance of traditional non‐normalized models as the normalization factor captures some of the dynamics of price impact. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于跳跃滤波和时变参数估计的中国股市微观结构研究

为了更为有效地探究微观市场结构对股票价格的影响,本文在状态空间模型框架下,同时将交易方向、带方向的交易量、交易间隔、微观噪声以及跳跃因素引入状态方程和观测方程中,建立全面的市场微观结构模型,以反映各变量对交易价格序列产生的暂时性和永久性影响.然后,在采用基于粒子滤波的非参数离群点检测方法检测跳跃并对跳跃进行滤波的基础上,运用贝叶斯最小二乘方法对微观结构模型系数、波动率以及状态变量进行实时更新和估计,在此基础上分析跳跃日度分布、日内分布、个股跳跃和共同跳跃特征,并同时判断不同交易方向、交易量的订单对价格产生的影响.最后选取2015年股灾期间、沪市股票的逐笔数据作为研究样本进行实证研究.实证结果显示:我国股票高频时间序列跳跃和共同跳跃均存在日内季节性,且跳跃频率和大小与市场信息密切相关;买卖订单对交易价格及股票价值的影响并不是完全对称的,交易价格对于微观结构的敏感度、微观结构噪声也随市场波动而发生变化,熊市中都相对更高;考虑跳跃滤波并对参数进行实时估计可以提高价格对于交易的敏感度,能更好地捕捉市场微观结构在价格发现中的作用.