基于读者需求的馆藏资源配置评价分析

以山东科技大学济南校区图书馆为例,采用定量与定性相结合的方法,对馆藏资源配置进行了评价分析,介绍了评价的基本原则及指标,阐述了评价的工作流程,并从馆藏建设、读者利用率、服务与共享3个方面讨论了评价的具体方案。     

基于用户需求的数据库建设的实践与思考

结合实践,详细阐述了数据库建设与用户需求互动、数据库技术与用户需求互动、数据库建设与用户服务互动等方面的意义、作用及效果。     

Estimating private information usage amongst analysts: evidence from UK earnings forecasts

This paper introduces a methodology for estimating the likelihood of private information usage amongst earnings analysts. This is achieved by assuming that one group of analysts generate forecasts based on the underlying dynamics of earnings, while all other analysts are assumed to issue forecasts based on the prevailing consensus forecast. Given this behavioural dichotomy, we are able to derive (and estimate) a structural econometric model of forecast behaviour, which has implications regarding the determinants of analysts' private information endowments and forecast accuracy over the forecast horizon. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market

Most economic variables are released with a lag, making it difficult for policy‐makers to make an accurate assessment of current conditions. This paper explores whether observing Internet browsing habits can inform practitioners about aggregate consumer behavior in an emerging market. Using data on Google search queries, we introduce an index of online interest in automobile purchases in Chile and test whether it improves the fit and efficiency of nowcasting models for automobile sales. Despite relatively low rates of Internet usage among the population, we find that models incorporating our Google Trends Automotive Index outperform benchmark specifications in both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample nowcasts, provide substantial gains in information delivery times, and are better at identifying turning points in the sales data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

数字图书馆信息推荐服务中用户需求偏好模型研究

从用户需求偏好模型逻辑结构、用户需求偏好特征的抽取方式、用户需求偏好模型动态更新3个方面,阐述了当前国内外数字图书馆信息推荐服务中用户需求偏好模型的研究现状,分析了用户需求偏好模型研究所遇到的困难和发展趋势。     

高职院校青年教师“双师”成长需求分析及路径探索

基于对全国50余所高职院校的125名教师进行问卷调查,统计分析青年教师参与教学的现状,并从"双师"培养的角度出发,分析实际存在的成长需求,探索适合的青年"双师"成长路径,为地方高职院校青年教师成长与学校良性发展提供一定的参考。     

基于需求预测的店中店模式决策

基于Yue等人的需求预测模型, 研究了产品替代度、市场波动以及渠道成员需求预测精度对店中店模式和 传统模式下渠道成员收益的影响, 并以此为基础说明了制造商在不同情况下应如何选择销售模式. 研究表 明: 第一, 在产品替代度较小时, 制造商和零售商均倾向于选择店中店这一销售模式, 反之, 则双方更倾 向于选择传统模式; 第二, 当市场波动较大时, 制造商更倾向于采用店中店模式, 反之, 则双方更倾向于 选择传统模式, 同时在一定的市场波动范围内, 采用店中店模式对渠道双方均有利; 第三, 店中店模式下 制造商的需求预测精度越高, 制造商越倾向于采用店中店模式, 且该需求预测提高到一定的程度后, 采用 店中店模式对渠道双方均有利.     

Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of household subjective forecasts of personal finance. We use non‐parametric directional analysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitative judgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are able to analyse a large number of individuals over a number of years. We also take into account individual characteristics such as gender, age, education and employment status when assessing their subjective forecasts. The paper extends the existing literature in two ways: the accuracy and usefulness of subjective forecasts, based on directional analysis, are assessed at the household level for the first time. Secondly, we adapt and extend the methods of directional analysis, which are applied to the household panel or longitudinal survey. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The approximation of long‐memory processes by an ARMA model

A mean square error criterion is proposed in this paper to provide a systematic approach to approximate a long‐memory time series by a short‐memory ARMA(1, 1) process. Analytic expressions are derived to assess the effect of such an approximation. These results are established not only for the pure fractional noise case, but also for a general autoregressive fractional moving average long‐memory time series. Performances of the ARMA(1,1) approximation as compared to using an ARFIMA model are illustrated by both computations and an application to the Nile river series. Results derived in this paper shed light on the forecasting issue of a long‐memory process. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

性别话语交际的人际功能分析

系统功能语法理论是考察性别在话语交际中实现人际功能的重要方式。性别双方在交际过程中对意义潜势的不同选择决定了他们在传递信息时采用不同的语言形式，并在这一过程中实现对社会角色的分配。