P波离散度对阵发性心房颤动的预测价值研究

目的：探讨P波离散度（Pd）对阵发性心房颤动（PAF）的预测价值。方法：将79例PAF患者和85例健康体检者分为A、B两组进行比较,分别采用体表心电图和超声心动图测量两组最大P波时限（Pmax）、Pd、左房内径（LAD）,左室射血分数。结果：A组Pmax、pd,LAD显著高于B组（P〈0.01）,单因素回归分析Pmax、Pd、LAD均是PAF的预测因子,多因素回归分析仅pd是PAF的独立预测因子。结论：pd对PAF有重要预测价值,是PAF的一个无创较特异的独立的预测指标。     

Searching for Strange Attractor in Sliver Irregularity Series

The chaotic nonlinear time series method isapplied to analyze the sliver irregularity in textileprocessing. Because it unifies the system's determinacy andrandonmess, it seems more adaptive to describe the sliverirregularity than conventional methods. Firstly, the chaoscharacter, i. e. fractal dimension, positive Lyapunovexponent, and state space parameters, including time delayand reconstruction dimension, are calculated respectively.As a result, a positive Lyapunov exponent and a fractaldimension are obtained, which demonstrates that the systemis chaotic in fact. Secondly, both local linear forecast andglobal forecast models based on the reconstructed state areadopted to predict a segment part of the sliver irregularityseries, which proves the validity of this analysis.Therefore, the sliver irregularity series shows the evidenceof chaotic phenomena, and thus laying the theoreticalfoundation for analyzing and modeling the sliver irregularityseries by applying the chaos theory, and providing a newway to understand the complexity of the sliver irregularitymuch better.     

Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting

Croston's method is widely used to predict inventory demand when it is intermittent. However, it is an ad hoc method with no properly formulated underlying stochastic model. In this paper, we explore possible models underlying Croston's method and three related methods, and we show that any underlying model will be inconsistent with the properties of intermittent demand data. However, we find that the point forecasts and prediction intervals based on such underlying models may still be useful. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

System of developing scale modeling and simulation for URAV

The unmanned reconnaissance aerial vehicle （URAV） plays an important role in battlefield monitoring and information acquiring because of its advantage of zero casualties, and has thus attracted considerable attention of the world. The URAV was developed rapidly in our country, however, no scientific assessment methods have yet been provided owing to different fight requirements of armed forces. Considering the demand of the missile artillery on the martial information, the model of information requirement of combat force, the reconnaissance ability of URAV, the survivability of URAV, and the task reliability of URAV were constructed, respectively. By synthesizing the mathematic models above, the model of developing demand was constructed on the URAV equipment. It simulated and calculated some URAV equipment developing scales, and explored a way of settling the problem of URAV equipment developing demand.     

个性化信息需求——网络资源更深层次的利用

介绍了个性化信息需求的含义,阐述了个性化信息需求的提供类型和典型代表,探讨了个性化信息需求的得力助手——特色搜索引擎。     

Coordination by Option Contracts in a Retailer-Led Supply Chain with Demand Update

This research examines how to use an option contract to coordinate a retailer-led supply chain where the market information can be updated. Based on Stackelberg game theory, we build a mode with one supplier and one retailer in which the retailer designs contracts to coordinate the supplier＇s production in a two-mode production environment. This focuses on an option contract that consists of two option prices and one exercise price. By theoretical analysis and numerical example, we find that such a contract can coordinate the supplier and retailer to act in the best interest of the channel. The optimal pricing conditions are given as follows： First, option prices should be negatively correlated to the exercise price and should be in a relevant range. Second, the first-period option price should be no greater than the second-period price and should be linearly correlated to the second-period option price when the latter is beyond some threshold. The results show that such option contracts can arbitrarily allocate the extra system profit between the two parties so that each party is in a win-win situation.     

股票交易价格预测模型研究

本文在分析股票交易价格影响因素和对股价波动进行分解研究的基础上,建立了一种带控制项变量的股票交易价格自相关预测模型和相应的计算机软件.计算结果表明,本模型具有实用价值.     

从与港澳的互补关系谈珠江三角洲的旅游特色与旅游开发

本文从回顾珠江三角洲的旅游发展和立足于与香港、澳门间旅游资源、旅游空间和旅游市场的相互补充关系,论述其旅游开发特色和旅游活动的结构层次,旨在树立珠江三角洲地区的旅游形象,与港澳之间形成一个相得而益彰的旅游整体,成为东亚国际旅游区的重要组成部分。     

Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models

We evaluate forecasting models of US business fixed investment spending growth over the recent 1995:1–2004:2 out‐of‐sample period. The forecasting models are based on the conventional Accelerator, Neoclassical, Average Q, and Cash‐Flow models of investment spending, as well as real stock prices and excess stock return predictors. The real stock price model typically generates the most accurate forecasts, and forecast‐encompassing tests indicate that this model contains most of the information useful for forecasting investment spending growth relative to the other models at longer horizons. In a robustness check, we also evaluate the forecasting performance of the models over two alternative out‐of‐sample periods: 1975:1–1984:4 and 1985:1–1994:4. A number of different models produce the most accurate forecasts over these alternative out‐of‐sample periods, indicating that while the real stock price model appears particularly useful for forecasting the recent behavior of investment spending growth, it may not continue to perform well in future periods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.