Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Co-occurrence of three Aristolochia-feeding Papilionids (Archon apollinus,Zerynthia polyxena and Zerynthia cerisy) in Greek Thrace

Comparative studies of co-occurring species using overlapping resources may help in understanding the mechanisms supporting biotic diversity in species-rich regions, such as the Mediterranean region of Europe. Three Papilionidae butterflies, Archon apollinus, Zerynthia cerisy and Zerynthia polyxena, develop on Aristolochia plants and co-occur in Greek Thrace. We used mark–recapture to describe adult demography and dispersal, and searched for eggs and larvae to assess host plants and microhabitat preferences. Adult flight timing followed a sequence from earliest A. apollinus, through Z. polyxena to late Z. cerisy; this was more prominent in 2010 (warm early spring) than in 2011 (cold delayed spring). Population densities were highest for A. apollinus and lowest for Z. cerisy, whereas dispersal ability followed a reverse pattern. Adults of all three species crossed distances > 3 km and used all habitat types present. Four Aristolochia host plants were used at the study locality: small Aristolochia pallida, intermediate Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia hirta, and bulky, late-sprouting Aristolochia clematitis. Both A. apollinus and Z. polyxena used all four Aristolochia species, the former preferring Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia hirta, the latter Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia pallida. Zerynthia cerisy did not use the early-growing Aristolochia pallida while frequently using the late-growing Aristolochia clematitis. Further parameters affecting oviposition were biotope and canopy closure: early A. apollinus tolerated shady sites but late Z. cerisy avoided them. The simultaneous use of several host plants differing in phenology and habitat requirements, combined with rather high dispersal ability, arguably buffers the butterflies’ population dynamics against yearly variation in weather, while allowing efficient occupation of the diverse Mediterranean landscapes. The regional habitat diversity, created during millennia of human activity, is currently threatened by land abandonment, which may diminish the resource base for the studied butterflies.     

Halacarid mites (Acari: Halacaridae) associated with a North Atlantic subtidal population of the kelp Laminaria ochroleuca

We characterised the mite fauna associated with a subtidal population of Laminaria ochroleuca in the Cantabrian Sea during a 4-year study. We found 2780 individuals belonging to 35 species. The mite assemblage comprised both north Atlantic and Mediterranean species, as usually reported from the Lusitanian region. The most abundant and diverse subfamily was Copidognathinae, followed by Halacarinae and Lohmannellinae. The greatest abundance of mites was detected on kelp holdfasts, not only strictly phytal mites were found but also interstitial mites or those associated with other macrofauna. Such a distribution could be explained by the high diversity and heterogeneity of microhabitats provided by holdfasts. Mite abundance fluctuated during the 4 years of the study. However, the lowest abundance was detected during the last year of sampling. During that year, the studied algal population suffered a severe decay leaving only degenerating holdfasts attached to the substrate, which could explain the decrease in mite numbers.     

Ten new species of the subgenus Steganina (Diptera: Drosophilidae: Stegana) from southern China

Ten new species of the subgenus Stegana (Steganina) are described from southern to south-western China: S. (S.) convena sp. nov., S. (S.) cylindrica sp. nov., S. (S.) eurystoma sp. nov., S. (S.) hamata sp. nov., S. (S.) hirticeps sp. nov., S. (S.) latigena sp. nov., S. (S.) planiceps sp. nov., S. (S.) rhomboica sp. nov., S. (S.) setivena sp. nov. and S. (S.) sphaerica sp. nov. They cannot be placed under any established species groups. http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:D4B6C5A7-3700-4B0C-8355-E4564C2A7296     

超声热疗中媒质特性对声聚焦的影响

以凹球面自聚焦超声换能器为例,用瑞利积分进行数值模拟计算,研究声衰减、声速、温度等参数对声聚焦的影响,并对不同生物组织中声聚焦的特点进行了比较.研究表明,不同的媒质的特性参数聚焦表现出不同的特点.声衰减系数增大,则焦斑向声源靠近且焦斑缩短;声速越大,则焦距越小,但焦域最大声压值升高,焦斑的面积增大;温度变化不大时,对声聚焦的影响不明显.     

线性区域数量与PLNN表达能力的相关性

使用分段线性激活函数的神经网络(PLNN)在机器学习中得到广泛应用.本文给出了一种PLNN模型表达能力的度量值——线性区域数量,并给出了线性区域的数学表示.分析了线性区域之间的关系并计算合并后的线性区域数量,同时给出一种基于Z曲线的线性区域数量的计算方法.针对一个任务实例进行分析,计算不同网络结构的线性区域数量及合并后...     

经济欠发达地区产业集群作用机理研究——以河南省为例

研究提出了经济欠发达地区产业集群作用机理,以较低的经济成本启动或推动当地工业化进程,并通过集群效应,加速资本积累,提升地区核心竞争力,安排更多的劳动力从传统农业转向现代工业生产领域,逐步完成社会结构由农业社会向工业社会的重大历史性转变.     

太阳高年期间海南电离层扩展F出现的起始时间研究

电离层扩展F与电离层闪烁现象密切相关,它们出现的起始时间存在着很大程度上的一致性,因此研究电离层扩展F出现的起始时间将对闪烁预报模型的建立具有重要的应用价值.将太阳高年（2002年3月-2003年2月）期间海南地区DPS-4测高仪观测到的扩展F按照频率、区域、混合和强区域扩展等分为四种类型,对其出现的起始时间进行了分析研究.结果表明：频率扩展和混合扩展的起始时间分别集中在0200LT-0800LT和0000LT-0600LT;而区域扩展和强区域扩展出现的起始时间分别集中在2000LT-0200LT和2000LT-2200LT.     

区域可持续发展质量预测建模

最本文在对预警的背景、理论和方法充分研究的基础上,首先在总体上阐明了预警研究的背景、现状和方法．以及区域发展质量监测与预警的意义及过程。设计了预测系统的指标体系、衡量与评价方案,旨在尝试构建可持续发展预测系统的框架,为可持续发展的定量研究提供一个新的思路。