硅藻土滑坡稳定性分析及其时间预报

目的在分析硅藻土对斜坡不稳定性的特性指标的基础上,研究滑坡的形成机理,进而提出滑坡的防治措施。方法分析总结前人的滑坡体稳定性计算理论,建立适合于缓倾角混合岩土质滑坡计算模型,同时在模型中引进建筑荷载及降雨导致地下水位上升的动态参数。结果地下水位场的变化对滑坡体稳定性敏感较大,人工荷载的影响次之,利用建立的预报模型可以进行滑坡预报。结论建立的滑坡体稳定性评价模型与滑坡时间的预报判据,操作简便,结果与实际相吻合。     

大连市耕地供需分析及开发对策

大连是个沿海开放城市，耕地资源的相对短缺已成为区域经济发展的重要议题，本文从大连市耕地利用的供需特点入手，探讨未来大连市耕地开发利用的途径及开发对策．     

市场经济条件下住房的供给与需求：房地产市场理论研究之一

住房是人们生活中的一项最为重要的特殊商品。显然，随着中国经济体制与住房制度的改革，城镇住房也必须要成为中国城镇居民的一项最为重要的特殊商品。中国的住房供给与需求也必将遵循市场经济的规律。因此，研究市场经济条件下的住房供给与需求毫无疑问是非常必要的。本文根据经济学的基本原理研究了住房价格、家庭结构、家庭收入等方面对住房需求的影响，对住房供给进行了理论探讨，并根据效用函数原理进行了相应的模型研究。     

考虑容量扩张决策的确定性库存问题研究

分析了有限时段和无限时段具有容量约束的连续时间确定性时齐库存系统的最优存储和容量扩张联合决策问题。首先证明在有容量约束的情况下等时间间隔补充策略最优。在此基础上,分别求解考虑存在固定容量扩张成本条件下的有限时段和无限时段问题的补充及容量扩张联合最优决策,并进一步分析了最优策略中各种成本之间的平衡关系。     

Exponential smoothing: The state of the art

This paper is a critical review of exponential smoothing since the original work by Brown and Holt in the 1950s. Exponential smoothing is based on a pragmatic approach to forecasting which is shared in this review. The aim is to develop state-of-the-art guidelines for application of the exponential smoothing methodology. The first part of the paper discusses the class of relatively simple models which rely on the Holt-Winters procedure for seasonal adjustment of the data. Next, we review general exponential smoothing (GES), which uses Fourier functions of time to model seasonality. The research is reviewed according to the following questions. What are the useful properties of these models? What parameters should be used? How should the models be initialized? After the review of model-building, we turn to problems in the maintenance of forecasting systems based on exponential smoothing. Topics in the maintenance area include the use of quality control models to detect bias in the forecast errors, adaptive parameters to improve the response to structural changes in the time series, and two-stage forecasting, whereby we use a model of the errors or some other model of the data to improve our initial forecasts. Some of the major conclusions: the parameter ranges and starting values typically used in practice are arbitrary and may detract from accuracy. The empirical evidence favours Holt's model for trends over that of Brown. A linear trend should be damped at long horizons. The empirical evidence favours the Holt-Winters approach to seasonal data over GES. It is difficult to justify GES in standard form–the equivalent ARIMA model is simpler and more efficient. The cumulative sum of the errors appears to be the most practical forecast monitoring device. There is no evidence that adaptive parameters improve forecast accuracy. In fact, the reverse may be true.     

ADAPTIVE FORECAST AND CONTROL OF THE MARKET ECONOMIC SYSTEM WITH FUZZY INPUTS

In this paper, the adaptive forecast and control of the market economic system with fuzzy inputs is discussed. A new method which is adapted for the adaptive forecast and control of this kind of system is introduced. Through a living example the better result is explained concretly.     

SARS预测模型及分析

充分考虑对SARS流行有较大影响的多个因素,建立了改进的微分方程模型.特别在模型中加入了反映政府控制措施的多个参数,并在SARS流行的控制前后等不同阶段发挥控制作用,使得模型的计算结果和实际数据吻合较好,有效地预测了SARS的流行趋势,并给出了控制措施及建议.     

Small Cell Layouts Based on Accounting Product Demand and Operating Sequences

Most current cell layout methods do not take into account the product demand and operating sequences, and may be too sophisticated for facilities with a relatively small number of products. A specific method for designing small manufacturing cells was developed especially for the press production lines,which is computationally simple, and yet considers product demand and the operating sequences. A simulated application illustrates the robustness of the layouts to demand changes. The method uses simple rules and database tools, so it is accessible to a wide range of facilities.     

论我国铁矿工业发展战略

为适应国民经济发展的需要，根据《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展“九五”计划和０年远景目标的建议》，我国对钢铁工业的发展作了调整，铁矿的生产和建设是钢铁工业发展的基础。因此，研究铁矿工业发展战略十分重要，本文不供需预测、战略布局和存在问题及主要对策进行了分析探讨。     

2000年中国轿车保有量预测—中国轿车工业发展浅析

2000年中国轿车保有量与我国石油需求量密切相关。本文提出一种国际类比预测方法, 即根据轿车保有量与人均GNP之间存在的普遍规律, 预测2000年中国轿车保有量。计算结果说明这种预测方法和模型是合理的、有效的。预测结果对我国能源需求预测有重要意义。