考虑用户行为和排错延迟的多版本软件可靠性增长模型

软件在测试阶段和使用阶段操作环境的差别导致软件测试可靠性和运行可靠性不完全相同.软件在发布后的使用和维护阶段,软件可靠性的增长不仅体现在软件固有故障的排除,而且用户对软件的熟悉程度也会影响软件的可靠性.本文研究了软件固有故障检测过程、固有故障纠正过程和外在失效过程的特征,建立了考虑用户行为和排错延迟下的多版本软件可靠性增长模型.通过一组来自于开源软件用户缺陷跟踪系统中的真实数据进行数值分析,试验结果表明提出的模型具有较好的效果.     

基于PCA和相位差校正法的风切变预警算法

为了提高相干激光雷达风切变预警算法的预警率,提出一种基于主成分分析（principal component analysis,PCA）和相位差校正法的风切变预警算法。首先,利用PCA对雷达回波信号进行低阶主成分向量提取以实现信号重构,提高信噪比。其次,采用基于快速傅里叶变换的相位差校正法对回波信号峰值频率进行校正,降低回波信号能量泄露。然后,分别利用旋转电机实验数据和小型飞机实验数据对所提算法进行性能评估。结果表明,采用所提算法估计相干激光雷达回波信号峰值频率的平均绝对误差为0.26 MHz,对实际低空风切变的预警率为92.31%。所提算法可以有效降低相干激光雷达回波信号频率估计误差,实现低空风切变预警。     

Short‐term salmon price forecasting

This study establishes a benchmark for short‐term salmon price forecasting. The weekly spot price of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon is predicted 1–5 weeks ahead using data from 2007 to 2014. Sixteen alternative forecasting methods are considered, ranging from classical time series models to customized machine learning techniques to salmon futures prices. The best predictions are delivered by k‐nearest neighbors method for 1 week ahead; vector error correction model estimated using elastic net regularization for 2 and 3 weeks ahead; and futures prices for 4 and 5 weeks ahead. While the nominal gains in forecast accuracy over a naïve benchmark are small, the economic value of the forecasts is considerable. Using a simple trading strategy for timing the sales based on price forecasts could increase the net profit of a salmon farmer by around 7%.     

滞后中立型线性离散系统的滞后无关稳定性判据

给出了几个滞后中立型线性离散系统稳定性的充分条件，由于这些条件与滞后无关且形成简单，对于初步判定其稳定性提供了有用的工具。     

Bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive model: new alternatives with applications to tourism forecasting

This paper proposes the use of the bias‐corrected bootstrap for interval forecasting of an autoregressive time series with an arbitrary number of deterministic components. We use the bias‐corrected bootstrap based on two alternative bias‐correction methods: the bootstrap and an analytic formula based on asymptotic expansion. We also propose a new stationarity‐correction method, based on stable spectral factorization, as an alternative to Kilian's method exclusively used in past studies. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare small‐sample properties of prediction intervals. The results show that the bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals proposed in this paper exhibit desirable small‐sample properties. It is also found that the bootstrap bias‐corrected prediction intervals based on stable spectral factorization are tighter and more stable than those based on Kilian's stationarity‐correction. The proposed methods are applied to interval forecasting for the number of tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models

This paper investigates potential invariance of mean forecast errors to structural breaks in the data generating process. From the general forecasting literature, such robustness is expected to be a rare occurrence. With the aid of a stylized macro model we are able to identify some economically relevant cases of robustness and to interpret them economically. We give an interpretation in terms of co‐breaking. The analytical results resound well with the forecasting record of a medium‐scale econometric model of the Norwegian economy.     

非那西丁-β-环糊精包合物制备的研究

采用固相研磨和饱和水溶液两种方法将非那西丁与β-环糊精制备成包合物,并确定其最佳包合比例1∶3.固体研磨法比饱和水溶液法更易于在实际生产中应用:它耗时少--较饱和水溶液法节省4倍以上的时间;可以在较低温度下制备.     

T-S模糊时滞系统的鲁棒无源控制

基于Lyapunov稳定性理论,时具有参数不确定性的T-S模糊时滞系统的鲁棒稳定性和无源性进行了研究.具有参数不确定性的T-S模糊模型可以任意精度近似连续非线性不确定系统.假设系统中的参数不确定性是范数有界的.运用Lyapunov稳定性理论给出了鲁棒无源控制器存在的充分条件.通过解一组线性矩阵不等式(LMIs),可直接获得鲁棒无源控制器.所设计的鲁棒无源控制器能够保证对于T-S模糊时滞系统中所有的参数不确定性,闭环系统都是鲁棒稳定的并且是严格无源的.并且,通过求解带有约束条件的线性矩阵不等式问题,可以设计出具有最大耗散率的鲁棒无源控制器.数值例子验证了所提出设计方法的有效性.     

一种新型的速度和加速度估计器

将扩张状态观测器和递归线性平滑牛顿预测器相结合,形成了一种新型的速度和加速度估计器,它在跟踪位移和估计速度的同时能一并估计出加速度.虽然扩张状态观测器本身对量测噪声已经具有较好的滤波特性,但为了减小时间延迟,不能使滤波参数过大,这样会使估计出的加速度噪声稍高,需再用递归线性平滑牛顿预测器对加速度进行二次滤波.仿真结果表明,由扩张状态观测器和递归线性平滑牛顿预测器构成的滤波估计器在仅有位置量测信号且在噪声较大的情况下能有效地估计出速度和加速度,最终得到的速度和加速度估计信噪比高且时间延迟小.该估计器主要用于运动控制和机动目标跟踪中.     

多速率敏感无线多跳网中最小化延迟多播路由

针对物理层提供的多速率传输特性,研究了最小化多播延迟的问题。其主要思想是上游节点将对数据包的一次低传输速率广播换成若干次传输速率不同的广播,达到最小化多播延迟的目标。首先将该问题模型化为一个最优化问题,然后提出了一个分布式最小化延迟的多播路由DMDMR算法,并且证明了该算法能够取得最优值。大量模拟实验结果表明,与上游节点对数据包只进行一次广播的经典技术相比,DMDMR算法可降低多播延迟17%以上。